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December 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Man!  C'mon people.  It's gonna get cold an snowy in time for the holidays which is the opposite of what we've been dealing with and you all sound like a bunch of whinners, lol.  "This is the jolliest bunch of A-holes this side of the nut house." 

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzz

 

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27 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Man!  C'mon people.  It's gonna get cold an snowy in time for the holidays which is the opposite of what we've been dealing with and you all sound like a bunch of whinners, lol.  "This is the jolliest bunch of A-holes this side of the nut house." 

 

you yesterday:


"Look at it like this.  In order for most of us here to experience the Winters of Yore, we may have had to participate in World War 2??  Having the winters get warmer and more frustrating may be a small price to pay, if you know what I mean."

 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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Finally!!
Grand Rapids goes all in:
- Winter makes a comebackAs I wrote about yesterday the MJO goes into phase 7 later thisweek. That will force it to get colder and stay colder late thisweek and more so next week. While the models are not forecastingmuch snow, it has been my experience that when we stay belowfreezing for more than a week, it finds a way to snow. So I amthinking it will snow the week leading to Christmas. If nothingless a lot of lake effect. The ensemble means for the Canadian,GFS and ECMWF all show highs below freezing from the 20th throughthe 28th. Winter weather will come back.


shame they have never heard of cold and dry.


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5 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

87B2D491-57D6-41E2-A2DF-BA4BBA5A2D34.jpeg.c476cfdc61207cc1fe7f0ffb130e0e5f.jpeg
We’ve had the cold air do this way to many times to us so I’m sure I’m not the only one here who’s skeptical until it actually happens and sticks around for a decent period of time.

Lake effect has been non-existent for 2 years or more.

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On 12/15, this year will become the 19th time that Chicago's seasonal snowfall total is sitting under 1".  Here are those years and what the final snowfall total ended up being, along with a B or A to signify whether the final total was below or above average.  14 out of 18 had less snow than average.  And of the 4 that were snowier than average, 2 were barely snowier than average.

 

2020 - 48.8" A

2012 - 30.1" B

2011 - 19.8" B

2003 - 24.8" B

2001 - 31.1" B

1999 - 30.3" B

1998 - 50.9" A

1993 - 41.8" A

1990 - 23.5" B

1984 - 39.1" A

1965 - 24.9" B

1948 - 14.3" B

1943 - 24.0" B

1939 - 31.0" B

1938 - 33.9" B

1923 - 27.6" B

1918 - 28.8" B

1912 - 19.0" B

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Nah nah nah, none of this even makes sense. Dispense with all of this sciencey shit and look at the cold hard facts: this entire season so far, there's always been a fantasy storm being modeled in the 240+ range. Now there isn't. Two and two guys, come on. 

Real talk, I'm willing to bet my Christmas gifts that some sort of event of some kind will arise in the Christmas week timeframe by this Saturday

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18z Euro with 65mph+ gusts over the northwest DVN cwa Wed eve now.  The Euro gust forecasts are usually a slight bit on the conservative side in most cases from what I've seen, so it would indicate potential 70 mph winds if the 18z works out.  The high-res models move the highest winds further north as the low center is modeled further north.  The 3km NAM goes nuts and drops the surface low below 970mb as it heads into Canada Wed night lol.

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Cold and dry to you is totally different for them with the Lake to their Left...
Plus, Cold and dry is a step in the right direction.  

Yes and no. A cold pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a LES pattern. (I’m not saying any of which are/are not happening)

Personally, cold and dry is easily worse than warm and dry/warm and wet.


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18z Euro with 65mph+ gusts over the northwest DVN cwa Wed eve now.  The Euro gust forecasts are usually a slight bit on the conservative side in most cases from what I've seen, so it would indicate potential 70 mph winds if the 18z works out.  The high-res models move the highest winds further north as the low center is modeled further north.  The 3km NAM goes nuts and drops the surface low below 970mb as it heads into Canada Wed night lol.

The Euro was too low with the Friday night/Saturday morning wind event. The GFS was much closer in terms of both placement and forecasted wind gusts.


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