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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

I missed the Buzzsaw of 2011 (20" in 12 hours), February of 2017 (18" in 10 hours), March of 2018 (21" in 12 hours).  

 

But I FLEW HOME for March 2017 from the Netherlands, missed being on TV there,  sorrento $700, and getting a lap of Zandvoort.  Got home for 9.5" of glop.  I'm 0-3 staying and 0-1 coming home.  Not worth going through the hell.  I'll just accept going 0-4.  

 

And WHY ARE YOU GUYS UP AT 3:30am??  

It's mid afternoon.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

This is how the weenies read the AFDs

  

1/26 00Z guidance continues to boost confidence that we`re in store
for a high impact winter storm in southern New England on Saturday.
The ECMWF guidance is holding steady and all global guidance in
agreement that some locations will experience a 
significant snowfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding. For those that have
been following along, I know you`ve heard it repeated to death, but
the key message continues to be the same: guidance is trending
favorably for a big storm, but the exact track remains uncertain.
This track is what will tell us exactly where the greatest snow,
wind, and coastal flooding concerns are.

The origin of this storm is a broad 500 mb trough that digs into the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night into Saturday. Two shortwaves
within the broader flow, one northern and one southern stream may
phase with each other as they move east. The ECMWF continues to
favor a phasing solution leading to a stronger mid level low which
cuts off more quickly compared to the GFS which keeps these features
more removed and leads to a low that deepens more slowly. Either
way, there is a great deal of confidence that this trough will
generate a surface low off the Carolina coast that will rapidly
intensify as it moves up to New England. Guidance indicates
potential for this storm to undergo bombogenesis, meaning its
central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours. This creates a
very tight pressure gradient, meaning strong, potentially damaging
winds will accompany the snow. Bufkit soundings indicate potential
for gusts to as much as 70 mph for the Cape and islands during the
peak on Saturday. However, again the placement of heaviest winds,
whether or not we deal with a rain/snow line, and extent of coastal
flooding will be more clear as we approach and get a grasp of the
track. Current ensemble guidance indicates a majority of the low
centers passing in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark. If this
comes to pass we`ll be dealing with heavy snow over southeast MA,
strong winds, and potential for white out conditions. 00Z EPS
percentage possibility of a foot or more of snow continues to place
a 60-70% bullseye over southeast Massachusetts.

 

All jokes aside, its good read but nothing most of us don't know already. 

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WxFreak11

WxFreak11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have a better shot for a bigger snowstorm that I do down here in NYC.

We are in a good spot now but ultimately here in RI we always have to battle the rain/snow line and where it sets up. Might not have to worry about it  with this storm but we’ve been burned so many times I just expect it to happen. 

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