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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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10 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:


I didn’t know you un-meh’d from earlier and yesterday… emoji848.pngemoji38.pngemoji854.png

:lol: I un-mehed as the line was rolling in earlier. Didn't hit severe here - and no damage IMBY - but it was a nice storm. 

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SPC mesoanalysis shows belt of 40-60kt shear from I-66 down to CHO coinciding with SBCAPE recovering. Wouldn't shock me if we get a lower end severe thunderstorm watch later today. I'm back up to 71 degrees again at home so we are recovering this airmass somewhat even up in Baltimore.

 

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC mesoanalysis shows belt of 40-60kt shear from I-66 down to CHO coinciding with SBCAPE recovering. Wouldn't shock me if we get a lower end severe thunderstorm watch later today. I'm back up to 71 degrees again at home so we are recovering this airmass somewhat even up in Baltimore.

 

Have gone form 65 or 66 back up to 69 now in Colesville. Getting little hints of sunshine now. Though it's not like high noon anymore. Not sure how much heating the sun will provide late in the day. 

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mcd0941.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0941
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

   Areas affected...Central NC into central/eastern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272026Z - 272230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two
   will be possible with renewed storm development into early evening.
   Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues to gradually increase in coverage
   and intensity this afternoon across parts of central NC into VA,
   near a weakly confluent surface trough, with a few cells
   occasionally showing weak midlevel rotation. This trend is expected
   to continue into early evening, as a midlevel cyclone approaches the
   region from the west. Increasing midlevel flow and deep-layer shear
   (as noted on recent VWPs from KFCX and KRAX) will continue to
   support some potential for organized storms, including the potential
   for stronger clusters and/or a few marginal supercells. 

   Instability is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg
   will support some severe potential, with locally damaging wind gusts
   the most likely threat, though marginally severe hail and a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell into early
   evening. Watch issuance is possible across this area, depending on
   short-term observational and guidance trends regarding a
   sufficiently widespread severe threat.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
445 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Roanoke County in west central Virginia...
  South central Rockbridge County in west central Virginia...
  The City of Roanoke in west central Virginia...
  Northern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
  Southeastern Botetourt County in west central Virginia...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Laymantown,
  or near Troutville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Roanoke...
  Vinton...
  Buchanan...
  Glasgow...
  Troutville...
  Stewartsville...
  and Montvale.

This includes The following Location Roanoke Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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I'm thinking we have a solid chance at round two down this way. Sun is poking out and the air feels thick. We're up to 75/66 after dropping to 66/63 around 10:30am this morning during the heavy stuff.

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Latest SPC mesoanalysis has Cville back over 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, with the 2000 line not far off.

That seems like enough to work with.

sbcp.gif?1653685715925

 

MLCAPE not nearly as robust, but it is changing quickly.

mlcp.gif?1653685930610

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8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Man, that cell south of Bedford looks like it is trying to spin up.. we will see. Not good. 

LYH storm warned for 60mph winds and hail to half dollar size and tor possible tag

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Quote
Increasing midlevel flow and deep-layer shear
   (as noted on recent VWPs from KFCX and KRAX) will continue to
   support some potential for organized storms, including the potential
   for stronger clusters and/or a few marginal supercells. 

:lol:

...

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Haven't seen a STF like this before 

 

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
537 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

VAZ036-272230-
Nelson-
537 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.NOW...

At 533 PM EDT, two severe thunderstorms were moving northeast
through Amherst County at 45 mph.  These storms should move into
Nelson County around 600 PM.

Residents and visitors in Nelson County should prepare to take cover
in the upcoming hour.  Be prepared for the likelihood of wind gusts
to 60 MPH and large hail.

Locations impacted include...
Shipman, Schuyler, Wintergreen, Nellysford, Arrington, Lovingston,
Bryant, Piney River, Tye River, Allens Creek, Roseland, Tyro,
Rockfish, Buffalo Springs, Greenfield, Norwood, Five Forks,
Jonesboro, Wingina and Gladstone.
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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC mesoanalysis shows belt of 40-60kt shear from I-66 down to CHO coinciding with SBCAPE recovering. Wouldn't shock me if we get a lower end severe thunderstorm watch later today. I'm back up to 71 degrees again at home so we are recovering this airmass somewhat even up in Baltimore.

 

You win again good sir

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   545 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Southern Maryland
     East-central North Carolina
     Central to eastern Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A few discrete cells with transient supercell structures
   should persist for a few hours as they spread northeast, mainly
   across portions of Virginia.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
   Washington DC to 10 miles west southwest of Goldsboro NC. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
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Just now, yoda said:

TW up from RNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
551 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia...
  Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Amherst County in central Virginia... The 
  southeastern portion of City of Lynchburg in central Virginia...

* Until 615 PM EDT.
    
* At 550 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Bocock, or near Rustburg, moving northeast at 25
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lynchburg...
  Appomattox...
  Concord...
  Rustburg...
  Appomattox National Historic Park...
  Riverville...
  and Stonewall.

This includes The following Locations Liberty University and
Lynchburg Airport.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued
for the same area.

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted. :weenie: 

It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north. 

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