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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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Ugh.  Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee.  12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills.  ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there.  So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches.  Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

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14 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Ugh.  Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee.  12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills.  ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there.  So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches.  Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

Feeling your pain here also. Either of our locales could be just dusted or a nice little maxima. 

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19 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Ugh.  Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee.  12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills.  ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there.  So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches.  Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

I am right here with you! You know from being in this area if we get a meso low to form just under the mountains into the upstate we will be in business. The models have a very hard time depicting that small scale feature and if it happens it can wreck a forecast in a heartbeat. I remember the Jan storm of 2003 and watching Eric Thomas break in with upgraded winter storm warnings and upping our advisory totals from 2-3" to 6-10". Also remember the old weather channel radar just pivot on top of the foothills and piedmont and basically snow all night. 

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM continues to go hard. At least it's consistent. And now.we have the RGEM looking better. Can we have two storms in a row that shift for the better just 36 hours out?

Set your expectations for 0 and you won’t be disappointed 

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

GFS out to 36, does not look as good as the night models so far...

Probably the worst run it’s produced with the storm LOL! Crazy that 48 hrs out or so you have the hi-res models with a completely different look. 

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea the GFS is a dumpster fire run

 

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The GFS is ugly... don't even look at it.

Tell you what if it scores a coup here I would be beyond myself. Vastly different look compared to all other guidance. Hell even the damn JMA is tucked AF. So you got Nam/RGEM/JMA (euro to an extent from 18z) vs the GFS with Canadian about to run. 
 

And yes I completely realize I just put the Nam RGEM and JMA all in one group :D

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