Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Snowpack 6 inches. Will be reporting again tomorrow morning. Thanks for the ob. This is worth knowing, since snowcover naturally has an impact on low-level temps (as well as fog formation, potentially dense, later today). It's getting pretty patchy here, especially under trees and on the usual south-facing slopes. Should be relegated to piles before long. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Most models have me changing to ZR around midnight. The question up here is how much ZR and how much sleet. NWS still calling for around .25 of ZR and 1-2 inches of sleet/snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Thanks for the ob. This is worth knowing, since snowcover naturally has an impact on low-level temps (as well as fog formation, potentially dense, later today). It's getting pretty patchy here, especially under trees and on the usual south-facing slopes. Should be relegated to piles before long. About 6-7” on average down here, some exposed spots are bare. It’s resilient because of the water content but I doubt there’s much left by the time we go below freezing again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS won't back down. You really think that is plausible??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Greg g said: You really think that is plausible??? As a reminder, the QPF maps cannot be taken 100% verbatim. Chop them down by 30-40% and you come away with the likelier results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Greg g said: You really think that is plausible??? Of course it is or I wouldn't bother posting it. It has most areas North of I-80 below freezing by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: As a reminder, the QPF maps cannot be taken 100% verbatim. Chop them down by 30-40% and you come away with the likelier results. It's not a one size fits all scenario. 0.5" will accrete much faster at 28 degrees than it would 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 19 degrees in Poughkeepsie, 22 degrees in Warwick and 30 degrees in White Plains at the same hour. The real cold air isn't far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12Z HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 LOL at the GGEM. 20 degree drop in six hours. I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: 12Z HREF This makes perfect sense to me given the setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: LOL at the GGEM. 20 degree drop in six hours. I don't think so. 52 in HPN and 28 in Pou is quite a sharp gradient. Ukie has looked similar too with how warm it gets but I think these two models are overdone with the warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 52 in HPN and 28 in Pou is quite a sharp gradient. Ukie has looked similar too with how warm it gets but I think these two models are overdone with the warm push. The long range HRRR is similar. Watching for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The OPC surface prog may give you an idea why the warmer solutions are in play Dual Lows on the front if you are smart enough to login to the forum you are smart enough to make your own forecast -imho or just follow the smart ass poster you trust 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 52 in HPN and 28 in Pou is quite a sharp gradient. Ukie has looked similar too with how warm it gets but I think these two models are overdone with the warm push. I’m at 44° right now. Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I’m at 44° right now. Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing I'm currently projected to stay well above freezing until early afternoon tomorrow. Precip appears to be essentially over by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, matt8204 said: I'm currently projected to stay well above freezing until early afternoon tomorrow. Precip appears to be essentially over by then. 22 hours ago, Doorman said: Current Critical Thickness Prog & Intellicast Rain/Snow Radar Overlay matches up nicely... I think most of the metro will warm sector until the bitter end -link to radar for those on the fringe - https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current spc meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I’m at 44° right now. Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing Yes but I would expect the 50s to be more so up to Central NJ and maybe south shore of LI. We'll see though. Either way no ones snowpack south of I84 is probably surviving this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: 12Z HREF Seems reasonable in terms of where the farthest extent of the ZR would get while any meaningful precip is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The OPC surface prog may give you an idea why the warmer solutions are in playDual Lows on the front if you are smart enough to login to the forum you are smart enough to make your own forecast -imhoor just follow the smart ass poster you trust I'm here for the free mapsSent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I'm surprised Orange and Putnam Counties are not under an ice storm warning. The temp clash is going to create a lot of juice and it could get dangerous on the cold side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Euro has NYC at 46 and HPN at 32 tomorrow at 12z. Can't recall a storm with a gradient that sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 12z Euro gets extreme NNJ and the Hudson Valley below freezing by 12z. That's the key. It actually trended 1-2 degrees colder at this hour than the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro gets extreme NNJ and the Hudson Valley below freezing by 12z. That's the key. It actually trended 1-2 degrees colder at this hour than the 00z run. You can just see if the timing is off by a few miles one way or another it can dramatically impact this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro has NYC at 46 and HPN at 32 tomorrow at 12z. Can't recall a storm with a gradient that sharp. I think the reason for the warm tongue into Sullivan County is because of the difference in elevation. The cold air is very shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: You can just see if the timing is off by a few miles one way or another it can dramatically impact this storm. If it gets colder even an hour or two sooner it's going to make a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Reminder to use the FRAM estimates available on PivotalWx for ice accretion and not ZR QPF. It's a much better (and scientifically sound) method for estimating/forecasting icing events. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro gets extreme NNJ and the Hudson Valley below freezing by 12z. That's the key. It actually trended 1-2 degrees colder at this hour than the 00z run. I get it that we should look at all the models up until game time but at this point shouldn't we put more stock in what the short range models are showing ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A 3.4 degree drop here in the last hour, interesting. 40.7 with light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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