Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[nrgjeff]

If cold air is truly in place downslope is not such a deal killer. How about an inverted trough to enhance snow? Not a forecast. Surface high is not quite aligned to jam down (resupply) cold.

ECMWF is a true Miller A, none of this Miller B transfer garbage. Short wave out of Texas gins up a Gulf Low that rides up the East Coast, close enough to get East Tenn. 

GEFS has two pieces of energy, and is concerning; so, the GFS is not a bearish outlier relative to the ensemble mean. EC is known to miss subtle details, even though it's the better synoptic model. Re the GFS, be scared be very scared of a dry air bust. 

Fingers crossed the ECMWF scores an important win for East Tenn.

[PowellVolz]

Did 6z Euro go poof?


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[Mrwolf1972]

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Did 6z Euro go poof?


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No storm is there just little to far south this run

[Carvers Gap]

31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

UK has a monster but it’s from the mountains to the coast.

12z….



00z…..




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That almost looks like the same run with the exception of the 12z from yesterday having thermal issues which it shouldn't.  Just have to think this jogs west during the next few days of modeling.   Interestingly, the UK wasn't completely wrong with the last system, but it did miss the middle TN snows.

Jeff's post above is interesting.  Both model biases in play....GFS with a progressive nature for SLPs which take the low road, and the Euro which could be missing finer details.  

Will just watch trends during the next couple of days.  It would seem unlikely that modeling would hold that position for the next five days as the last three storms(even they system Holston shows with his trend gif) have trended well northwest during the final 5-6 days of modeling.  It seems like the NW trend halted overnight.  It is highly likely that the system rides the front which comes through TR night.  I would suspect that front doesn't press as far as originally modeled.  Again, something that has occurred for 2-3 seasons in a row.  But who knows....interesting look and certainly one to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.

[PowellVolz]

That almost looks like the same run with the exception of the 12z from yesterday having thermal issues which it shouldn't.  Just have to think this jogs west during the next few days of modeling.   Interestingly, the UK wasn't completely wrong with the last system, but it did miss the middle TN snows.
Jeff's post above is interesting.  Both model biases in play....GFS with a progressive nature for SLPs which take the low road, and the Euro which could be missing finer details.  
Will just watch trends during the next couple of days.  It would seem unlikely that modeling would hold that position for the next five days as the last three storms(even they system Holston shows with his trend gif) have trended well northwest during the final 5-6 days of modeling.  It seems like the NW trend halted overnight.  It is highly likely that the system rides the front which comes through TR night.  I would suspect that front doesn't press as far as originally modeled.  Again, something that has occurred for 2-3 seasons in a row.  But who knows....interesting look and certainly one to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.

Would you consider this an overrunning event? I understand a low is thought to develop on the CF but wasn’t sure if WAA was advecting moisture back across the boundary.


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[fountainguy97]

Feel like this is a Carolina special. We may get enough ticks to get E TN in some light snow but I think we are locking in here. 
 

I do think it'll be easier to get more phasing than less. So NW ticks probably will be more likely to happen than suppression. IF any trends occur. This one just feels like a Carolina Crusher
 

 

[Vol4Life]

15 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Feel like this is a Carolina special. We may get enough ticks to get E TN in some light snow but I think we are locking in here. 
 

I do think it'll be easier to get more phasing than less. So NW ticks probably will be more likely to happen than suppression. IF any trends occur. This one just feels like a Carolina Crusher
 

 

Typically I would agree, but with the way modeling has been all over the place, I still believe East TN is very much in the game.  We’ve seen 150-200 mile jumps within 48 hours.  It will be interesting to watch.

[PowellVolz]

Feel like this is a Carolina special. We may get enough ticks to get E TN in some light snow but I think we are locking in here. 
 
I do think it'll be easier to get more phasing than less. So NW ticks probably will be more likely to happen than suppression. IF any trends occur. This one just feels like a Carolina Crusher
 
 

You might be right but 90% of the time you never want to be ground zero 4-5 days out.


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[Chattownsnow]

I’ll be pretty disappointed if we miss out on all these  opportunities here in Chattanooga during this pattern. I feel like we are in a great spot until I see things trending more SE on the latest modeling and ensembles the last 24 hrs. Typically I would think this is exactly we’re we would want to see things at this stage in the game but ensembles appear to be keying in more to our east with support further west diminishing. Either way I love that we at least have so many things to watch. 

[fountainguy97]

11 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Typically I would agree, but with the way modeling has been all over the place, I still believe East TN is very much in the game.  We’ve seen 150-200 mile jumps within 48 hours.  It will be interesting to watch.

for sure.  Here was our last event 84hrs out on GFS.  the precip shield and low ended up abt 100 miles south from this run.  100miles NW certainly puts the valley in the game if it happens. 

[Bigbald]

50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That almost looks like the same run with the exception of the 12z from yesterday having thermal issues which it shouldn't.  Just have to think this jogs west during the next few days of modeling.   Interestingly, the UK wasn't completely wrong with the last system, but it did miss the middle TN snows.

Jeff's post above is interesting.  Both model biases in play....GFS with a progressive nature for SLPs which take the low road, and the Euro which could be missing finer details.  

Will just watch trends during the next couple of days.  It would seem unlikely that modeling would hold that position for the next five days as the last three storms(even they system Holston shows with his trend gif) have trended well northwest during the final 5-6 days of modeling.  It seems like the NW trend halted overnight.  It is highly likely that the system rides the front which comes through TR night.  I would suspect that front doesn't press as far as originally modeled.  Again, something that has occurred for 2-3 seasons in a row.  But who knows....interesting look and certainly one to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.

