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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Did  someone say the super duper awesome fantastic  conditions  were  coming? East  Pac says this  is a super el nino.

 

This  is horrific  for MDR development. A cat 5 cut  off  low wandering around the  middle  of the Atlantic. Tropics  killer

 

TICK, TICK, TICK. CSU should  have went  6/3/1 for the rest  of the season and we  might  not  make that  with a  very  real probability The Fast and Furious watch will be  cancelled, no wheel, no euro super ridge, and the east  pac popping  canes  like bees to honey.

k. meanwhile

ec-fast_uv850_vort_eatl_5.thumb.png.0b1df4f7dd8bf935f616ce37d5d2feba.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, StruThiO said:

k. meanwhile

ec-fast_uv850_vort_eatl_5.thumb.png.0b1df4f7dd8bf935f616ce37d5d2feba.png

 

 

 This is the MDR wave that many of us have been discussing since it has been on many ensemble member runs of the various ensembles the last few days. It doesn't take the "super duper awesome fantastic" conditions ldub referred to for this to occur. Normal mid August climo conditions are all that is needed. So, this is quite believable imho. Also, before ldub says anything: IF it were to not form, it wouldn't portend much about later in the month and beyond. IF this were to form and IF this were to recurve safely away from land, that wouldn't portend much for the remainder of the season either as many TCs that form that far east do just that even during La Nina and even during mid-August. Then again, safe recurve chances are near the lowest of the season around mid August (even though they're not small) and those chances are generally lower during La Nina vs other ENSO. So, one to watch for sure.

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The  good  news and the  bad  news.

 

JLEx9Vf.png

 

The  good  news  is  both the GFS and  Euro develop a  very  weak low that  might  be  a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very  unfavorable  conditions  in the west atl and  poof. This  overall pattern remains horrific  for  anything worth  following. Gigantic  low  in the  central ATL plunging  more dry air  into the tropics. Mega trof  remains  entrenched along and  off the east  coast. Nothing  fast and  furious about this  pattern. If that  low locks  in then there  is  no hurricane season. Looks  like the  MJO and  the  moisture  is  still locked and  loaded  in the east  pac. Not  sure  i have seen a worse  looking  map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats  its worth  that super  central atlantic  low should  cause additional warming  in the tropical sst's.

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7 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Funny thing about this forum. I can always tell what the latest turn of events is with regard to the Atlantic Hurricane Season by who has the last post

 

If the last post is from IDUB then the latest thinking is bearish.

If the last post is from Cptcatz thanthe latest thinking is bullish 

lol I didn't think I come across too bullish.  But...

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

The  good  news and the  bad  news.

 

JLEx9Vf.png

 

The  good  news  is  both the GFS and  Euro develop a  very  weak low that  might  be  a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very  unfavorable  conditions  in the west atl and  poof. This  overall pattern remains horrific  for  anything worth  following. Gigantic  low  in the  central ATL plunging  more dry air  into the tropics. Mega trof  remains  entrenched along and  off the east  coast. Nothing  fast and  furious about this  pattern. If that  low locks  in then there  is  no hurricane season. Looks  like the  MJO and  the  moisture  is  still locked and  loaded  in the east  pac. Not  sure  i have seen a worse  looking  map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats  its worth  that super  central atlantic  low should  cause additional warming  in the tropical sst's.

I'll do my part with a bullish response here.  Models are starting to come into agreement that cyclogenesis will occur in about 4-5 days.  Then you're talking about what conditions might look like in 10+ days.  Models have zero idea what conditions look like 10 days down the road.  Whenever I think of that, I always go back to Dorian.  Here were the EPS 10 day ensembles:

1DEuMOj.png

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Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south image.thumb.gif.90409437c4bd5fda5505f1db4fbad801.gif
That is in the mid- levels however. Though may help to relax the screaming Azores to Saharan link in 700hpa easterly jet for those trains of SAL intrusions. At any rate, we typically see wave breaking slow down around early August as WAR heights increase. If anything, this particular Azores low may allow the ITCZ to gain some latitude before SPHP cell rebuilds. Watching these perturbations play out for years prior to the MDR/CV flips. I think there might be some slight potential for MDR development next week, but I'm not really expecting any substantial increase in activity until around the 21st. The environment is just not there yet. That AEW the models have latched onto needs to have a really good low-level moisture envelope around it and a well established surface low. We'll see in a few days...
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4 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south image.thumb.gif.90409437c4bd5fda5505f1db4fbad801.gif

Atlantic ridge totally  gone. Just when the experts are all in unison on the favorable  conditions arriving we get  stuck with a  massive central atlantic  low and no ridging. What  a  piece  of crap dead season. Have the  "experts  been more wrong?

