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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It may be a rough winter. This is exactly what happened in 2011-2012. Lets hope it doesn't last through winter, it rarely does.

 

Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific.

I'm not sure, but the cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska is the last thing you ever want to see right before winter starts.

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Just perusing the forum from January 2017 and there was much discussion about the awfulness of that winter season (and several consecutive winters before) as well. The second half of winter got better, obviously...These long snow-droughts each winter with huge warm ridges seem pretty common.

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah that time period is pretty locked in for warmth I think. Its on all ENS guidance and close enough for somewhat good accuracy

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_2.png

Im not that concerned yet... 

For you guys though that need and feed off LES Id be getting a bit nervous. All the GTA needs is a few decent 6-10" snowstorms and we fly past worst case scenario. Most of the GTA only averages 40-50" a year so thats why we have a much lower ceiling for what can be called a good winter. 

Ideally Id love for winter to play out with early season snowstorms from Mid November-Early December the type that brings first real cold of the season and a wet snow of 4-6", decent cold and one big December storm of 8-12" a week before Christmas. 

Cold New Years and another decent storm to start January and then torch and early spring with little to no snow in March

I would give a winter like that an A+ haha 

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22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Just perusing the forum from January 2017 and there was much discussion about the awfulness of that winter season (and several consecutive winters before) as well. The second half of winter got better, obviously...These long snow-droughts each winter with huge warm ridges seem pretty common.

Yeah long range forecasting isnt that accurate, you never know.

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah long range forecasting isnt that accurate, you never know.

Interesting thing...reading the forum for a storm that had the "perfect track" for CNY at the end of January and there were boundary layer issues with temps....supposed to get 4 to 10 inches of snow and everybody ended up with junk. As you've said, climate change is real. What used to be "enough cold" for snow from synoptic systems just doesn't exist anymore. We need an extra cold air supply.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Man o’ man. These LR’s sure have been depressing the last few days. That SE ridge is starting to feel permanent. Puke

I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario.  If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012.   Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February.  You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it.  

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59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

How can you tell that from a probability map? Lol

Its a 40-50% chance of above average, that's not that high, you have a 50%+ chance of something else aka Avg-below..

I hope you’re right. But that map features a consistent negative pna pattern. Looks like a bad pacific to me. 

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Regional radars showing initial round of showers and embedded
thunder just entering far western New York this afternoon. Instability
and shear across the area at this stage of the day very limited.

Shear and instability should get better as we move into the late
afternoon and early evening ahead of the surface cold front
currently across far eastern Michigan and western Ohio. The
expectation is that a somewhat organized line of convection will
enter far western New York around 6/7 pm then translate eastward
across the area. Convection likely exiting eastern areas around
midnight or so. This timing is suggested by the latest 16/17z
runs of the HRRR. We will need to monitor this convection as it
moves across the area with the potential for some stronger wind
gusts.

Behind the front, notably cooler air and some gustier surface winds
of 25 to 35 mph will develop tonight. Incoming cooler air aloft
could generate a minor lake/upslope response east of the lakes.

Friday continues to look like a much cooler day with temperatures
just getting into the 50s, with higher terrain staying in the
40s. Plenty of cloud cover with some spotty northwest flow lake
showers possible
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