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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree.

FWIW, below are Suffolk County's amounts from that storm:

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ORIENT                30.0   807 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SOUTHAMPTON           29.0   615 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   MATTITUCK             26.9   404 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MEDFORD               25.6   100 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   ISLIP AIRPORT         24.9   100 PM  1/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER   
   NORTH PATCHOGUE       24.1  1235 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   WEST BABYLON          24.0   600 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   OAKDALE               23.5   120 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   MILLER PLACE          22.0   130 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   FLANDERS              22.0   204 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PORT JEFFERSON STATI  22.0   600 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   LINDENHURST           21.6   530 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FARMINGVILLE          21.5   330 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HOLBROOK              21.5   100 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   EAST NORTHPORT        21.0   715 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   SHOREHAM              21.0   413 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   COMMACK               20.0  1030 AM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   DEER PARK             20.0  1230 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   SMITHTOWN             20.0  1240 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   UPTON                 17.1   100 PM  1/27  NWS OFFICE              
   BAY SHORE             16.5  1110 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   TERRYVILLE            16.5  1202 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   ST. JAMES             16.0  1100 AM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   YAPHANK               15.7   220 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   LAKE RONKONKOMA       14.0  1120 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OLD FIELD              9.2   212 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER        

Nassau/Suffolk line in that one was about 18”. My home town of Long Beach had about 15”. I had zero because I was living in Austin TX at the time. :( 

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2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

my favorite snowstorm of all time because it was my first real biggie. I did experience the one in 78. This one they talked about days before, almost a week, and were hyping it but then as we got about 24 hours to the event they started to drop totals and yeah they were saying 1-3/2-4. We all went off to school and I remember the snow starting in the morning sometime and it was already past the time they would call the half day. But it was a quick call for early dismissal immediately within the hour. Remember the big flakes that day the numbers kept going and going up...3-6, 4-8, 6-10, 10-14, 12-18 and then finally 18-24.  My first experience with Thundersnow. I think we had 23 IMBY, it was insane to experience that and it would be until Jan 1996 I would experience something that topped it.

Yes I was just 20 and working as a guard at the Foodtown bread warehouse; the guy I relieved that weekend had been stuck all night. I brought him a ham sandwich; didn't know he was Jewish. He took it anyway, we figured God would let it slide....we all got letters from the security firm praising our dedication and I used that for years when looking for a job. Back when that stuff mattered. No one will even given you a reference anymore. Legal issues.

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3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

NJ central / southern coast has been in and out of a secondary bullseye as well. 

The Fujiwara thing the double barrel low does allows for heavy snow up to LI and maybe coastal NJ then it kinda dumbbells east. Hopefully we can get rid of that because the trough does look better and the close off is sooner. 

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32 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Regarding last minute shifts, I always think about Feb '83 and Feb '89, and how each ultimately played out.

- Feb '83 leaving for school that morning the forecast was mostly out to sea, maybe 2-5 .  By 3PM with 6" down, NWS (remember the awesome TWC red scroll and even more awesome red background screen?) was still saying only 8-10.  Ended up with 16 by me.

- Feb '89 leaving for school we were expecting to be crushed.  Ended up with not a flake, w/Montauk & AC getting crushed.

If this board existed back then, would I have known the real score heading out the door that morning, i.e. was it already really apparent in the morning and TV/radio hadn't caught up yet?  How does that compare to today?

 

 

 

Remember 83 like yesterday.  LFM was east of Hatteras.  Obs late morning had southeast wind at Hatteras.  High DP / moisture laden air mass being rammed into cold arctic dome.  Progress of snow northward was painfully slow.  Took 2-3 hours to get from Staten Island to Mid-Town Manhattan.  Once it started it came in like a wall.  Thunder snow lasted for hours.  Intense rates with large flakes. Storm was weak...made it to east of ACY and turned ene OTS.  Had 21" in Bayonne and that fell mostly in a 12 hour period.

Different setup than this for sure but was a classic nowcasting situation.

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11 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Overall everything still looks on track, GFS improved but also with double barrel, if we can knock that out, monster...if not 6-10"

I think we are going to be seeing the double barrel look at some stage because that is the sort of pre-phase thing.  I think the mesoscales are where to look because they will be able to resolve 1 hour increments, and we only need 3 or 4 hours earlier phase to make a meaningful difference.   

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59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still think this has room to jog back West later today.

The important thing was that the Southern piece ejected and got out ahead of the Northern piece which it has.

We're still about 18hrs away from showtime.

500mb_sf.gif?1643382098422

The atmosphere just seems to be primed for snow.  It's been snowing here all morning, you wouldn't see this kind of stuff if just a front was coming through.  This reminds me of the PRE before TC landfalls.

 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Northwest lean on the gefs

The spread this late is incredible 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_5.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_6.png

Yes it could over perform for some of us too, we'll see. Not every storm is a disappointment; some are nice surprises. We are going to get some snow, this is the bottom line. For some it will be a really disruptive event, but for a lot of us just a nice snowfall.

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1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

the models has a very tough time deciphering convective feedback so it stamps lows where there is reasonably most vorticity and upper level exhaust. This is often incorrect. I’d anticipate any low <970mb consolidated

Could you explain the implications of this if possible. Thanks in advance.

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