DT-"August  will be sideways" NOPE

JB-Fast and  furious watch-NOPE

Another  1954-NOPE

The Wheel-NOPE

CSU-18/8/4 Still way too high

 

At least  winter time  conditions will arrive early  putting an end to the Non-season.

 

Next up: The super duper awesome fantastic favorable  condidtions will arrive  by  Sept 15. Without ridging  it  doesnt  matter  how  many canes form. Its all zippity doo dah bebop east  of  Bermuda.

 

And while the Atlantic ridge said "So long, Suckers" the  overall pattern  remains. Mega west ATL trof. This  is why im confident of a  very  early  ending  season.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

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 Looks to me like all is going according to how it has looked in recent days with a good chance (I think it is now up to 2/3 chance) for an MDR TC to form in less than a week. That would still be only August 13th or earlier with four NS with the most active two month period climowise still just ahead of then.

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Euro a bit less enthusiastic on the wave. However JB says it "MAY" get hyperactive

"In close" will be hard to get unless the mega trof is replaced with the Wheel.

Meanwhile the East Pac  is  hyperactive with 3 lined  up and  more  on the way. For a hyperactive atl that will also have to change.

 

WOW!!!!!!!!!! GFS showing the  first wintertime  low ripping across the eastern US. Earlier than even i thought

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

 

Meanwhile, even though the  "experts" insist the  tropics are primed to come  alive the  Euro is  pathetic thru Aug22. Lets face  it, anyone  now  saying the tropics are  going to come  alive are  just  repeating  climo, nothing  more. They sure as hell better  come alive  if there  is  going to be a season.

 

19d38f29e9139b7be58a448e723d6775.jpg

 

Finally at  hour  384 we  have  1 trof  protective trof  off the  coast while  yet another  one  is slamming east to replace  it. 54 this aint. The whole US coast  is  snug as a  bug  in a rug  with this  pattern.

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3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Euro a bit less enthusiastic on the wave. However JB says it "MAY" get hyperactive

"In close" will be hard to get unless the mega trof is replaced with the Wheel.

Meanwhile the East Pac  is  hyperactive with 3 lined  up and  more  on the way. For a hyperactive atl that will also have to change.

 

WOW!!!!!!!!!! GFS showing the  first wintertime  low ripping across the eastern US. Earlier than even i thought

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

 

Meanwhile, even though the  "experts" insist the  tropics are primed to come  alive the  Euro is  pathetic thru Aug22. Lets face  it, anyone  now  saying the tropics are  going to come  alive are  just  repeating  climo, nothing  more. They sure as hell better  come alive  if there  is  going to be a season.

 

19d38f29e9139b7be58a448e723d6775.jpg

 

Finally at  hour  384 we  have  1 trof  protective trof  off the  coast while  yet another  one  is slamming east to replace  it. 54 this aint. The whole US coast  is  snug as a  bug  in a rug  with this  pattern.

I take those long range forecasts with a grain of salt but those fronts sagging that far south this early in the season is not the norm. 

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I found this  on another  site. The CFS says everyone  yelling about the  favorable  condidtions  coming are  nuts. It  has  1 weak nothing  between aug 20-sept  26.

 

0/0/0 Sept  possible?

 

Pretty amazing really. A few days after CSU says  18/8/4. NOAA about the same, and  JB issues a fast and  furious watch and just  this  morning implies hyperactive  is  coming the CFS takes a dump on them saying  1 nothing  between Aug20 and Sept  26

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32 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I found this  on another  site. The CFS says everyone  yelling about the  favorable  condidtions  coming are  nuts. It  has  1 weak nothing  between aug 20-sept  26.

 

0/0/0 Sept  possible?

0/0/0 is possible, I suppose, but climatology alone, even if the year winds up below average, I'd bet the over every time.    Oh, I'd keep an eye on any front that reaches offshore SE US or the Gulf.

