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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

northpittweather

By northpittweather,
in Central/Western States

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

EURO has a low in NW WI at hr 174. Hardly any QPF with it though. It gets it down sub 985.

Much faster then the GFS.

ECM looks like it has 2 separate jet streaks plowing through. One is already ejecting into the plains at 168, the second is crashing ashore along the W coast. GFS has one monster jet stream, and it digs the beast a lot farther S before ejecting over the plains, hence the slower solution. Tough to call which is right, but it is worth noting the ECM ensemble mean trended towards the GFS ensemble mean with this general pattern a couple days ago. Will have to see what the ensembles do, but either way, fun weather is likely on the way.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

This is so different from every system we've tracked this month so far that it makes this statement preposterous...

Fine, but really majority of the models tend to overhype the systems, then slowly cut down on the strength as we approach... I know this storm looks insane atm, personally I don't pay attention to anything after 84 hrs and out, models have been doing horrible this year (IMO). The storm does look monstrous though, with lots of moisture to work with, and tons of rain, and possible severe weather for some of us. The Huge baroclinic temp differences are amazing, just that could produce significant winds with strong showers. Sometimes these system tend to produce secondary lows to the south, something to watch for.. So, I'm on board to keep an eye on this system..The good thing is that some major models are picking up on it...

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

The storm in October barely produced any wind in my neck of the woods, even though the BP went down to 950s.. Wasn't all that impressive for me at least.

Dude, this isn't just IMBY, ask those across Indiana that had all those tornadoes if it wasnt impressive. or all the wind across Wisconsin.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Everyone thought the "Octobomb" was overdone. Guess how that turned out? Sometimes models can get the strength right etc at this time period. Just because it is a sub 980 right now, doesn't mean it is overdone.

I don't understand this comment. The Octobomb was underdone, and models failed miserably simulating just how intense it eventually became. The best solutions were simulating 965 a couple days before the event, and even as the event unfolded, it ended up a good 5-6 hpa's lower. Now, was it a wind machine? No. The Octobomb had the unfortunate experience of happening in October with no snowpack in Canada to reinforce the high. Pressure gradient is what develops the winds (along with mixing to enhance both gusts and 10m's), not surface pressure alone. Was it a massive wind producer? No, but it certainly was not "overdone".

BTW, I like Octobomb too.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Dude, this isn't just IMBY, ask those across Indiana that had all those tornadoes if it wasnt impressive. or all the wind across Wisconsin.

Well, that's exactly what I said.. for me the storm was not all that impressive, at least for our area, I know many other parts of the country it was a lot worse.

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Moneyman

Moneyman

Posted
Posted

Baro, I was talking about when it was 84-96 hrs out, people kept saying how it wasn't gonna be that strong etc. And that the models was overdone.

I know it was impressive, and it turned out that the models never did trend to a weaker low pressure (like some thought may happen)

S. WI got like 2 days of 55-60 mph gusts. Was pretty impressive here.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Baro, I was talking about when it was 84-96 hrs out, people kept saying how it wasn't gonna be that strong etc. And that the models was overdone.

I know it was impressive, and it turned out that the models never did trend to a weaker low pressure (like some thought may happen)

S. WI got like 2 days of 55-60 mph gusts. Was pretty impressive here.

Ah, thanks for the clarity. Well in that regard I agree fully. You made it sound as if some suggested it was not impressive.

Edit:

I have a bad habit of reading about 20 threads at a time so I tend to read quick then post. I see what you mean in your original statement.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

The great thing about this season is with the unusual blocking pattern(s) and everything else, anything seems possible. You just never know. Even if this storm dials it down a few notches from what's being shown by the op GFS now, it's still going to be something interesting to track over the next week...:guitar:

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
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GFS still advertising an armageddon storm for New Years. Some of these solutions in the latest OP runs as well as the ensembles are depicting some of the most impressive Colorado Lows/Panhandle Hookers I have ever seen in the last 3-5 years. Not getting too hyped yet, but this could be fun.

Ya the 6z keeps things interesting could be an ice to rain event out this way.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

GFS still advertising an armageddon storm for New Years. Some of these solutions in the latest OP runs as well as the ensembles are depicting some of the most impressive Colorado Lows/Panhandle Hookers I have ever seen in the last 3-5 years. Not getting too hyped yet, but this could be fun.

It needs to hook after it gets into Arkansas. Make it happen! :)

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

The explosion of the 500mb low between 180 and 192 is absolutely beautiful.

The height falls through the low/mid levels are out of this world once the leading S/W ejects over the Plains. Honestly, if anything close to the GFS pans out, this will be easily the largest Plains storm in years. Nothing I can think of comes close in size or intensity. Don't want to get too hyped yet, but the 0Z Panhandle Hooker would be more fun because of the mass amount of QPF it would unload. Either way, a storm like the 0/6Z would crush almost every part of our region in some way!

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

The height falls through the low/mid levels are out of this world once the leading S/W ejects over the Plains. Honestly, if anything close to the GFS pans out, this will be easily the largest Plains storm in years. Nothing I can think of comes close in size or intensity. Don't want to get too hyped yet, but the 0Z Panhandle Hooker would be more fun because of the mass amount of QPF it would unload. Either way, a storm like the 0/6Z would crush almost every part of our region in some way!

Definitely hard not to get a little amped up looking at things here.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

gulf looks to be open too for severe wether

so perhps this thread can be the "general" storm thread then we can split into winter, severe, and maybe flooding threads(decent mount of h20 in snowpack over N IL, the first super clipper soaked in lot of rain with the next system)

This.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

LOT

GIVING WAY TO

NICE AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID WEEK BIG WARM MAY SUPPORT A

POTENTIAL RAIN AND SNOW COMBO MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL

FOR SOME CONVECTION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...INTO NEW

YEARS. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING TOWARDS A BIG BOWLING

BALL LOW TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AS A NICE NEGATIVELY TILTED

TROUGH COMES CARVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS....WITH A NICE

130(ISH)KT UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE PLAINS

COUPLED WITH A 100+KT JET IN THE MID LEVELS AND ON THE ORDER OF

45+KT AT H85. IS IT TOO EARLY TO BUY OFF ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS

PANNING OUT EXACTLY? ABSOLUTELY...BUT IT IS WORTHY OF MENTION AS IT

WILL A RESPITE FROM THE COLD AND SNOWY WINTER THUS FAR WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE

WEEK.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Yeah this is more of your typical La Nina system with a screaming Pacific event, not like anything we have had since Octobomb

Yet sensible weather wise in our area, the Dec 12th snowstorm was a FAR better and more "crippling" storm than the Octobomb was here. We had all those high wind warnings for winds that barely got above brief advisory criteria in the October storm, whereas in the snowstorm we had a rain to heavy snow scenario, 6" of snow, flash freeze on the roads, temp falling over 20 degrees during the storm. For me the storm is more fun than the tracking of it.

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