Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please let that be wrong

yeah that is not an attractive ensemble mean

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus CHRIST

That's the same position as the OP at h5.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Trolling

i know, just like baiting him 

[Henry's Weather]

This is something I've noticed: the GEPS seem to follow the OP more than the euro and american suite. I wonder if they feature a smaller range of perturbations

[The 4 Seasons]

GEPS mean has bumped up quite a bit. Heres the mean track and qpf as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEPS def subsumed s of RI

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

This is something I've noticed: the GEPS seem to follow the OP more than the euro and american suite. I wonder if they feature a smaller range of perturbations

Here's the 12z GEPS perturbations:

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GEPS mean has bumped up quite a bit. Heres the mean track and qpf as well

Love that right hook it does near ACK, lol.

[George001]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GEPS mean has bumped up quite a bit. Heres the mean track and qpf as well

It looks like the low goes over the cape, yet the snow output looks a little low. I would think the mean would be 6-8+ even at this lead time all the way down to the canal, how come it’s tainting so far inland? It looks like for the mean the 0 line is offshore.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

It looks like the low goes over the cape, yet the snow output looks a little low. I would think the mean would be 6-8+ even at this lead time all the way down to the canal, how come it’s tainting so far inland? 

I noticed that the CMC OP has more snowfall for most (even in areas that taint) with an inland track than the ensemble does with the track further east.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I noticed that the CMC OP has more snowfall for most (even in areas that taint) with an inland track than the ensemble does with the track further east.

But remember-snow maps don’t come from cmc-they are vendor generated.

[78Blizzard]

Is this going to be one of those 300 mile moves in one run by the Euro, lol?

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But remember-snow maps don’t come from cmc-they are vendor generated.

True.  I was comparing Weatherbell ENS with Pivotal OP, so not apples to apples.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

True.  I was comparing Weatherbell ENS with Pivotal OP, so not apples to apples.

I love them as much as any weenie but I know they’re not useful more than half the time.

[weathafella]

Euro is certainly looking much better.  We’ll see if it gets the whole job done

[wxsniss]

This is gonna be a much better hit I think

Through hr 126, already much better N-S stream interaction

[Henry's Weather]

Euro is gonna be a hit I believe

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO LOOKS LIKE UK

[weathafella]

It’s on!   Getting lashed Saturday morning.

[Thunderblizzard]

Huge shift. Eastern areas get whacked.

[weathafella]

Qpf 1+ well west.

[Henry's Weather]

AHHHHH

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

GFS, CMC, UK... 

Euro is the only one of the big models that has not shown a blizzard at some point. Yet.

And there it is... blizzard on Euro op

[wxsniss]

Could see the differences early... look at this stream interaction over KY/TN at 0z vs. 12z:

0z:

12z:

[78Blizzard]

Looked just E of BM.

[weathafella]

1.5 qpf inside 495 imby

[tim123]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looked just E of BM.

Will end up over Central New england

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, weathafella said:

1.5 qpf inside 495 imby

This just might do it!! 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, tim123 said:

Will end up over Central New england

Not this time.

[WxWatcher007]

Down to 946 mb lol. What a nuke.