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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

my first call  8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas.  Then the temps fall bigtime .  Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards. 

I’ll take that

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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

my first call  8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas.  Then the temps fall bigtime .  Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards. 

That will not make for fun times truck driving and bulk tanker spring water hauling... 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think the thump will be fine. I do agree that the flip is looking more likely now. Seeing those SE low level winds roaring at tropical storm force wont help those east of the fall line. Again tho, get the sw to phase a little later to allow the low to traverse more longitude before running NNE would be huge in terms of precip types and changeover.

Yes I would love it to be a little weaker as well, let it find that baroclinic zone over the ocean. Seems unlikely at this point but we'll see. I mean even the GFS has it just west of Cape Hatteras before it shows it heading due north.

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3 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

WU calling for 6" of snow Sunday night. Interesting...

For my area, I'm just taking it (guessing) as a couple inches then some sort of changeover heading into Monday. No shot I'm wasting my time intensely following model after model before later Fri/early Sat...it'll drive one nuts.

28F

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4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

For my area, I'm just taking it (guessing) as a couple inches then some sort of changeover heading into Monday. No shot I'm wasting my time intensely following model after model before later Fri/early Sat...it'll drive one nuts.

28F

Oh, I'm not going to waste any time model-hopping and hoping for huge dumps. This isn't going to be the blockbuster event of the winter for most of us (if any). But it's a good sign this early into January. 

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Winter 2021-22 highlights so far…

-The Festivus miracle

-LV guy getting the boot

-It not being 70F on Christmas 

-3” of fluff from the Middle Finger storm

-And the 6 hours Tuesday afternoon when I thought Redsky’s Hoochie Mama blizzard might be a thing

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57 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Winter 2021-22 highlights so far…

-The Festivus miracle

-LV guy getting the boot

-It not being 70F on Christmas 

-3” of fluff from the Middle Finger storm

-And the 6 hours Tuesday afternoon when I thought Redsky’s Hoochie Mama blizzard might be a thing

We avoided the catastrophic drought as well...

Interesting weather for the Birds on Sunday in TB. T-storms and trashcan blowing winds:

 

tb.jpg

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On 1/12/2022 at 4:07 PM, Albedoman said:

my first call  8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas.  Then the temps fall bigtime .  Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards. 

so far so good with my first call 24 hours later. Many models are tuning in to this scenario for the LV.  My totals seem a little high but I guess that is what my second call will iron out tomorrow night. The third and final call will be Sat night Nam Run.  Additional issues  I see popping up now in the models:

1. More sleet at the mid levels are becoming an issue in all of the models.

2. The dry slot is still near or over the LV affecting snow totals before the changeover to sleet/frizzle.  The front end thump maybe just a speed bump if the dry slot kicks our ass..

3. If the wrap around snow does not come to fruition as the low races to the north because of the dry slot, then blowing snow will be curtailed as the sleet and frizzle put the "icing on the cake" to prevent blowing and drifting. Other than thundersnow, I really want to see howling blowing snow that causes drifting as it is a rarity in these parts from this event

4. lastly this inland runner could still go east by 50 miles or so by tomorrow night bringing a lot of happy faces to the I-95  people. Just have to model watch, especially the SREF and NAM runs as they are just outside their model trustworthiness right now.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Winter 2021-22 highlights so far…

-The Festivus miracle

-LV guy getting the boot

-It not being 70F on Christmas 

-3” of fluff from the Middle Finger storm

-And the 6 hours Tuesday afternoon when I thought Redsky’s Hoochie Mama blizzard might be a thing

 DC about to score better snow then the northern Philly burbs again this winter, and with a PA runner no less. Feeling a melt coming soon if I lose out on this one. It's almost got the taste of those really cold 3-7" January's in the 80's that were followed by mild blah February's. The long rangers are painting next month as ugly...

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4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

We're certainly back sheep. I'm in a zoom call and everyone is happy that we're getting rain and not snow.

Part of it is sincere and part it's the trendy thing to say. (closet weenies)

Pred:

Start time 6-7pm as snow

10pm: Pingers invade maybe some freezing rain

11pm-12am: Changes to all rain

Total Accumulation: 1-2"

 

39F/ Winds starting to pick up

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Part of it is sincere and part it's the trendy thing to say. (closet weenies)

Pred:

Start time 6-7pm as snow

10pm: Pingers invade maybe some freezing rain

11pm-12am: Changes to all rain

Total Accumulation: 1-2"

 

39F/ Winds starting to pick up

Wondering if we can score a hat trick:

WWA?

Flood watch?

Wind advisory?

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