BuffaloWeather Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 That's a massive ridge on the EPS/GEFS for early October. Going to support quite a few days of 70+ Keeping the pool open until November this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Rgem in fine form lol Getting ready for those over exaggerated precipitation numbers come winter lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: I'll not forget the 1.5" of ZR the RGEM plotted over my town last February. Needless to say, it was a little bit off. Lol.. Yeah, rgem is usually pretty good at Lake effect placement and the NWS sides with Canadian guidance more times than not but it's precipitation amounts tend to run to high imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem in fine form lol Getting ready for those over exaggerated precipitation numbers come winter lol Yeah we have to be careful with RGEM this winter. Take totals and slash by 60-70%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 In the wake of the cold front, renewed cold air advection will result in another round of lake-effect showers east of both lakes rest of Saturday night. Unlike the regime we have been in since last night, it is colder in the mid-levels with this upper low later this weekend. Result is higher lake equilibrium levels of 25-30 kft and sufficient lake induced CAPE for possible thunder with the lake effect. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s again for the Southern Tier and around 50 to the lower 50s on the lake plains. In the wake of a cold front from the evening/night prior, cooler air will spill across the region from the northwest (temperatures at 850mb dropping to single digits Celsius). Meanwhile aloft, the trough responsible for the cold frontal passage will have its negatively tilted trough axis across the region Sunday. This axis will then sweep across the lower Great Lakes and into New England through the end of the weekend and the start of the work week, causing the winds to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly. Residual moisture, combined with the cool temperatures aloft will support general chances for lake and orographic enhanced rain showers across the region with the best chances lying east/southeast of both lakes from Sunday through Monday. Drier air will begin to filter across the region Monday night causing shower chances to peter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Hurricane Sam expected to reach M status.. Bermuda may need to watch out for this one.. Gfs curves SAM around some atlantic HP sparring the east coast, Canadian blocks Sam right into New England and upstate NY..Lol Obviously at a weakened State.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Euro skirts the coast..Still way out there though.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Showers ahead of a cold front will move into WNY today, but these will hold off until late in the day. There will be plenty of time for outdoor activities before the showers reach far WNY mid-afternoon and Rochester around sunset. Warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Lows on Tuesday and Wednesday night could drop into the 30s across some of coolest interior valley locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 This is only a composite for January.. Seems like Negative EPO/NAO, positive AO is the way to go lol -AO works as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 EPO and NAO both positive? Cancel winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 Yeah EPO controls everything imo. Neg EPO in winter always gives us a chance at snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 Aug-Oct above average should set us up nicely to finally have a chance at a below average month between Nov-Feb. These patterns usually last around 2-3 months at a time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 19 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Hurricane Sam expected to reach M status.. Bermuda may need to watch out for this one.. Gfs curves SAM around some atlantic HP sparring the east coast, Canadian blocks Sam right into New England and upstate NY..Lol Obviously at a weakened State.. That would be soooo awesome! A sizzling rain here. Just what we need... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 Saw this article shared by a local met. Gives some hope for a decent winter in the Northeast US. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2021-2022-usa-europe-early-look-fa/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 That Euro map for the winter looks like a "Primary going to Lake Erie and giving us rain, with a secondary popping off New England and missing us mostly to the east." lol A few systems might succeed and give us the slightly higher anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: That Euro map for the winter looks like a "Primary going to Lake Erie and giving us rain, with a secondary popping off New England and missing us mostly to the east." lol A few systems might succeed and give us the slightly higher anomaly. Looks good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 We picked up 0.17" of rain overnight from the front.. Another beautiful day on tap.. Feels good to have the windows open.. All week is looking pleasant.. Monday Showers likely, mainly between 7am and 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 68. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Monday Night A chance of showers, mainly before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Saturday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: That Euro map for the winter looks like a "Primary going to Lake Erie and giving us rain, with a secondary popping off New England and missing us mostly to the east." lol A few systems might succeed and give us the slightly higher anomaly. You should move back to Tennessee so we can have our real winters back haha. Jk…. kind of. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: You should move back to Tennessee so we can have our real winters back haha. Jk…. kind of. Lol Hah! Tennessee?!? Never lived there.... In-laws live there and we visit them...whenever we do that, you guys get winter here. True to form, Sizzlecuze was at the forecasted high for the day by noonish, made it several degrees warmer than forecasted, and was the warmest today of anywhere in Upstate NY. (Long Island was a couple degrees warmer.) The models need to be corrected to make up for the Sizzle effect of the hellmouth of the Cuse combined with my presence. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 It is looking like a beautiful fall week coming up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: That Euro map for the winter looks like a "Primary going to Lake Erie and giving us rain, with a secondary popping off New England and missing us mostly to the east." lol A few systems might succeed and give us the slightly higher anomaly. I’m hoping it is an indication of a clipper pattern where some pop off the coast, and the large scale model just can’t pick up on the localized lake effect events that follow each clipper…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, winter_rules said: I’m hoping it is an indication of a clipper pattern where some pop off the coast, and the large scale model just can’t pick up on the localized lake effect events that follow each clipper…. Good thought. I could see that being a possibility. I think most of us are reaaaalllly hoping we can have a winter with a good clipper pattern. It's been quite some time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 Cannot believe October is Friday... So far through the 26th. BUF: +3.2 ROC: +0.8 WAT: +2.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Some pretty good rain shower activity this morning, picked up about 1/3" overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 STF NOW... The short term forecast for the eastern Lake Ontario region, including Pulaski, Watertown, and Lowville. Fairly widespread rain this morning will temporarily taper off to a few showers by midday. In the meantime though, the rain will continue to be moderately heavy at times, especially over the Tug Hill where an inch of rain has already fallen through 10:30 AM. While the afternoon will then be mainly rainfree, another front will bring additional showers to the region late today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cannot believe October is Friday... So far through the 26th. BUF: +3.2 ROC: +0.8 WAT: +2.3 I think that Rochester and Buffalo temp difference is kinda large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think that Rochester and Buffalo temp difference is kinda large Yes. Only thing I can think of is Erie keeping higher low temps in BUF. Or maybe the giant parking lot next the the station... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 Was mentioned that Hurricane Sam is actually keeping the Northeast cooler than projected. interesting stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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