CAPE Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 4 minutes ago, George BM said: I'll definitely become a little more intrigued for the Wed/Thurs shortwave if timing can change a bit. It's probably easier to root for a slightly faster system (late Wed) rather than a slower system (Thurs) as of now as slowing it down by 18 hours may be a bit of a tall order compared to speeding it up by 6 hours. Either trend would maximize daytime heating as you probably know. Yep, at this range there is plenty of uncertainty with exact location of the front, timing of disturbances etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4 Author Share Posted June 4 CIPS has a few decent analogs in the 120hr range. June 16, 2008 is in there in the midwest sector. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 @Kmlwx @yoda Fourteen years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS has a few decent analogs in the 120hr range. June 16, 2008 is in there in the midwest sector. Reviewing it... I like how the morning Day 2 was like oh 15% off to our west... afternoon update hatched introduced lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080616 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4 Author Share Posted June 4 Just now, yoda said: Reviewing it... I like how the morning Day 2 was like oh 15% off to our west... afternoon update hatched introduced lol June 2008 was one of our significant stretches. Will be interesting to see if any of the other June 2008 events pop up in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Just now, Kmlwx said: June 2008 was one of our significant stretches. Will be interesting to see if any of the other June 2008 events pop up in the next few weeks. Wonder if its last time we had 30% hatched hail over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Probably won't see hail sizes this large again in a watchbox for our region unless we get some huge EML lol URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4 Author Share Posted June 4 June is definitely a month we can really go wild with severe in these parts. EML helps, of course, as does having decent shear before things get weak in that regard into summer - and hot hot hot temps to fuel storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 30 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably won't see hail sizes this large again in a watchbox for our region unless we get some huge EML lol URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Where did you retrieve this?... As I cannot seem to retrieve it from SPCs Severe Watches archive ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 2 minutes ago, George BM said: Where did you retrieve this?... As I cannot seem to retrieve it from SPCs Severe Watches archive ATM. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080616 Left side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 5 minutes ago, yoda said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080616 Left side This is actually the site that wasn't working for me. But now it finally started loading. But still, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 9 minutes ago, yoda said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080616 Left side BTW, with that watch the probs were: TOR: 20/5 WIND: 80/40 HAIL: 70/30 And just in case you're curious the first 20080604 watch had the same wind and hail probs but with 40/20 tornado probs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: June is definitely a month we can really go wild with severe in these parts. EML helps, of course, as does having decent shear before things get weak in that regard into summer - and hot hot hot temps to fuel storms. We fight so many subtle geographic features here. These can be overcome with good EML and shear. Throw in a NW flow event and you're talking dirty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4 Author Share Posted June 4 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We fight so many subtle geographic features here. These can be overcome with good EML and shear. Throw in a NW flow event and you're talking dirty. I finally have a weekend where I'm not running around a ton. Getting some outdoor activities in today, but hoping to look at the next period in more detail this evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Probably won't see hail sizes this large again in a watchbox for our region unless we get some huge EML lolURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT.HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.Hail the size of canned hams?(Reference for Gen Xers) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 So my best friend CIPS isn't particularly exciting for anything both in the standard and extended range. HOWEVER, I'd be lying if I said i wasn't kind of excited for the day 10-15 period. GFS/Euro and their ensembles have some form of a big ridge to our west setting up. The exact position and "tilt" of this ride varies (of course...this far out it's to be expected). But almost all of them put us on the eastern side of a sprawling ridge...could be good for NW flow events if the stars align. Not saying the D-word this far out - but we might start to see some big time analogs on CIPS if the general looks keeps up. The 6z GFS has a high parameter day or two around the 270ish hour mark (usually GFS is pretty conservative on supercell composite paramter). This is from the 0z GEFS - I'd take this as a severe weenie And here's the Euro Ensembles So you can see the ridge axis and position varies - but on that EC ENS run it kind of wiggles around a bit before and after this frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: So my best friend CIPS isn't particularly exciting for anything both in the standard and extended range. HOWEVER, I'd be lying if I said i wasn't kind of excited for the day 10-15 period. GFS/Euro and their ensembles have some form of a big ridge to our west setting up. The exact position and "tilt" of this ride varies (of course...this far out it's to be expected). But almost all of them put us on the eastern side of a sprawling ridge...could be good for NW flow events if the stars align. Not saying the D-word this far out - but we might start to see some big time analogs on CIPS if the general looks keeps up. The 6z GFS has a high parameter day or two around the 270ish hour mark (usually GFS is pretty conservative on supercell composite paramter). This is from the 0z GEFS - I'd take this as a severe weenie And here's the Euro Ensembles So you can see the ridge axis and position varies - but on that EC ENS run it kind of wiggles around a bit before and after this frame. Central US ridges and NW flow over the Mid-Atlantic in June = a happy weenie A happy SEVERE weenie people! Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 Just now, George BM said: Central US ridges and NW flow over the Mid-Atlantic in June = a happy weenie A happy SEVERE weenie people! Calm down. @ravensrule would be in here in 2 seconds with a comment like that. I've just gone down the rabbit hole reading the "Noteworthy Derecho Events" page on the SPC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 Here's some selected ones - along with the PSU Reanalysis maps for each. 1) July 4-5, 1980 - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul4-51980page.htm 2) July 10-11, 2011 (I don't remember this one for some reason!) Not even going to include June 29, 2012 as we all know that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 We'll have to watch for the EML aspect of the upcoming period as well. The more recent GFS runs have sent most of the EML advecting north and east and not really into our region. However, the 18z GFS yesterday did move a pretty good EML for a big part of the east coast in the 270hr time frame. That stuff is far from being worked out. As stated above, the upper air pattern is the only thing I'm looking at with any seriousness this far out. Looking at where any EML is situated this far out is like tracking the rain/snow line in a fantasy 240+hr GFS snowstorm in winter. Guessing we have "higher than normal" odds at some decent severe...but whether the X-factors line up for us will determine (and luck, of course) whether it's something memorable or just a few days of hot weather afternoon storms with a pulsey nature. Reminder that our derecho climo around here is 1 derecho every 4 years (I think it's a bit higher to the north and west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 12z GFS continues to look intriguing around the June 15th timeframe. Afternoon of June 15th on this run has 5000+ SBCAPE, nearly 4000 MLCAPE (over 4000 to the NW of the metro areas). Ripe supercell composite maps as well. Really impressive considering it's the GFS and not the NAM. Again, it's a eternity away at that timeframe...but it keeps the general potential on the table. Pulling a model forecast sounding from near the M/D line in northern Maryland yields this on the College of Dupage site - SFC CAPE = 5425 ML CAPE = 4554 SFC LI = -12 Sfc to 1km shear = 18kts Sfc to 3km shear = 32kts Sfc to 1km SRH = 116 Supercell Composite = 26.0 STP (cin) = 4.2 STP (fix) = 3.6 PWATS over 2 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: 12z GFS continues to look intriguing around the June 15th timeframe. Afternoon of June 15th on this run has 5000+ SBCAPE, nearly 4000 MLCAPE (over 4000 to the NW of the metro areas). Ripe supercell composite maps as well. Really impressive considering it's the GFS and not the NAM. Again, it's a eternity away at that timeframe...but it keeps the general potential on the table. Pulling a model forecast sounding from near the M/D line in northern Maryland yields this on the College of Dupage site - SFC CAPE = 5425 ML CAPE = 4554 SFC LI = -12 Sfc to 1km shear = 18kts Sfc to 3km shear = 32kts Sfc to 1km SRH = 116 Supercell Composite = 26.0 STP (cin) = 4.2 STP (fix) = 3.6 PWATS over 2 inches. I really hope we get a pattern similar to what's being advertised by the GFS. Obvious uber-long range caveat aside, that would easily be a MOD risk worthy day from the MidAtl up into the Northeast verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 8 minutes ago, George BM said: I really hope we get a pattern similar to what's being advertised by the GFS. Obvious uber-long range caveat aside, that would easily be a MOD risk worthy day from the MidAtl up into the Northeast verbatim. As advertised...the GFS would seem to be a single day (maybe 2) potential and then things clear out. But you'd think if that ridge setup shop for any decent length of time, as the window gets closer more sustained chances could show up. Reminds me a bit of model watching for KU patterns in winter - if a window is real, threats show up later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Siri, tell me what starts with D and ends in echo 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Siri, tell me what starts with D and ends in echo C'mon man...I don't know much about severe, but I can't imagine you can predict that ahead of time, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: C'mon man...I don't know much about severe, but I can't imagine you can predict that ahead of time, lol You can't. But the pattern fits. You also can't predict a KU 10 days out, but you can assess that the pattern could be favorable! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 I know this is days late! This was what the storms that came through and caused the wind damage and hail last week looked like as they were going through Purcellville. I did not take this photo and take no credit for them (Here is the original https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=3196421617280200&set=pcb.2254113818069568) but I saw the same thing! Looked very impressive! What do you all think these are? Reminds me of a rotating storm with a wall cloud. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Hmmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: I know this is days late! This was what the storms that came through and caused the wind damage and hail last week looked like as they were going through Purcellville. I did not take this photo and take no credit for them (Here is the original https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=3196421617280200&set=pcb.2254113818069568) but I saw the same thing! Looked very impressive! What do you all think these are? Reminds me of a rotating storm with a wall cloud. A supercell (rotating storm) tracked right across that area on Thursday, so I think that your guess is spot on. That's clearly a wall cloud extending beneath the rain-free base, with the rain and hail (note the green hues) core on the right side of the picture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 8 minutes ago, high risk said: A supercell (rotating storm) tracked right across that area on Thursday, so I think that your guess is spot on. That's clearly a wall cloud extending beneath the rain-free base, with the rain and hail (note the green hues) core on the right side of the picture Several just east of me were saying they thought they had a tornado. I was hoping to look at the radar at the time, but was unable. I do not know if the NWS was going to take a look or not. BTW, I was pretty sure that is what I was seeing, but I was not going to just say it was without others agreeing. Anyways, I went right under it, but was in a car and not a good spot to photograph it. This was exactly what I saw as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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