Edit to Add

1983, lowest NS in the satellite era, had a September storm, TS Dean.  

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And I usually don’t take the bait, but that’s just outrageously unlikely.

Has there ever been a 0/0/0 September?  I checked 1983, the slowest season in the satellite era, it has a September storm, but I haven't memorized anything, I rely on Wiki.  A pro-met who used to post here is an editor on the Wikipedia Atlantic seasons pages.

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I easily see a path to 18 / 8 / 5.  September alone can produce nearly half of these numbers when things get going.  Additionally we have no idea what November is going to look like. 

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I found this  on another  site. The CFS says everyone  yelling about the  favorable  condidtions  coming are  nuts. It  has  1 weak nothing  between aug 20-sept  26.

 

0/0/0 Sept  possible?

 

Pretty amazing really. A few days after CSU says  18/8/4. NOAA about the same, and  JB issues a fast and  furious watch and just  this  morning implies hyperactive  is  coming the CFS takes a dump on them saying  1 nothing  between Aug20 and Sept  26

No and definitely not in today's satellite era where everything gets a name 

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  Latest model consensus:

- Very good chance for a TC forming in MDR by mid week. Any potential threat to US east coast would be near Aug 18-22 if it were to get close though any one TC forming that far out, even in La Niña in mid Aug, would have a better chance to either recurve safely offshore or a smaller chance to dissipate OTS. The 0Z CFS, which I don't take seriously for tropical details, fwiw actually has this get very close to the east coast Aug 19-22.

- A followup E MDR TC quite possibly forming ~Aug 18-20 as the Azores-Bermuda high gets reestablished to the north as per many ensemble members. This would have decent potential to get steered to the western basin based on this setup along with it being La Niña near the end of Aug, an often dangerous time for especially the SE US.

- Additional much closer to US geneses mid to late Aug will need to be monitored as alluded to by Ed, especially with the very warm Gulf and off SE coast.

- Thus a 3-4 NS Atlantic August is looking like a good possibility, reenforced by Aug total # of NS climo since 1995:

   1) only one season with no NS, the strong El Niño of 1997

   2) 24 of 27 have had not just 2 but 3+ with only 1997 (super El Niño with 0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Niño with 2) having fewer than 3

  3) Closest ENSO analog (2000) had 4

  4) 1996, 1998, and 1999 had none til Aug 18-19 but all ended up with 4

 

- I never forecasted "hyper" season ACEwise but I continue to expect an active and potentially dangerous season for the US with a guess of 120 ACE. This all appears to still be on track as best as I can possibly tell a week before the climo most active 2 months has even started.

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Agree. Certainly nothing in the modern era (though I'm not as strong with my memory lol) and not in an age where it's so easy to designate short duration systems. 

At any rate, the 0/0/0 thing is a red herring. I still believe it'll be above average, but an underperformer is still on the table if we can't get instability to pick up in the eastern and central Atlantic (which I think it will, though not drastically enough to be hyperactive).

It's getting better, but it's still very ugly out in the tropical Atlantic. You can't sugarcoat that. 

ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

I think the western Atlantic is almost a lock to be active in late August and into September however, where virtually everything that speaks to an active period seems aligned. The caveat is the location of troughs that could make shear unfavorable for development from time to time, but that's normal.

If you get strong AEWs into the western Atlantic, even with an underperforming tropical Atlantic, things will pop in this environment. I feel very confident saying that. 

Keep in mind that in recent years the bulk of high end activity has been focused in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models failing to explicitly show tropical genesis at this range means fairly little to me right now when looking at the overall western Atlantic environment. 

SST Anomaly

ct5km_ssta_v3.1_west_current.png

OHC

ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

Instability--note how the environment is rebounding after the nadir in late July. 
ts_al_eco_THDV.gif

ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

Vertical Shear (850-200mb)--same as above: look at how the environment has broadly improved significantly since the truly dead pattern in July. 

ts_al_eco_VSHD.gif
ts_al_gmx_VSHD.gif

Preseason is over. The climate models have limited utility at this point IMO. Global ensembles are going to need to be used in tandem with current environment analysis. Ensembles will show signals, and the environment will show whether the signal is noise or presents a tangible threat. 

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