Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still have the rest of todays models you cliff jumpers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. FWIW, below are Suffolk County's amounts from that storm: ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ORIENT 30.0 807 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHAMPTON 29.0 615 PM 1/27 PUBLIC MATTITUCK 26.9 404 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER MEDFORD 25.6 100 PM 1/27 PUBLIC ISLIP AIRPORT 24.9 100 PM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER NORTH PATCHOGUE 24.1 1235 PM 1/27 PUBLIC WEST BABYLON 24.0 600 PM 1/27 PUBLIC OAKDALE 23.5 120 PM 1/27 PUBLIC MILLER PLACE 22.0 130 PM 1/27 PUBLIC FLANDERS 22.0 204 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON STATI 22.0 600 PM 1/27 PUBLIC LINDENHURST 21.6 530 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FARMINGVILLE 21.5 330 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER HOLBROOK 21.5 100 PM 1/27 PUBLIC EAST NORTHPORT 21.0 715 PM 1/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 21.0 413 PM 1/27 PUBLIC COMMACK 20.0 1030 AM 1/27 PUBLIC DEER PARK 20.0 1230 PM 1/27 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 20.0 1240 PM 1/27 PUBLIC UPTON 17.1 100 PM 1/27 NWS OFFICE BAY SHORE 16.5 1110 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER TERRYVILLE 16.5 1202 PM 1/27 PUBLIC ST. JAMES 16.0 1100 AM 1/27 PUBLIC YAPHANK 15.7 220 PM 1/27 PUBLIC LAKE RONKONKOMA 14.0 1120 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER OLD FIELD 9.2 212 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER Nassau/Suffolk line in that one was about 18”. My home town of Long Beach had about 15”. I had zero because I was living in Austin TX at the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS consolidating better. Trough is sharper 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: my favorite snowstorm of all time because it was my first real biggie. I did experience the one in 78. This one they talked about days before, almost a week, and were hyping it but then as we got about 24 hours to the event they started to drop totals and yeah they were saying 1-3/2-4. We all went off to school and I remember the snow starting in the morning sometime and it was already past the time they would call the half day. But it was a quick call for early dismissal immediately within the hour. Remember the big flakes that day the numbers kept going and going up...3-6, 4-8, 6-10, 10-14, 12-18 and then finally 18-24. My first experience with Thundersnow. I think we had 23 IMBY, it was insane to experience that and it would be until Jan 1996 I would experience something that topped it. Yes I was just 20 and working as a guard at the Foodtown bread warehouse; the guy I relieved that weekend had been stuck all night. I brought him a ham sandwich; didn't know he was Jewish. He took it anyway, we figured God would let it slide....we all got letters from the security firm praising our dedication and I used that for years when looking for a job. Back when that stuff mattered. No one will even given you a reference anymore. Legal issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: If I get Juno’d again I’m gonna have to think hard about whether this is a hobby I want to continue in my life lol Well at least this time you’d be somewhat prepared. Models keyed in on eastern Suffolk and MA/RI for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Overall everything still looks on track, GFS improved but also with double barrel, if we can knock that out, monster...if not 6-10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NJ central / southern coast has been in and out of a secondary bullseye as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: Overall everything still looks on track, GFS improved but also with double barrel, if we can knock that out, monster...if not 6-10" Yeah if that works itself out then watch out Short term meso watch for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Overall everything still looks on track, GFS improved but also with double barrel, if we can knock that out, monster...if not 6-10" Agree Heavier bands get further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 H5 looks alot better this run. The surface should eventually respond . The elongated low is messing with the models. Is that accurate ? Can be but we have to watch that in later runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks like it closes off earlier 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: NJ central / southern coast has been in and out of a secondary bullseye as well. The Fujiwara thing the double barrel low does allows for heavy snow up to LI and maybe coastal NJ then it kinda dumbbells east. Hopefully we can get rid of that because the trough does look better and the close off is sooner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS has a 982 -> 975 low sit in the same spot (~38/70) for 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Surface doesn't tell you the whole story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Surface doesn't tell you the whole story I dont know it seems like the models are sort of coming into agreement for the most part. its a 4-8 event in north nj and nyc maybe some 6-10 amounts there down to central jersey and 8-14 to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Regarding last minute shifts, I always think about Feb '83 and Feb '89, and how each ultimately played out. - Feb '83 leaving for school that morning the forecast was mostly out to sea, maybe 2-5 . By 3PM with 6" down, NWS (remember the awesome TWC red scroll and even more awesome red background screen?) was still saying only 8-10. Ended up with 16 by me. - Feb '89 leaving for school we were expecting to be crushed. Ended up with not a flake, w/Montauk & AC getting crushed. If this board existed back then, would I have known the real score heading out the door that morning, i.e. was it already really apparent in the morning and TV/radio hadn't caught up yet? How does that compare to today? Remember 83 like yesterday. LFM was east of Hatteras. Obs late morning had southeast wind at Hatteras. High DP / moisture laden air mass being rammed into cold arctic dome. Progress of snow northward was painfully slow. Took 2-3 hours to get from Staten Island to Mid-Town Manhattan. Once it started it came in like a wall. Thunder snow lasted for hours. Intense rates with large flakes. Storm was weak...made it to east of ACY and turned ene OTS. Had 21" in Bayonne and that fell mostly in a 12 hour period. Different setup than this for sure but was a classic nowcasting situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Overall everything still looks on track, GFS improved but also with double barrel, if we can knock that out, monster...if not 6-10" I think we are going to be seeing the double barrel look at some stage because that is the sort of pre-phase thing. I think the mesoscales are where to look because they will be able to resolve 1 hour increments, and we only need 3 or 4 hours earlier phase to make a meaningful difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Northwest lean on the gefs The spread this late is incredible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What’s everyone’s thought on timing of this storm for LI? Time it will begin tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Northwest lean on the gefs The spread this late is incredible It seems pretty clustered to me. The few renegade eastern ones are skewing the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I still think this has room to jog back West later today. The important thing was that the Southern piece ejected and got out ahead of the Northern piece which it has. We're still about 18hrs away from showtime. The atmosphere just seems to be primed for snow. It's been snowing here all morning, you wouldn't see this kind of stuff if just a front was coming through. This reminds me of the PRE before TC landfalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Northwest lean on the gefs The spread this late is incredible Yes it could over perform for some of us too, we'll see. Not every storm is a disappointment; some are nice surprises. We are going to get some snow, this is the bottom line. For some it will be a really disruptive event, but for a lot of us just a nice snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Northwest lean on the gefs The spread this late is incredible east members- double barrel west members- single barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, justinj said: What’s everyone’s thought on timing of this storm for LI? Time it will begin tonight? it's snowing right now, enjoy what we're getting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: east members- double barrel west members- single barrel Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I got flakes up here in westchester. It's not like it's a virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 the models has a very tough time deciphering convective feedback so it stamps lows where there is reasonably most vorticity and upper level exhaust. This is often incorrect. I’d anticipate any low <970mb consolidated 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: the models has a very tough time deciphering convective feedback so it stamps lows where there is reasonably most vorticity and upper level exhaust. This is often incorrect. I’d anticipate any low <970mb consolidated Could you explain the implications of this if possible. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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