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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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Latest from Sterling NWS….keep tracking Th. and Friday.

Heading into the latter portions of the work week, a great deal of
uncertainty looms regarding the temperature and precipitation
forecast. The mentioned cold front remains over the Carolinas while
the Mid-Atlantic becomes wedged in as high pressure builds to the
north and northwest. As a result, Thursday`s temperatures drop back
into the upper 30s to low 40s. Ensemble temperature plots depict
quite a bit of spread, particularly on the higher end of the
spectrum. As the strong upper trough exits the Four Corners and
migrates toward the Ohio Valley, modest ascent ahead of this feature
will drive additional rounds of precipitation. Depending on the
timing and thermal profiles, some of this may be wintry in nature.
Given the stout surface high to the north, this potential for wintry
precipitation appears reasonable as shown by the guidance. As
southerly warm advection will override the boundary, freezing rain
would be a concern in this pattern. However, a number of details
need to be resolved first. The entire system eventually exits some
time on Friday with possible mountain snow showers on the back
side.

 

 

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1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period.

 

image.thumb.png.b1123d644215ddf22f12ef1ce6fdd819.png

image.thumb.png.82c120fd877674f1984fe086a5969e82.png

 

image.thumb.png.339553e90e2c5122dd0dcc0e64c431b0.png

Yeah, even taking the ice accumulation with a huge grain of salt and all, it's a real sleet bomb a bit north of DC and potentially significant ice within the metro area.  From what I saw, temperatures around DCA get maybe a bit above freezing, but still at or below that in the NW suburbs and farther out.  Don't mean to parse such details at this time, but just what it shows.  Looks like after 18Z Friday temperatures drop a good bit.

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2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I'm still pretty new to this area, but isn't CAD generally underdone at this range? Or maybe not since this is not the traditional CAD look?

Oh I think it's a traditional CAD situation with that big, cold high to the north pressing in.  I know the GFS maybe doesn't handle details of that, especially at this range, yet it's still showing quite the signature.  But offsetting that is whether the GFS is possibly overdoing the cold push.  Those details remain to be determined, I guess.  But if it's pretty well correct in handling the synoptic situation, it could be an ugly ice event (but quite interesting, to be sure!!).

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1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

3” Of sleet haha terrible 

3" of sleet, and if you take the GFS verbatim it would turn into a block of ice that night!  I know several in here don't care for sleet or ice, but really that's all we're looking at here for this event in terms of wintry weather.  It doesn't really look like we'll get any snow from this.  Personally, in that case, I'd prefer a more "interesting" ice/sleet event over a dull, cold rain.  But that's just me.

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7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

3" of sleet, and if you take the GFS verbatim it would turn into a block of ice that night!  I know several in here don't care for sleet or ice, but really that's all we're looking at here for this event in terms of wintry weather.  It doesn't really look like we'll get any snow from this.  Personally, in that case, I'd prefer a more "interesting" ice/sleet event over a dull, cold rain.  But that's just me.

The VD sleet storm of 07 if that’s the right year was awful. Hours upon hours of wind driven sleet. Couldn’t even sleep that night cause the sleet was pounding my window like a damn power washer. 

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The "CAPE storm" looks like it slides off to the southeast for that Monday.  But the signal is still there for what it's worth.

The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days.

Yup.  We'll see probably several outcomes in the upcoming week.  And see if it actually turns into anything for us.  But it is worth keeping an eye on like you said earlier and could be one of those "sneaky" events that we weren't much looking at before.

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Wrt the Feb 27- March 1 period, HH GEFS seems to have a few subsets among the members- one brings energy out sooner and has as storm for Sunday into Monday, and most of that group(around 10) has a wave but keeps it suppressed. There are 2 or 3 nice hits for our area. The second subset seems to dampen the initial wave and has a stronger one a day or so later. There are 5 hits for the region in that group, 3 look like significant snow events, the other 2 are snow/mix to rain. The other group suggests snow showers or not much of anything. Upshot is this is a period to keep an eye on, and there is a pretty solid signal on the guidance given this is 8+ days out.

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