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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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How to get everyone outside the mountains to hate you in one single post

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Haha, I promise I wasn't trolling for the sake of trolling. I'm pulling for the non-mountain folks! If it's a nighttime storm then let it stop at the escarpment. I've got enough on the ground already.

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In case anyone was wondering, here's what all the overnight model runs showed for Clemson, SC.  

  1pm friday 7pm friday total liquid snow notes
00z ukmet 32/23 32/23 .49(all snow) 5 inch, 10:1(would be higher)
doesn't start until after 7pm friday, finishes 8am saturday
00z Euro 30/24 28/24 .65(mostly snow) 7 inch kuchera
starts 7am friday, 800mb warm nose right at freezing to start, higher ratio snow on back end. ends 3 or 4am saturday
00z CMC 34/30 30/27 .06(all snow) Trace kuchera  
06z GFS 30/24 28/24 .04 (all snow) .25 inch kuchera
starts 3-4pm friday, only last an hour or tow(fringed)
06z NAM 29/23 N/A N/A N/A  
06z Rgem 33/30 N/A .08(all snow) .5 inch kuchera
still ripping at end of run, more to come
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06z Euro for the first time in a while actually ticked towards less phasing with the southern stream. Helps thermal profiles for places like raleigh, but hurts precip totals to the west.  It has me getting .25 liquid(maybe a little more to come past hour 90). The 00z run had me at .65 liquid. 

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

06z Euro for the first time in a while actually ticked towards less phasing with the southern stream. Helps thermal profiles for places like raleigh, but hurts precip totals to the west.  It has me getting .25 liquid(maybe a little more to come past hour 90). The 00z run had me at .65 liquid. 

Yeah, I've definitely noticed this on the less amped solutions. Could end up as a SE VA special, depending on the timing of the phase. 

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DT won't like the 06Z EC and EPS- pretty big change for the worse for many folks. Much more towards the GFS. Yes, the GFS has sucked recently but with this storm it has been pretty consistent having a suppressed system with maybe only a very narrow band of freezing/frozen precip on the northern fringe. This could still change but time is running out. 12Z runs may tell the story.

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4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

DT won't like the 06Z EC and EPS- pretty big change for the worse for many folks. Much more towards the GFS. Yes, the GFS has sucked recently but with this storm it has been pretty consistent having a suppressed system with maybe only a very narrow band of freezing/frozen precip on the northern fringe. This could still change but time is running out. 12Z runs may tell the story.

Certainly bad news for central VA. However, the GFS has taken big steps towards more amped, so I think the I-85 corridor is looking good for now

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Wdrag:  

East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while othermodels are relucant, so uncertainty exists.
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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z EPS and Control trended towards a mix of GFS and CMC. Could the Euro be the one to cave.... wow

Not really caving... GFS already moved way more in the direction of the Euro. If the euro pulls back 20% and the GFS pushed forward 80% to meet in the middle. That's a win for the Euro.

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