November 2021

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What's causing JFK to be warmer than NYC, is it because of Jamaica Bay (although the wind trajectory isn't coming off the bay?)  This isn't a radiational cooling night, with the wind, and JFK is usually colder when there is good radiational cooling.

 

Is this why LGA typically has the latest freeze?  It seems like its lows are always higher than the rest of the region, no matter the time of the year and no matter the wind direction

Weird thing about JFK is with offshore flow during the summer they are usually just as hot as EWR is and hotter than either NYC or LGA, I've always wondered of the buildings to the north and west of JFK actually create a downslope effect lol. I noticed that happens in the winter too, but it's less noticeable because NW winds are cold winds in the winter, but JFK still manages to be  milder than the other official locations.  It's usually a 2-3 degree difference.

 

Northern Queens is right on the water which is a heat source along with one of the strongest UHI zones in the city. So they get a double whammy of warming. LGA temperatures are very close to the surrounding micronet sites in Northern Queens. The LGA ASOS is on a grassy strip larger than most residences in that area. So the average backyard sensor in that area would probably be closer to concrete. Also notice how close it is to the water when the flow is NW, N, or NE. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

One would think a downslope wind would actually cause warming not cooling.

I think you mean CAA (cold air advection)

Oh if you mean cold air damming that's different, it's not a downslope wind, it's wind being blocked by the mountains so the cold air "piles up" near the foothills

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Northern Queens is right on the water which is a heat source along with one of the strongest UHI zones in the city. So they get a double whammy of warming. LGA temperatures are very close to the surrounding micronet sites in Northern Queens. The LGA ASOS is on a grassy strip larger than most residences in that area. So the average backyard sensor in that area would probably be closer to concrete. Also notice how close it is to the water when the flow is NW, N, or NE. 
 

 

Right, so is this why they're usually marginal in early season snowfall events while even JFK might get all snow in late October or November?  Do you have a similar map for JFK, Chris, I think their sitting is actually near the Nassau county border?

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, so is this why they're usually marginal in early season snowfall events while even JFK might get all snow in late October or November?  Do you have a similar map for JFK, Chris, I think their sitting is actually near the Nassau county border?

 

The JFK ASOS is in a marshy area that was filled close to Jamaica Bay and the 5 towns section of SW Nassau.

 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Warm waters does have some influence no matter the wind direction at the immediate coast. The other 2 times it’s been below freezing here, his part of bk has been a few to several degrees above here

Uhi

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Warm waters does have some influence no matter the wind direction at the immediate coast. The other 2 times it’s been below freezing here, his part of bk has been a few to several degrees above here

Your part is better than mine in terms of winter lol

[snowman19]

@bluewaveThis is exactly what I was talking about yesterday. Last night’s EPS is already correcting warmer in the long range and the end of the run was actually ugly looking. If it went further it was about to move a torch in. This is deja vu of the last 3 winters, more phantom -EPO/-WPO that disappear: 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The JFK ASOS is in a marshy area that was filled close to Jamaica Bay and the 5 towns section of SW Nassau.

 

Actually looks close to Rockaway Blvd/Tpke

[the_other_guy]

Just want to kick in some pilot stuff here

 

JFK is 5000 acres

LGA is 500 acres

 

LGA is a cluttered mess of buildings.

 

Most of JFK is open land

 

LGA is emblematic of Astoria.

JFK is emblematic of southern Nassau

 

Astoria was one of the hottest places I ever lived in. AC ran for almost 10 months a year

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

bluewaveThis is exactly what I was talking about yesterday. Last night’s EPS is already correcting warmer in the long range and the end of the run was actually ugly looking. If it went further it was about to move a torch in. This is deja vu of the last 3 winters, more phantom -EPO/-WPO that disappear: 

The models can only do so much when we have seen record North Pacific Jet activity this fall. You posted the other day how this will be the most +EPO fall. I posted the record winds in that area during the fall a few days ago. So we see a model history of underestimating the Pacific Jet long range. As to my post yesterday, we have been in a -WPO  pattern this month. And that is what the forecasts have been showing going forward. But if that Aleutians ridge is weaker or fades faster, that means the long range will correct warmer. That’s why getting a poleward Aleutians ridge is so important. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models can only do so much when we have seen record North Pacific Jet activity this fall. You posted the other day how this will be the most +EPO fall. I posted the record winds in that area during the fall a few days ago. So we see a model history of underestimating the Pacific Jet long range. As to my post yesterday, we have been in a -WPO  pattern this month. And that is what the forecasts have been showing going forward. But if that Aleutians ridge is weaker or fades faster, that means the long range will correct warmer. That’s why getting a poleward Aleutians ridge is so important. 

It seems to me the ensembles have continually tried showing a torch beyond day 11-12 and constantly been having to correct cooler or to a less hostile pattern the last 2 weeks than they keep showing beyond that range  

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewaveThis is exactly what I was talking about yesterday. Last night’s EPS is already correcting warmer in the long range and the end of the run was actually ugly looking. If it went further it was about to move a torch in. This is deja vu of the last 3 winters, more phantom -EPO/-WPO that disappear: 

 

You are wrong again. The eps got colder overnight in the 10-15 day range. 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Overnight low of 29 here.

Current temp 32

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

You are wrong again. The eps got colder overnight in the 10-15 day range. 

 

 

Hate to say it but that looks more of a product of a -wpo. Can you show an expanded version of that?

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Hate to say it but that looks more of a product of a -wpo. Can you show an expanded version of that?

