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December 2021


MJO812
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17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I loved the look of the Euro this run.

This is what @brooklynwx99 was illustrating. HM talks about these often. Watch the High descending in east Asia. This is already in progress. The jet then extends, and the ridge gets blasted poleward. This is something we need to keep an eye on moving forward. 

IllfatedFreshGalapagosdove-size_restrict

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

How was this their long-standing thinking? They were forecasting a super cold/snowy December back in November. This is why I stopped following them, they keep changing the narrative to make themselves seem right no matter what scenario happens then claim victory and if anyone questions them, they post nasty tweets in response 

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29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy 

Near 50° passes for close to normal over the last 10 years on Christmas.

 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0
2019-12-25 48 27 0.00 0.0 0
2018-12-25 42 29 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-25 38 28 0.20 0.1 0
2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0
2013-12-25 30 19 0.00 0.0 0
2012-12-25 43 31 0.02 0.0 0
2011-12-25 48 25 0.00 0.0 0
Summary
Maximum Temperature
Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years
>=100° F >=90° F >=50° F <=32° F
64 49.0 30 0 0 40% 10%

 

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43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you ignore the ensembles? Are you trolling ?

don't start the trolling nonsense - I have been here since day 1 before 2010 and I have supported you over the years many times - this time I have an opposing view. I will not be sold on any snowstorms in the metro  till there is clear evidence of a pattern change to support it ! Which at the present time there is not .

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Merry Christmas 

I didn't think so either especially in B.C. too. The warmest we ever got in Toronto was 104F and that was in 1936 too. Yeah it burned all down, a lot of bigger towns like Kamloops were evacuated too. They get crazy fires every year like California. I think Seattle and Vancouver have similar climo's.

Look at Vancouver's forecast this week. 4"+ today. Can't believe it's more winter like there than here. 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-74_metric_e.html

and Seattle will have their first white Christmas in many years with an actual snowstorm today!

 

I know a few people in Kamloops and that area in general and they just weren't ready for this.  I remember a few years ago an entire town in Alberta burned down too.

 

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Near 50° passes for close to normal over the last 10 years on Christmas.

 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0
2019-12-25 48 27 0.00 0.0 0
2018-12-25 42 29 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-25 38 28 0.20 0.1 0
2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0
2013-12-25 30 19 0.00 0.0 0
2012-12-25 43 31 0.02 0.0 0
2011-12-25 48 25 0.00 0.0 0
Summary
Maximum Temperature
Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years
>=100° F >=90° F >=50° F <=32° F
64 49.0 30 0 0 40% 10%

 

Yeah we have new normals now BUT the good thing is that January and February are still our coldest months.  December is absolutely finished as a winter month so it shouldn't even count as one.

 

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I think some Nina's are backloaded like 1949-50 or 1971-72 just to name a few. Hopefully that's the case this year. 

we had a back loaded one just a few years ago with 4 snowstorms in March and one in April..... was that 2017-18?

We also had 1955-56, remember that?

Backloaded la ninas have still delivered 30-40 inches of snow

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming we don’t see a major SSW, it will be interesting to see what happens come mid-late January, that’s the time La Nina’s typically start to bring mild conditions, especially February, as the tropical forcing moves back to the maritime continent. This La Niña is obviously very strongly coupled, along with the -PDO, and if it follows climo that’s what we SHOULD see, however, given AGW, I wonder if something weird happens…..

They can still deliver in March though....1955-56 and 2017-18 are good examples.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah we have new normals now BUT the good thing is that January and February are still our coldest months.  December is absolutely finished as a winter month so it shouldn't even count as one.

 

Based on what ? Take a look at this and you can see over the last 100 plus years the wide fluctuations in temps in December. Same goes for snowfall....

monthlyannualtemp.pdf (weather.gov)

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the EPS and GEPS are raising heights north of Alaska in early January due to the MJO phase 7. But it also looks like they want to maintain the strong ridging south of the Aleutians and the -PNA. So we may get some type of compromise between those two features leading to more of a gradient-type pattern. But the question with all gradients is exactly where they set up. 

arent all patterns gradient patterns though?

 

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

until we have a few years in a row of below normal temps and or above average snowfall.......these things go in cycles - many people 2 months ago thought it would be cold and snowy this month....

December is our fastest warming winter month. That’s why the new climate 1991-2020 climate normals have the greatest winter temperature increase in December. The only colder than average December in the last decade was 2017. 
 

New 1991-2020 climate normals compared to 1981-2010

EWR

Dec….38.0….36.5….+1.5

Jan….32.8….31.6…..+1.2

Feb….35.1….34.6…..+0.5

Avg…..35.3….34.2….+1.1

 

NYC

Dec….39.1…..37.5….+1.6

Jan….33.7…..32.6...+1.1

Feb….35.9….35.3….+0.6

Avg…..36.2…35.1….+1.2

 

LGA

Dec…40.0….38.2….+1.8

Jan….34.4….32.9….+1.5

Feb….36.3….35.3….+1.0

Avg….36.9….35.5…..+1.4

 

JFK

Dec….38.3….37.7….+0.6

Jan…..32.8….32.7….+0.1

Feb….34.5….34.9…..+0.4

Avg….35.2….35.1…..+0.1

 

ISP

Dec….37.1…..35.6…..+1.5

Jan….31.9….30.6…..+1.3

Feb...33.3….32.8…..+0.5

Avg….34.1….33.0…..+1.1

 

BDR

Dec…37.0….35.4….+1.6

Jan….31.4….30.1….+1.3

Feb….33.1….32.4….+0.7

Avg…..33.8…32.6….+1.2

 

HPN

Dec…35.1….33.6….+1.5

Jan….29.8….28.3…+1.5

Feb….31.9….30.9….+1.0

Avg…..32.6….30.9…+1.4

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

December is our fastest warming winter month. That’s why the new climate 1991-2020 climate normals have the greatest winter temperature increase in December. The only colder than average December in the last decade was 2017. 
 

 

New 1991-2020 climate normals compared to 1981-2010

EWR

Dec….38.0….36.5….+1.5

Jan….32.8….31.6…..+1.2

Feb….35.1….34.6…..+0.5

Avg…..35.3….34.2….+1.1

 

NYC

Dec….39.1…..37.5….+1.6

Jan….33.7…..32.6...+1.1

Feb….35.9….35.3….+0.6

Avg…..36.2…35.1….+1.2

 

LGA

Dec…40.0….38.2….+1.8

Jan….34.4….32.9….+1.5

Feb….36.3….35.3….+1.0

Avg….36.9….35.5…..+1.4

 

JFK

Dec….38.3….37.7….+0.6

Jan…..32.8….32.7….+0.1

Feb….34.5….34.9…..+0.4

Avg….35.2….35.1…..+0.1

 

ISP

Dec….37.1…..35.6…..+1.5

Jan….31.9….30.6…..+1.3

Feb...33.3….32.8…..+0.5

Avg….34.1….33.0…..+1.1

 

BDR

Dec…37.0….35.4….+1.6

Jan….31.4….30.1….+1.3

Feb….33.1….32.4….+0.7

Avg…..33.8…32.6….+1.2

 

HPN

Dec…35.1….33.6….+1.5

Jan….29.8….28.3…+1.5

Feb….31.9….30.9….+1.0

Avg…..32.6….30.9…+1.4

Regardless until it is not included in meteorological winter officially it is still a winter month.

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