Do we need that front to either move through quicker, or hang up more?  I noticed in some of model runs from the last 4-5 days ago that when the front was originally pushing through it allowed a better track.  Further watching would show it sometimes getting "entangled" with the frontal passage but well to our SE and getting pulled that direction?

[PowellVolz]

I’ll be pretty disappointed if we miss out on all these  opportunities here in Chattanooga during this pattern. I feel like we are in a great spot until I see things trending more SE on the latest modeling and ensembles the last 24 hrs. Typically I would think this is exactly we’re we would want to see things at this stage in the game but ensembles appear to be keying in more to our east with support further west diminishing. Either way I love that we at least have so many things to watch. 

GFS and the UK jumped NW overnight. Euro moved SE but but it was only one run. We haven’t seen any trends yet. I’ll take where Knoxville is right now 100% of the time and be right 90% of the time especially this year. Mods also lose themselves in the 4-5 day out timeframe but usually pick back up on the storm after a few runs.


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[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Do we need that front to either move through quicker, or hang up more?  I noticed in some of model runs from the last 4-5 days ago that when the front was originally pushing through it allowed a better track.  Further watching would show it sometimes getting "entangled" with the frontal passage but well to our SE and getting pulled that direction?

Sharpen up a bit(steeper) and/or then have the strength of the front be weaker and/or need the high to be north or further west IMHO.  Lots of ways to gain latitude and back the flow.  My guess is the SER will fight some.  That probably is the key...just get that synoptic feature in place, and the rest takes care of itself.

[nrgjeff]

Need the back shortwave to be stronger out of Texas Friday. Lead post-frontal wave Thursday night (after Wednesday night front) is forecast to be fairly equal on the GFS. EC brushes it off, favoring the back wave developing a more robust storm.

Here in Chattanooga we'll take dry air bust risk over warm nose bust risk 99/100 times. Of course this will be that 1 time we bust dry, haha!

[PowellVolz]

Sharpen up a bit(steeper) and/or then have the strength of the front be weaker and/or need the high to be north or further west IMHO.  Lots of ways to gain latitude and back the flow.  My guess is the SER will fight some.  That probably is the key...just get that synoptic feature in place, and the rest takes care of itself.

We don’t get to say your last statement very often.


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[jaxjagman]

CFS has been showing convection into the IO towards the end of the month..Today if went *POOF*  Now you see me, now you don't

[jaxjagman]

GEFS shows  the height rise in East Asia which could warm us up briefly  but watch the back end,that patten don't last very long

 

 

 

Edit:Ackkk,that was the GFS.GEFS still breaks it down,we shall see,just need to Euro to start showing this in a few days

 

[Silas Lang]

Well the GFS and Canadian were a no go for this weekend, though the Canadian showed a good storm for eastern areas next Tuesday. 

Whatever happens this weekend, it seems the models keep wanting to show something for the valley which is a good sign. 

Edit: I think the storm showing for next week was shown on another model run a couple of days ago, GFS or Canadian? Is this popping up due to energy left behind or something? Someone more knowledgable than me chime in lol

[TellicoWx]

Think we are going to have more than the usual run to run variability in the short to medium range...so much energy in the 500 pattern coming up. Typically when you trend loop the 500 on models, they smooth out somewhere in the 60hr-84hr range. Currently it's in the 30hr-48hr range (GFS on the lower end). Model verification 120hr scores are starting to show this as well, with GFS currently not doing so well.

[fountainguy97]

12z suite so far confirming my suspicion that this is an "east of mountains" event. I dont think these setups really push west of the mountains much at all unless we get some real phasing. Expect EURO to hop in line we the rest at 12z. Its 6z was already heading that way!   Being from Central and Eastern NC I know they need a score! 

[TellicoWx]

12z GEFS increased valley thru Sat evening vs 06z. 

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

12z suite so far confirming my suspicion that this is an "east of mountains" event. I dont think these setups really push west of the mountains much at all unless we get some real phasing. Expect EURO to hop in line we the rest at 12z. Its 6z was already heading that way!   Being from Central and Eastern NC I know they need a score! 

Agree wholeheartedly . Im actually pulling for a subtle se shift with the frontal system Thursday. As of now only the rgem is showing a somewhat se shift with the snow with it.

    Not too long ago, these frontal setups brought snow pre and ana. Maybe we can get a little stronger ca push and we'll get that se trend but, at this juncture I am in doubt.

     As it stands now, my local is at 7.65" on the season. Seasonal avg. is 17". 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro hates the eastern Great Valley and wants it to suffer:

[John1122]

I'd say that Euro run will just about wrap it up. It's folded to the GFS several times this winter. Unfortunately this one was a fold that takes virtually all of us out of the game except for a few passing flakes, maybe.  Not sure if there's any path back this close to the start of the system. Looks like we are gonna get missed to the north with system one, missed to the east with two and if the GFS is to be believed, missed to the south with system 3. The Carolinas will look like Texas last year by early next week.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But if i lived in the NC Triad area, I wouldn't get my hopes up and claim the GFS has saved the day:

People talk about warning shots, IMO if I lived in the Raleigh Durham area, these are warning shots:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That being said, I agree with John, but the worst we can expect now is a last minute NW trend to help extreme eastern areas.

[Vol4Life]

Not throwing in the towel yet.  Past years I would.  Going to hold off until another set of model runs

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I wonder if this ends up being like the December 2017 storm? 

[John1122]

I really hope the Canadian is right, because the GFS was one of the most frustrating runs ever. Dry cold while people to the S/E/N/W of the forum area get 6+ inches of snow.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, John1122 said:

I really hope the Canadian is right, because the GFS was one of the most frustrating runs ever. Dry cold while people to the S/E/N/W of the forum area get 6+ inches of snow.

Right with you brother !