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January 28th/29th Event Obs - From KU to FU?


JTA66
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1 hour ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Seems like CBS3 is most aggressive with the totals showing 6-8" for PHL.No one else seems to be going past 2/4 3/6 I wonder what they are seeing that the other channels aren't.

I guess no one forecasts on snow ratios anymore Hmmm???  It will be snowing at 22-25 degrees I would think snow ratios of 15:1 so if the model is showing you 4-6" you can end up with 6-10".  I don't know maybe I am missing something here??

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15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I guess no one forecasts on snow ratios anymore Hmmm???  It will be snowing at 22-25 degrees I would think snow ratios of 15:1 so if the model is showing you 4-6" you can end up with 6-10".  I don't know maybe I am missing something here??

I would add dendrite growth with the wind begs for tiny flakes and lower ratios. Not low low, but more towards 12:1.

 

 

this place could be rocking after 00z. EPS spread is west, and boy the ensembles are dragging west!

0635996B-B0CB-4A9D-91B4-E63258B7CB9F.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, kpantz said:

SREF plumes for total snow have gone up in E PA (KABE) if you compare 21Z to 15Z.  Seems to be something else on which to hang ultimately dashed hopes. :)

I was just looking at those myself.  Rooting for you guys to score; one SREF member has 30" for PHL.  Better ride that one!  Mean is 8.31" in Philly.  That's almost double the previous run.

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45 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I guess no one forecasts on snow ratios anymore Hmmm???  It will be snowing at 22-25 degrees I would think snow ratios of 15:1 so if the model is showing you 4-6" you can end up with 6-10".  I don't know maybe I am missing something here??

 

28 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

I would add dendrite growth with the wind begs for tiny flakes and lower ratios. Not low low, but more towards 12:1.

 

 

this place could be rocking after 00z. EPS spread is west, and boy the ensembles are dragging west!

0635996B-B0CB-4A9D-91B4-E63258B7CB9F.jpeg

The wind will limit ratio's, breaking down the dendrites.

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8 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

That's totally not the point. We're all junkies for digital snow, and the anticipation for such an event is like buying a lotto ticket. Most likely not a winner, but could be...

I just took a look at the SREFs and there's a panel showing that other low.  Someone posted about it actually still being around coming off of Florida and then heading up to the NE with the Carolina low chasing it and you sortof see that here.  So it seems the east-west jogs might be associated with that interaction.

srefs-18z-jan29-31-storm-01272022-annotated.png

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35 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

I don’t know anything about anything but do you think a wind advisory is warranted in these western areas?
 

 

Miss being your neighbor to the north, Di. Well, I guess I still am, just much farther now lol. I dunno, NAM has upwards of 15-25 knot winds Saturday night peaking around 8pm if I'm reading it right, while the GFS tops out at 15 knots. So pretty gusty for sure, but nothing super spectacular. 

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3 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Ralph, I want your take on it. What are you thinking for PHL given the discrepancies? Go with middle ground Euro rather than higher NAM and lower GFS?

5-10" Philly...probably.closer to the lower end but giving some wiggle room for another bump west.

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