yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Taken verbatim re 06z ICON snow amounts: 2" just SW of BWI out towards HGR... 4" line is near DCA out towards MRB... 6" by EZF and Warrenton and Luray and probably just south of Winchester. Take as you wish ETA: Still snowing in a lot of areas at 120... so there would be some accumulations after 120. 06z ICON ends at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 h5 is digging a bit more SW at 06z 90 than at 00z 84... Can def see the W shift comparing the 06z 96 and 00z 90 on the GFS with the energy out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Oh good god yes GFS! Climbing the coast baby!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 DC destroyed at hour 150…SN+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 OmG 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 oh hello there 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pretty healthy CAD signature going into it, it certainly can't hurt that one of our coldest airmasses so far is coinciding with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS is going to lead the way again boyz. The big ones are sniffed out early. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2009 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS is going to lead the way again boyz. The big ones are sniffed out early. Let's hope the ENS sniffs it out as wellSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Looks way more similar to Feb 2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Perfect Leesburg Lolly to even keep @Ji happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 lol the 3hr snow maps are porn at 147-153 as the deform band goes by... they are just silly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Another brutal western cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ironically the ocean storm may be aiding in the digging west of the sw and its slower movement which sharpenes the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Another brutal western cutoff.That looks Ike a kocin. Snow from sc to new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The sw for the storm hits big sky country in 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX (4am update) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings. From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm. A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the long-wave trough over the region which could support intense cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot, but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly data sparse area, which means guidance could change significantly in any direction as better observational information on the shortwave is included. The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure building in behind the front later this week, temps likely struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies. Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 At this rate we will see white rain. I’m not getting my hopes up yet. 1 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either. We should have that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either. We should have that already. Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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