janetjanet998 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 VALID 271200Z - 011200Z ..DISCUSSION A RELATIVELY QUIET DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. SUBSEQUENTLY...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT BROAD/LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN/INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX TO THE ADJACENT LOWER MS VALLEY/PERHAPS ARKLATEX VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 INTO THURSDAY/DAY 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 La Crosse says this: NOW THE BIG FEATURE. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WHEN IT EJECTS UP INTO OUR REGION. IN ANY EVENT...THE CURRENT AND TWO PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE PRESSURE ON THE LOW IS IN THE 980S MB AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY OR NEW YEARS EVE. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND TIMING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH VERY UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF RUNS AS WELL AS A FEW GFS RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AND/OR NEW YEARS EVE. INCLUDED RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF MODELS TREND THE ECMWF ROUTE. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD SUGGEST A SNOW STORM FOR NEW YEARS EVE. SO ALL ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Seriously if the models show this storm the strength it is, the SPC wouldn't hesitate to issue a large Day 6 or 7 across the Mid South to the Lakes in the huge warm sector ahead of this storm, because it's new years and so many people would be out, and could get caught off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This storm is seriously going to be amazing to watch. Huge battle of the air masses, amazing baroclinic zone setting up. I'm excited already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS is back with the other models in showing a warm, rainy storm for most of us. I sure hope that doesn't happen. We have a beautiful, fresh snow cover and it would stink to have it become a sloppy mess for New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 MN gets pounded on the 12z GFS. Hard to say if it's ice or snow, but still. Sub 990 maybe? In C/W. MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS taken verbatim would indicate a pretty substantial flood threat for many of us with severe weather as far North as the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Interesting storm to be sure. There will definitely be some hydro issues if the storm tracks as far northwest as currently forecast. The GFS dumps over an inch of rain on areas that currently have well over a foot of snow on the ground. Even folks who get caught in the rainy warm sector of this storm will get some very interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS taken verbatim would indicate a pretty substantial flood threat for many of us with severe weather as far North as the Ohio Valley I think it's time to start taking this storm more seriously, because the last 3 runs shows the same extreme storm, and the storm has been on the map for days now Indiana,Ohio, Western Appalachians (like NY,PA,WV,KY) with a threat of severe storms and maybe tornadoes on New Years Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is that a SE ridge developing around this storms time period? Does look like a stong high pressure in canada that might keep this storm south. A SE ridge would always beat out a high pressure in a battle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Me thinks there is going to be quite a severe weather threat with this thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Incredible Low Level Shear on the maps for 0z New Years A Large Area of Severe Storms looks possible even the whole way to the southern lakes and spread across the Appalachians to the coast it's possible that storms could be moving 40 to 50mph, perhaps 60mph, storm motions will likely catch many people off guards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Storms of this magnitude and scale are often picked up early on by modeling, and this is exactly what we're seeing, with pretty much universal agreement among the "big 3" global models that the storm will exist. You might remember that the Octobomb was also picked up on over a week in advance. Track is still up in the air, but places like Cent/S. Mo through south cen. IL on south could see a major severe outbreak in this type of setup, provided the snowpack is sufficiently melted to allow destabilization in the low levels. Otherwise, it will be a bunch of fog with elevated storms in those areas. Fetch from the GoM is huge, and taps some rich subtropical/tropical moisture. This is a key feature to keep an eye on. Also, time of day will be key, as will cloud cover, and this time of year, it's very hard to get a setup that will allow much sunshine in the warm sector. I'm not even going to speculate who gets the big snows, because it's futile to try at this point, especially with some solutions showing a "roll-over" ridge to the north of the storm, which would alter the scenario drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Storms of this magnitude and scale are often picked up early on by modeling, and this is exactly what we're seeing, with pretty much universal agreement among the "big 3" global models that the storm will exist. You might remember that the Octobomb was also picked up on over a week in advance. Track is still up in the air, but places like Cent/S. Mo through south cen. IL on south could see a major severe outbreak in this type of setup, provided the snowpack is sufficiently melted to allow destabilization in the low levels. Otherwise, it will be a bunch of fog with elevated storms in those areas. Fetch from the GoM is huge, and taps some rich subtropical/tropical moisture. This is a key feature to keep an eye on. Also, time of day will be key, as will cloud cover, and this time of year, it's very hard to get a setup that will allow much sunshine in the warm sector. I'm not even going to speculate who gets the big snows, because it's futile to try at this point, especially with some solutions showing a "roll-over" ridge to the north of the storm, which would alter the scenario drastically. Does this storm remind you of the January 7th and 8th, 2008 Outbreak but on a larger scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Incredible Low Level Shear on the maps for 0z New Years A Large Area of Severe Storms looks possible even the whole way to the southern lakes and spread across the Appalachians to the coast it's possible that storms could be moving 40 to 50mph, perhaps 60mph, storm motions will likely catch many people off guards we are still a week away so predicting small smale things this far out is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 With the intensity of this storm I have to conjure that this is the next phase of winter. We get an intense storm to reload the cold and settle back into another long stretch of cold. The fact that on most modeling the surface low comes up and then potentially retrogrades slightly west will be the next polar vortex to dominate the Midwest/Lakes/Ohio Valley while upstream the heat helps fire off the blocking. Being a week away is difficult to notice all the idiosyncrasies this storm could portray but with the look of this, that block stands firm forces a west cut and it simply occludes. Heat moves east firing off the block and that initial deep surface low becomes entrenched in the mid levels and becomes the focal point for some vigorous clippers with renewed Arctic air coming in behind the energy. The biggest key here is how the heat gets distributed because if the heat goes right towards the block, the blocking might even grow stronger and that is hard to believe but this is not a pattern I have seen. