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October 2021


Stormlover74
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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Meteo-France seasonal shows  what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts

FFF31C6E-F545-45CF-B78D-6029646B3E82.png.99d527c926839479e3b488e3c6d319bd.png


9F674A19-3B40-490C-B6C6-80E8A057DDB9.png.e5427c0852a2ad75b39b20381956c378.png
 

A00B78F3-A572-4DAC-8622-697AD78C8A14.png.a4dbe63b01d5c115269d8a508dbeb7b7.png

Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter

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38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Will be the only thing that'll prevent a 11/12 type winter

We all thought that at this time last year..Go back to the posts last November when it was in the 70's and no cold air in sight.Turned out to be a decent winter.It could be a brutally cold fall like 89 and turn out to be a crappy warm winter.Hard to lock in a pattern 2 months ahead.

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6 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

We all thought that at this time last year..Go back to the posts last November when it was in the 70's and no cold air in sight.Turned out to be a decent winter.It could be a brutally cold fall like 89 and turn out to be a crappy warm winter.Hard to lock in a pattern 2 months ahead.

A very warm winter is a lock but blocking could still create snowfall opportunities. 

I don't think we'll ever see a cold winter again.

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A very warm winter is a lock but blocking could still create snowfall opportunities. 

I don't think we'll ever see a cold winter again.

Nothing is a lock 2 months away in weather. Long range forecasting is not a accuarate science.Even the long range forecasters who post on this board will tell you the same thing

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

@donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis?

Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site

The new data from CPC comes out tomorrow. It should be negative at that point.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter

Yeah, last winter was the strongest -AO that was south based. So it was the warmest on record for such a low -AO reading. You can see the -AO pressing further south into the Northeast over time.
 

97395A5F-683E-47CC-A01A-6CA6384A75C4.png.b2965d35b1b0b3c31227093b6917fe03.png
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years ago a very negative AO ment very cold at the time...now it yields a snowstorm...

Feb 1969 and Feb 2020 had the lowest AO number after a major storm...Dec 2009 had a snowstorm in progress and 2011 would get one ten days later...even March 2018 had major storms after the AO minimum...

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High of 82 yesterday then all the way down to 48.  A very sunny and pleasant 62/48.  Cooler the next 60 hours peaking Monday (10/18) night into Tuesday morning.  First 40s for metro/ upper 30s for inland?  We'll see.  Roller coaster back up by Wed - Fri with mid 70s and perhaps a stray upper 70s (77078) in the warmer spots.  Then the ride goes back down next weekend 10/23 and into the next week 10/24.   Beyond that models hint at cut off ULL could pump heights and humidity by the end of the month, likely it will come with rain near the end of the month.

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

3 days for each record.

Don, can you post the list for EWR (top 10 years and # of days 70+ / 80(+)?  Also, is that calendar year or just from June ?  Assuming its the whole year.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, last winter was the strongest -AO that was south based. So it was the warmest on record for such a low -AO reading. You can see the -AO pressing further south into the Northeast over time.
 

97395A5F-683E-47CC-A01A-6CA6384A75C4.png.b2965d35b1b0b3c31227093b6917fe03.png
38FD15E8-946B-4070-B5DC-B515BD1AD1D6.png.17f934d0931d79e12a34c3f7197d6a41.png

2A03B060-6115-4152-9C9C-57D6DDB0E45D.png.842027ed2e8dc48e89fe2ae7f6110d77.png

F4370774-AEF4-4959-BB91-F2FBB28178B3.png.1b99cc3519e5c4b8416e252907633a21.png

B7D37A1C-88A9-4258-9A1E-1679AF041F03.png.a12e827e162821f9f4ca59f0ee02c40d.png

Very interesting. Last winter, it was so far south it was linking up with the WAR

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

70 or above: 5th place

75 or above: 1st with 126 days (old record: 124, 1971, 2001, and 2010)

80 or above: Tied for 12th

wow, such a difference between 70-75-80 lol.  No chance of catching the 70 record is there (I assume 80 is out of reach?)

80 is actually a tipping point for me, where I have to use A/C

But the last couple of days I've had to turn it on when the temps reached 75, so maybe that's a more accurate indication.  I have a lot of sunlight coming in too.

Today is actually enjoyable, although I was shivering last night.

 

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31 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

winters will never be as cold as they were back in the 1970's and 1980's in this area unless something huge happens like a massive volcanic eruption something like that... that climate change for you..'

much more snow now though- would you rather have the dry cold winters of back then which were boring aside from 1977-78 or the milder snowier wetter winters we have now?

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

years ago a very negative AO ment very cold at the time...now it yields a snowstorm...

Feb 1969 and Feb 2020 had the lowest AO number after a major storm...Dec 2009 had a snowstorm in progress and 2011 would get one ten days later...even March 2018 had major storms after the AO minimum...

the weather now is MUCH more exciting than it was back then

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, last winter was the strongest -AO that was south based. So it was the warmest on record for such a low -AO reading. You can see the -AO pressing further south into the Northeast over time.
 

97395A5F-683E-47CC-A01A-6CA6384A75C4.png.b2965d35b1b0b3c31227093b6917fe03.png
38FD15E8-946B-4070-B5DC-B515BD1AD1D6.png.17f934d0931d79e12a34c3f7197d6a41.png

2A03B060-6115-4152-9C9C-57D6DDB0E45D.png.842027ed2e8dc48e89fe2ae7f6110d77.png

F4370774-AEF4-4959-BB91-F2FBB28178B3.png.1b99cc3519e5c4b8416e252907633a21.png

B7D37A1C-88A9-4258-9A1E-1679AF041F03.png.a12e827e162821f9f4ca59f0ee02c40d.png

whats causing this and could it mean another extreme arctic outbreak for Texas this winter?
 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

much more snow now though- would you rather have the dry cold winters of back then which were boring aside from 1977-78 or the milder snowier wetter winters we have now?

we had cold winters in the mid 1980;s into the early 90;s as well.

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i dont want going forward muggy humid octobers.. i prefer chilli

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

much more snow now though- would you rather have the dry cold winters of back then which were boring aside from 1977-78 or the milder snowier wetter winters we have now?

so you prefer unbearable summer heat and humidity going forward as we are having recently?

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i dont want going forward muggy humid octobers.. i prefer chilli

so you prefer unbearable summer heat and humidity going forward as we are having recently?

I like dry heat.....but why cant we have the best of both worlds....for example 2009-10 winter, then 2010 summer (my favorite, hot and dry very comfy!), and then 2010-11 winter

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but this has lasted longer.....compare Dec 2009 through October 2012.....so much excitement, two epic winters and two epic summers and an October snowstorm to cap it all off!

 

Dec 59 to Feb 61 yielded five major snowstorms and hurricane Donna which was one of the greatest hurricanes to hit this area...1959 was the first white Christmas in NYC in 11 years...

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9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Dec 59 to Feb 61 yielded five major snowstorms and hurricane Donna which was one of the greatest hurricanes to hit this area...1959 was the first white Christmas in NYC in 11 years...

I would like to experience February 1961 that sounds like an awesome storm and with today's climate with more precip it might have topped January 2016 at JFK.

 I am glad I live near JFK, I'm one of the few in the area that can say I experienced a 30"+ snowstorm!

 

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