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Jan 6th-7th 2022 Second Chance Storm


John1122
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12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains.  That said, it upped total precip.  Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley.  If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast.  If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom).

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains.  That said, it upped total precip.  Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley.  If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast.  If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom).

Could this be a result of the NAM bias of overamping?

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As @dwagner88 said we are getting ready for our rainy day in Chattanooga. I doubt any snow later. Initial sleep pellets will be it. Signal and Lookout could get some snow, but I bet less than last time. 

Knox to TRI axis is a little better relative to the track. Warm valley may be an issue, but I figure snow falls up there later. 

Regarding 850 Ts it's probably accurate because they do have aircraft. MD drawing even acknowledges the situation with the kink southeast side of the blob. 

Today is fun for Western and Middle Tennessee, esp Middle. Enjoy the snow!

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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Scratch that last post.  Precip is more.  Problem is warm-nose which I think will be attributed to a lot of this falling during afternoon daylight hours in E TN.

I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s.   Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s.

 

LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.

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2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

As @dwagner88 said we are getting ready for our rainy day in Chattanooga. I doubt any snow later. Initial sleep pellets will be it. Signal and Lookout could get some snow, but I bet less than last time. 

Knox to TRI axis is a little better relative to the track. Warm valley may be an issue, but I figure snow falls up there later. 

Regarding 850 Ts it's probably accurate because they do have aircraft. MD drawing even acknowledges the situation with the kink southeast side of the blob. 

Today is fun for Western and Middle Tennessee, esp Middle. Enjoy the snow!

Don’t waffle on us now @nrgjeff!  You’ve been saying all along that we were good to go in the Central and Northern Valley!!

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8 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s.   Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s.

 

LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.

Cloud deck in knox is solid and it looks like virga is already over top of me.  It came racing in fast.  Most likely just the weenie in me hoping.

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I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s.   Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s.
 
LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.

We are socked in with clouds N Knox Co. The sun was only out for 30 min or so.


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For what it's worth, most forecasts were showing my area to be close to 39 already and it's barely moved above 33 in most spots.  Honestly at this point I'm looking at this at a nowcasting situation and saying the models are smoking something good (wishful thinking) lol

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2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Going back to your original line of thinking yesterday.  Don’t see how temps are going to warm up too much today.

I'm not buying it, unless there is a dynamic at play I don't understand it doesn't make sense.

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14 minutes ago, bearman said:

My Radar scope is having problems but it looks like mosture is about to get into west knox at least from looking at the radar out of Nashville MRX is an hour and 45 min old.  That is moving fast.

 

Having the same problems with Radarscope in regards to the Morristown MRX radar. Latest reading is over 2 hours old, while Nashville MRX reading is current. Poor time for this to happen.  

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7 minutes ago, kvskelton said:

Having the same problems with Radarscope in regards to the Morristown MRX radar. Latest reading is over 2 hours old, while Nashville MRX reading is current. Poor time for this to happen.  

For some reason Nashville is way off for southern middle. 

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Just now, TellicoWx said:

As far as my area, can confirm the 850s are rising. Valley areas here are sitting around 32, but the mountains are running 35-36 above 1500-2000'

Is there any way the snow breaks through?

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Just now, McMinnWx said:

Is there any way the snow breaks through?

Not until the center passes, but with this being a weak system not alot to work with on the back side..like Jeff said, start as a quick period of sleet maybe, then cold rain is what I'm looking at.

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