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 we are still a week away so predicting small smale things this far out is pointless. i know, but it's a possibility so what the heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 With the intensity of this storm I have to conjure that this is the next phase of winter. We get an intense storm to reload the cold and settle back into another long stretch of cold. The fact that on most modeling the surface low comes up and then potentially retrogrades slightly west will be the next polar vortex to dominate the Midwest/Lakes/Ohio Valley while upstream the heat helps fire off the blocking. Being a week away is difficult to notice all the idiosyncrasies this storm could portray but with the look of this, that block stands firm forces a west cut and it simply occludes. Heat moves east firing off the block and that initial deep surface low becomes entrenched in the mid levels and becomes the focal point for some vigorous clippers with renewed Arctic air coming in behind the energy. The biggest key here is how the heat gets distributed because if the heat goes right towards the block, the blocking might even grow stronger and that is hard to believe but this is not a pattern I have seen. Josh That's about right, La Nina is in progress so a storm like this seems like it has been a possibility for awhile now, but there has been a huge blocking pattern over the east leaving cold air, and it's been one of the coldest Decembers on record here in Pittsburgh with an average high around 20 degrees All i saying is this storm has a potential to be historic and is going to be worth watching, if the models show the same type of system during the 18z runs and 0z runs tonight, i think a severe thread will likely be needed and also a winter weather thread also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does this storm remind you of the January 7th and 8th, 2008 Outbreak but on a larger scale? This setup, as currently progged, is not at all like 1/7-1/8/08. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This thing is a monster. Will be interesting to see if it strengthens even more and who will get all of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That's about right, La Nina is in progress so a storm like this seems like it has been a possibility for awhile now, but there has been a huge blocking pattern over the east leaving cold air, and it's been one of the coldest Decembers on record here in Pittsburgh with an average high around 20 degrees All i saying is this storm has a potential to be historic and is going to be worth watching, if the models show the same type of system during the 18z runs and 0z runs tonight, i think a severe thread will likely be needed and also a winter weather thread also That is correct. There is an inordinate amount of energy with that storm. A raging blizzard on the cold side and heavy rain and wind on the front with a potential corridor of thunderstorms. Being 7 days out it will be difficult to see where the best moisture surge will be so that will have to be fine tuned. The biggest factor will be time of occlusion and strength of the low level warmth. Very often we could have a very thin rope of intense winds with low topped thunderstorms and not the classic "Spring" look. It will be interesting to see but if occlusion is taking over I believe severe thunderstorm coverage will likely decrease in size but a very thin rope of intense thunderstorms with high winds and spin ups would be a potential threat. Nevertheless it will be something to definitely watch for the particulars to come into play. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The height falls through the low/mid levels are out of this world once the leading S/W ejects over the Plains. Honestly, if anything close to the GFS pans out, this will be easily the largest Plains storm in years. Nothing I can think of comes close in size or intensity. Don't want to get too hyped yet, but the 0Z Panhandle Hooker would be more fun because of the mass amount of QPF it would unload. Either way, a storm like the 0/6Z would crush almost every part of our region in some way! Trend it a bit south and I'll take it, even if ends up trending down in intensity to only that of last year's Christmas Eve storm (which it does look a bit like... makes sense since the pattern has been similar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is my initial though, i am taking it as a grain of salt but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 that's probably going to be right because the LP tracks right over me, which is pretty much what happens all the time, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Pitt- If that low doesn't go more NW i'll eat my shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Pitt- If that low doesn't go more NW i'll eat my shorts. It probably will go more NW due to we never get a good synoptic snowstorm in Dec, Jan or Feb. We always get it in March and April when everyone is ready for spring. We will just get a rain storm from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Also, we won't get the storm and a big warm up is in the cards for January due to the fact I bought a new snowmobile helmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hard to tell...but the crappy Euro model i'm looking at shows it going over Duluth... Who knows... Whatever the case... it could be ugly if its either rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hard to tell...but the crappy Euro model i'm looking at shows it going over Duluth... Who knows... Whatever the case... it could be ugly if its either rain or snow. MPX's thoughts: THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD REMAINS QUITE ENERGETIC AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER US FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS BRING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MN...THE ECMWF IS A DAY FASTER THAN THE GFS (FRIDAY VERSUS SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY). THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE A WARM ONE (RAIN) FOR THE EASTERN PART OF MN AND WI WITH SNOW AND WIND FOR THE WEST AS WELL AS A LOT OF SNOW AND WIND FOR THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OK PANHANDLE TO NEAR MILWAUKEE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TAKES A SIMILAR PATH BUT IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND ENDS UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. HENCE...THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND CLIMATOLOGY. PUSHED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AND KEPT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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