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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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4 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

What would stop such a strong low from becoming an app runner ?

Nothing.  With no blocking it comes down to absolutely perfect timing to keep a storm that amped from cutting to Denver.  That's why its unlikely to go down that way in reality.  Still pretty to look at.

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20 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

I love being in the bulls eye, but not six days out. That NW trend will not be kind to us.

Modeling isn't putting us in a bullseye. That particular run is. You have to think about all the model runs existing along a probability distribution. Right now, that distribution pretty much includes all possible outcomes, but favors a big storm more than usual. Lack of deep arctic air is the biggest factor preventing the distribution from skewing more towards a big storm. 

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6 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

And wouldn't that cause -Negative ao since it would just hangout over Greenland after passing up the eastern part of the us ? 

No.  -NAO means HIGH geopotential heights around Greenland.  A storm hanging out over Greenland would mean low heights there and thus a +NAO.

That being said, big storms do sometimes hang out in the area around latitude 50 N, longitude 50 W and become what is called a "50/50 low"/  Those can be just as helpful with blocking as well. 

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Probably worth noting the gulf low is still there on Tuesday and Wednesday. It kinda flattens the wave as it heads east from a pretty stout system in SE Texas. It starts as a cutoff low in the SW, pushes east, deepens, then dampens out moving over the gulf coast. If it stays a bit stronger it could possibly trend a bit further north. Worth watching at least before the main event this weekend 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There’s no telling how long it would take to get out of my neighborhood after a 32 inch snowstorm 

When I lived in NJ we had a couple 30 inchers, and even there it took a solid 2-3 days to get things up and running.

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1 minute ago, SteveRDU said:

When I lived in NJ we had a couple 30 inchers, and even there it took a solid 2-3 days to get things up and running.

What part of Jersey. Thats where Im from. I remember a few 30" storms, the bliz of 96, Feb 78, just a couple

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1 minute ago, Avdave said:

What part of Jersey. Thats where Im from. I remember a few 30" storms, the bliz of 96, Feb 78, just a couple

Fort Lee area very close to NYC. ‘96 was epic! ‘78 was before my time. Were you around for 2016?

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Just now, SteveRDU said:

Fort Lee area very close to NYC. ‘96 was epic! ‘78 was before my time. Were you around for 2016?

Know it well, Born in Boonton and grew up in Sussex county.   I left there in 1999 and bounced around the northeast,  2016 Jan I was in Northern VA and we had 34" there

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This one is pretty straightforward. It is simply a matter of timing the phase. Some modeling has been phasing too late to really bring any appreciable precipitation.  A couple of runs have phases at the perfect time to bring a significant snowstorm.

All about the 500mb vorts. 

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2 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Know it well, Born in Boonton and grew up in Sussex county.   I left there in 1999 and bounced around the northeast,  2016 Jan I was in Northern VA and we had 34" there

Nice, Sussex was often a jackpot zone in some of those storms. And it sounds like a bunch of us cashed in in 2016.

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4 minutes ago, msuwx said:

This one is pretty straightforward. It is simply a matter of timing the phase. Some modeling has been phasing too late to really bring any appreciable precipitation.  A couple of runs have phases at the perfect time to bring a significant snowstorm.

All about the 500mb vorts. 

Am I looking at this wrong? This is not a week out, this is 5-6 days right? Not quite understanding folks saying this is over 7 days away...

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Am I looking at this wrong? This is not a week out, this is 5-6 days right? Not quite understanding folks saying this is over 7 days away...

Yep. Day 6-7

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