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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

what time were these all recorded?

Ive got this timing down to eliminate any questions about lagging temps...

PWS update ever 5 minutes at 4's and 9's... 4, 9, 14, 19, 24, 29 ect...

KBUF updates at 54 minutes of every hour.

Both PWS and KBUF will update ever hour together at the 54 minute mark.  Set your site map over KBUF at 958 hit refresh and you will have a grab of all current temps within 5 minutes of each other, before the next update at 959.

For this screen grab I took it at 958pm.  KBUF temp and all surrounding PWS temps were updated at 954pm.

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

last years was confirmed to have an issue but KBUF replaced the broken part. This years data is fine. SYR is equal to KBUF with temps this year and they have no lake keeping them warm.

BW there’s one issue with tonight…the make us nowhere near keeping the area 10 miles from it warmer than GI, UB North and all the surrounding sites! There is a much larger driver affecting the KBUF temp.

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35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ive got this timing down to eliminate any questions about lagging temps...

PWS update ever 5 minutes at 4's and 9's... 4, 9, 14, 19, 24, 29 ect...

KBUF updates at 54 minutes of every hour.

Both PWS and KBUF will update ever hour together at the 54 minute mark.  Set your site map over KBUF at 958 hit refresh and you will have a grab of all current temps within 5 minutes of each other, before the next update at 959.

For this screen grab I took it at 958pm.  KBUF temp and all surrounding PWS temps were updated at 954pm.

Where do you see that the PWS stations update at those times? Most of North Buffalo is in the low/mid 50s right now.

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11 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I don't know... it just never looks right... Here is the 10 pm live reporting (KBUF updated 4 minutes prior to this grab at 958, all stations reported temps at 954pm ).  It's just not right that KBUF is running almost 5 degrees above every other location surrounding it.  You can question the recreational PWS data but look at how consistent the sites are across central Erie County.  The KBUF number is just such an outlier it should be tossed from the data set, not made the official #.  Even caught one of the local Spectrum News mets questioning the temp at KBUF on air tonight.  We have believers!693770546_9-28958pmwide.png.99466e5fa5817f4b85ee116aa9464442.png

Good point about "recreational" temp data versus "official" in terms of temps.  We'd all clearly accept the official station data over other sources but...it doesn't seem credible that they're ALL wrong and biased in the same direction on a consistent basis.  Definately something going on.

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

It’s like they don’t even want to question it… Here’s another “record” type event involving warm overnight temps…

41AEBB96-2311-4D4F-8FE7-10FFEDA94196.jpeg

The highlighted isn't odd, we've been pretty warm this month. What were the low temps in the surrounding stations last night? KBUF hit the low between 5 and 6 am

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html

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This frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary east of Lake
Ontario Saturday Night, with increasing chances for rain showers.
Additionally a shortwave from the west will bring chances for rain
showers towards WNY later Saturday Night. Instability will be
minimal, and will not include any thunder within the forecast.

The increased cloud cover for Saturday Night will promote
temperatures several degrees warmer than Friday Night, with
overnight lows Saturday Night in the lower 50s well inland, to
around 60 near the lakeshore.
Model consensus diverges heading into the first part of the new
week. GFS continues with the dry weather owed to high pressure
remaining in control. The Canadian shows ridging building back in
from the north, pushing the boundary back to the south of the area,
drying things out for the most part. Meanwhile the Euro stalls the
boundary over our region keeping showers in the forecast right
through the end of the period. With all of this in mind, SChc PoPs
will be in place across the majority of the area due the degree of
uncertainty amongst model guidance, with the feeling that better
chances will exist across the western Southern Tier and lesser
chances east of Lake Ontario at this time.
Daytime highs will average in the 60s each day, while overnight lows
average from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region.

wpcwx+frontsf096 (8).gif

wpcwx+frontsf120 (3).gif

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The highlighted isn't odd, we've been pretty warm this month. What were the low temps in the surrounding stations last night? KBUF hit the low between 5 and 6 am

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html

So this is were it gets strange... All the stations hit their minimum temp between 5am and 7am.  KBUF actually was somewhat in line with the other stations at that time frame only 1.5-2.0 degrees above the average station temp.  The larger variance appears to have been experienced earlier in the overnight as KBUF was running far and away warmer (5-6 degree range) for several hours.  This is the same large variance we saw earlier in the night too between 9pm and 11pm.  I think this would support more of the UHI theory over a sensor as the trapped heat would slowly lose its grip as the night went along.  Interesting note here... KBUF didn't drop below 50 until after 2 am, while all other stations were below 50 by midnight.      

9-29am morning lows.png

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So this is were it gets strange... All the stations hit their minimum temp between 5am and 7am.  KBUF actually was somewhat in line with the other stations at that time frame only 1.5-2.0 degrees above the average station temp.  The larger variance appears to have been experienced earlier in the overnight as KBUF was running far and away warmer (5-6 degree range) for several hours.  This is the same large variance we saw earlier in the night too between 9pm and 11pm.  I think this would support more of the UHI theory over a sensor as the trapped heat would slowly lose its grip as the night went along.  Interesting note here... KBUF didn't drop below 50 until after 2 am, while all other stations were below 50 by midnight.      

9-29am morning lows.png

For that UHI effect, maybe check the wind direction. Was it pushing that warmer air from over the parking lot to the sensor? 

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