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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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On 10/4/2021 at 1:54 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter. image.thumb.png.bd6419e722e696a99ac7198bfa465c36.png

 

I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013:

Screenshot_20211009-091405_Chrome.thumb.jpg.7f914da01d977bf405ff9b1ccf78ecb5.jpg

 

BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013:

Screenshot_20211011-221504_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3ed524504daf17d69807c3ff79f00730.jpg

 

Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013:

Screenshot_20211009-091405_Chrome.thumb.jpg.7f914da01d977bf405ff9b1ccf78ecb5.jpg

 

BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013:

Screenshot_20211011-221504_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3ed524504daf17d69807c3ff79f00730.jpg

 

Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. 

 

 

Very good point 

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24 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Yeah that's the cool thing about the weather, nobody is. If you're going to poo poo his idea at least explain why. 

 

12 hours ago, madwx said:

561 height line going thru Chicago, seems like NW flow and upper 50s, not early winter

substitute upper 50s with upper 30s and that's what this pattern would be in winter,   dry NW flow and not all that cold due to the ridge being pumped up over the plains.

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33 minutes ago, madwx said:

 

substitute upper 50s with upper 30s and that's what this pattern would be in winter,   dry NW flow and not all that cold due to the ridge being pumped up over the plains.

Yeah upper low swinging down to our east, at best it would be lake effect, but otherwise just crap. I will pass on that look.

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17 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

What's a favorable look for clippers for the Lakes versus the depiction we are talking about?

You want the a broader trough that encompasses more of the midwest and less amplitude in the upstream ridge.   I mean this is all a bit too much analysis of one map since patterns are composed of many days to multiple weeks and not just a snapshot of one day.   We need to look at how the entire flow of the NH is evolving.    And wavelengths will be longer by Dec/Jan anyway.

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2 minutes ago, madwx said:

You want the a broader trough that encompasses more of the midwest and less amplitude in the upstream ridge.   I mean this is all a bit too much analysis of one map since patterns are composed of many days to multiple weeks and not just a snapshot of one day.   We need to look at how the entire flow of the NH is evolving.    And wavelengths will be longer by Dec/Jan anyway.

Exactly, its highest dependent on the Pacific. Negative Epo usually brings it. 

image.jpeg.b517baa9d0128107a789ef7331dec80f.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Joe Bastardi is one of our greatest minds even though he can be a bit biased 

No, no, and hell no. He's so bad. I don't get why he's so popular among weenies on this forum. Every winter it's like Bastardi said this or Bastardi predicited that. Like who cares? He's never been that good at forecasting to begin with. Plus there's the whole climate change denier thing which just makes him 1000x worse. Like how can you be a weather forecaster and not believe in climate change at this point? I just don't get it.

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12 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real 

He says cold in the east every year and collects money from stupid people that believe it. He is a snake oil salesman.

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