It is a negative wpo pattern which can benefit us. My point is that he said the model got warmer which it didn't. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems to me the ensembles have continually tried showing a torch beyond day 11-12 and constantly been having to correct cooler or to a less hostile pattern the last 2 weeks than they keep showing beyond that range  

Yep

December La Nina's are usually really good for our area. The 2nd half of winter is when things get iffy.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

December La Nina's are usually really good for our area. The 2nd half of winter is when things get iffy.

it seems hard to use any solid rules anymore.  In the 80s and before the tendency was as you mention.  The 90s into the 2000s it was more torchy in December with cold Januarys then torch Februarys.  Recent La Niñas have tended more to resemble the 80s and before pattern of cold early then warm 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you see how places in the south like Atlanta, Savannah and Tallahassee are getting their first freeze right now too? How is it colder in Tallahassee (28) than it is here?!  Doesn't the cold air have to pass over us before it gets down to them?

 

Also I saw it mentioned yesterday that over the last 25 years the average date of first freeze has moved 9 days later.....from 11/11 to 11/20

 

Atlanta’s elevation is also 1000 feet ASL. There is no downsloping there either as they sit on the Piedmont. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Atlanta’s elevation is also 1000 feet ASL. There is no downsloping there either as they sit on the Piedmont. 

I think there is some degree of downslope but it’s not unusual to see them or Nashville be colder than us.  Even in the 85 outbreak they got to like -9 or something insane in Atlanta while NYC was only -2

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

it seems hard to use any solid rules anymore.  In the 80s and before the tendency was as you mention.  The 90s into the 2000s it was more torchy in December with cold Januarys then torch Februarys.  Recent La Niñas have tended more to resemble the 80s and before pattern of cold early then warm 

2010-2011 was a La Nina if I can remember correctly. The big block helped us big time in December and January.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

2010-2011 was a La Nina if I can remember correctly. The big block helped us big time in December and January.

It was a classic East based start.  We also likely got aided somewhat by the blocking from the prior winter as well as the lag in the STJ.  Often winters with consistent blocking or -NAO you’ll see the ensuing November and December the next year also have blocking, even if the indices for that winter don’t necessarily favor a -NAO on paper.  Nov/Dec 96 and 2010 are good examples.  The STJ lag has shown up before too after stronger El Niños to start the next winter.  Even 93-94 some say the multi year nino from 90-93 may be why we were active that winter on a lag  

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You are wrong again. The eps got colder overnight in the 10-15 day range. 

 

 

The end of the run was going to torch, warm air was pushing in from the west and you know it. Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles could see where it was headed

[dmillz25]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The end of the run was going to torch, warm air was pushing in from the west and you know it. Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles could see where it was headed

We all know that will change 100 times

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems to me the ensembles have continually tried showing a torch beyond day 11-12 and constantly been having to correct cooler or to a less hostile pattern the last 2 weeks than they keep showing beyond that range  

The point about the Euro underestimating the +EPO long range is correct. But the EPS always had a colder +PNA -WPO pattern to end the month. It was never forecasting a torch for us. The reason this week was a little colder than the November 8th forecast was due to the stronger -NAO. Notice the stronger +EPO trough near Alaska than the EPS had back on November 8th.

EPS forecasts from November 8th 

Nov 22-29

 

+EPO is stronger and -NAO more negative

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

it seems hard to use any solid rules anymore.  In the 80s and before the tendency was as you mention.  The 90s into the 2000s it was more torchy in December with cold Januarys then torch Februarys.  Recent La Niñas have tended more to resemble the 80s and before pattern of cold early then warm 

January is our most reliable month for cold and snow

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The point about the Euro underestimating the +EPO long range is correct. But the EPS always had a colder +PNA -WPO pattern to end the month. It was never forecasting a torch for us. The reason this week was a little colder than the November 8th forecast was due to the stronger -NAO. Notice the stronger +EPO trough near Alaska than the EPS had back on November 8th.

EPS forecasts from November 8th 

Nov 22-29

 

+EPO is stronger and -NAO more negative

 

 

 

 

why do so many ignore the nao in their forecasts?  long range forecasts are USELESS because nao forecasting isn't reliable.

astrology is more accurate-- the point being how accurate a long range forecast is is no higher than one would expect from randomness 

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January is our most reliable month for cold and snow

 

Cold but not snow 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why do so many ignore the nao in their forecasts?  long range forecasts are USELESS because nao forecasting isn't reliable.

astrology is more accurate-- the point being how accurate a long range forecast is is no higher than one would expect from randomness 

 

They didn’t ignore the NAO in their forecasts. But a forecast issued on November 8th for the 22-29 is going to miss a few things. Notice how good a job it did with the colder signal for the end of the month. So I would consider that EPS forecast very good for such a long range forecast. Just understand that it underestimated the big +EPO trough in Alaska.  So if  we don’t have a -NAO and the long range EPO verifies more positive, then the temperatures could beat expectations to the upside. That’s why you have to be careful when dealing with a record Pacific Jet and long range forecasts. Maybe someday the models will have AI built in and the forecast limit near 2 weeks can get extended further out in time. 

[SnoSki14]

On 11/1/2021 at 8:55 AM, snowman19 said:

As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month 

Fail

[BxEngine]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Fail

Listen. Im all for pointing out snowman’s incessant lack of humility for someone who is constantly wrong. But im no so sure YOU should be the one doin it, my dude. Back to the weather.