Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, LovewellHemp said:

I have a tripped planned to Jefferson NY this weekend with the lady and I'm really debating cancelling. If I go to NY and miss a once in a lifetime storm for RI I might jump off the Newport bridge. If I cancel and we get an average event I will surely be killed in my sleep. If I can score over a foot I might live. What's the likelihood this thing ends up further west and Charlestown RI ends up with another rainer?

Wait till Wednesday or Thursday to cancel 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yea not the first time though. Tempered, it is only Monday 

I don't ever recall a situation quite like this where a storm went poof. Could see us still missing an event though, but it is getting more unlikely every cycle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The narcan cmc snow map seemed to follow the 925 temp profile. 

One thing to remain mindful of is that this isn't like a SW flow event, or even a more pedestrian cyclone in which the entire system, including thermal profile, is tilted.....which introduces precipt type issues further NW. This is going to be vertically stacking, so snowfall should be pretty close to the low as the system matures near out latitude. Now, dry slot is another matter..

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats. How many 30 burgers will this be in your weenie career?

I have had one....4/1/97 was probably a bit short.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats. How many 30 burgers will this be in your weenie career?

I want to see 20 to 30 ft drifts again once in my life. On Rt 3 in Ashaway RI at the end of a half Mile field the drift from 78 completely covered the front of a church and was across the road at 15 feet and near 25 at the church. Ultra cool.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I want to see 20 to 30 ft drifts again once in my life. On Rt 3 in Ashaway RI at the end of a half Mile field the drift from 78 completely covered the front of a church and was across the road at 15 feet and near 25 at the church. Ultra cool.

Sounds like cape in 2005.

[LovewellHemp]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I'd risk being murdered in my sleep. 

I'm leaning in that direction 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Navy is no longer out to sea. Now we have all 3 of the big 3 showing a blizzard. Seeing the Navy this far north adds credibility to the Canadian track.

NAVGEM much slower than GFS and Euro.  Not as amped.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing to remain mindful of is that this isn't like a SW flow event, or even a more pedestrian cyclone in which the entire system, including thermal profile, is tilted.....which introduces precipt type issues further NW. This is going to be vertically stacking, so snowfall should be pretty close to the low as the system matures near out latitude. Now, dry slot is another matter..

I know all about that being on the west side of these as it stacks near cape cod.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

NAVGEM much slower than GFS and Euro.  Not as amped.

and you think talking about ggem output is bad?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know all about that being on the west side of these as it stacks near cape cod.

I figured you know this, just saying...

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not that worried about it.

I'm not either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't want the NAVGEM as amped.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have had one....4/1/97 was probably a bit short.

I thought you had Jan15 and Mar18. 

[Heisy]

End of 18z rgem shifted the main wave farther west, this would lean more towards euro camp. Could see the cmc correct east tonight if that trend continues since cmc basically plays off the rgem 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I don't ever recall a situation quite like this where a storm went poof. Could see us still missing an event though, but it is getting more unlikely every cycle.

You just a babe in the woods. No offense 

[klw]

18 minutes ago, cut said:

I have a toro from around 1988 - starts with a single pill.

Is the pill Tractor Viagra?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought you had Jan15 and Mar18. 

March 2018 was like 31"...that is my one.

Jan 2015 and Feb 2013 were both like 27".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

End of 18z rgem shifted the main wave farther west, this would lean more towards euro camp. Could see the cmc correct east tonight if that trend continues since cmc basically plays off the rgem 

GEM is like the went goal post ensemble member in my mind.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Heisy said:

End of 18z rgem shifted the main wave farther west, this would lean more towards euro camp. Could see the cmc correct east tonight if that trend continues since cmc basically plays off the rgem 

Ah I would not try to extrapolate an 84 hr RGEM. 

[LovewellHemp]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wait till Wednesday or Thursday to cancel 

Sound advice indeed!

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, klw said:

Is the pill Viagra?

Lol I thought he was making a joke at first then realized it was a typo. We fun

[LovewellHemp]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

50.0000000000%

Guess I'll just jump now 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM is like the went goal post ensemble member in my mind.

Scott Norwood?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured you know this, just saying...

Yea, definitely. Just discussing. I know I don't live it a climo favored area for captured lows east of cape cod to be direct hits here so we take it in stride. With that said, a Jan15 like outcome will be a crushing blow in a long list of crushing blows...it would take me a few days to recover and regroup, not denying that, lol.  

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

and you think talking about ggem output is bad?

Just stating the obvious to George. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought you had Jan15 and Mar18. 

I seriously had 29.75 Jan myself. As much as I wanted 30 and probably did I stuck to the 6hr snowboard. My garbage can probably had 30 though

[George001]

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark blizzard, it’s going to be will it be just inside the benchmark or hug the coast? My Initial thoughts are that the low will hug the coast, going from just east of Long Island, to over the cape cod elbow, and then going into the gulf of Maine, rapidly deepening as it comes up the coast. I am forecasting the low to deepen to the 960s. Since this is a preliminary forecast I am going to start conservative and adjust upwards if needed. 

NYC: 12-18 

Central to eastern long island: 16-20 

1-95 corridor, Boston, and interior se ma: 16-20

Worcester: 20-24

Berkshires: 24-28

all of CNE and NNE 20+
 

 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds like cape in 2005.

Yep I have pics from the Cape from a weenie drive. Close to it. 78 was packed denser though. Like an avalanche 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, definitely. Just discussing. I know I don't live it a climo favored area for captured lows east of cape cod to be direct hits here so we take it in stride. With that said, a Jan15 like outcome will be a crushing blow in a long list of crushing blows...it would take me a few days to recover and regroup, not denying that, lol.  

Decent shot it ends up a bit west of that....who knows. I feel like we are going to start seeing runs tonight LBSW their way to CT.