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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Latest precipitation forecast Euro/WPC.. Only through Friday as we have more potential liquid after this..

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A feeling that a wet start to autumn is in the way…dry first half of the year and a wet second half…and not to get BW too excited but if you look at both the 12z GFS and 12z European, both appear by the last week of September it appears there are several “clipper” type systems that get blocked off from an early Greenland block and soon over the Great Lakes…if it’s was only 2 months from now 

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7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Thank you! And when he zoomed in closer and showed Williamsville, UB, Lancaster and Tonawanda they were all 7 to 8 degrees cooler!!! 

All the stations update at different times, its tough to take those maps literally. That's my take as KBUF said nothing wrong with thermometer a few weeks ago. 

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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

A feeling that a wet start to autumn is in the way…dry first half of the year and a wet second half…and not to get BW too excited but if you look at both the 12z GFS and 12z European, both appear by the last week of September it appears there are several “clipper” type systems that get blocked off from an early Greenland block and soon over the Great Lakes…if it’s was only 2 months from now 

This has to be the year to get our clipper pattern going. They are more favored in La Nina years vs El Nino. 

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12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

A feeling that a wet start to autumn is in the way…dry first half of the year and a wet second half…and not to get BW too excited but if you look at both the 12z GFS and 12z European, both appear by the last week of September it appears there are several “clipper” type systems that get blocked off from an early Greenland block and soon over the Great Lakes…if it’s was only 2 months from now 

Just love the looks from all the models after this big front rolls through.  Not even looking into the details just the consensus we will go into a stormy period with a lot of LER action and I would expect a perfect period for some spout chasin.  Canadian low res even popping concentrated convection along Lake Erie on Sunday.  

5B06276F-82EC-4E9A-8F55-FE63B59AB630.gif

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33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't know where Syracuse has their sensor. I think it must be right where the planes spit hot air out their butts...

Really? It's the hottest place in the state today other than Buffalo.

It was tongue and cheek bro lol

I was referring to the map BW posted that shows syracuse area with less +anomalies then other parts of the state..

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26 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ok… the UHI theory hits a bit of a snag… The KBUF temp is taken at the ASOS which turns out is located in the dead center of the airfield… There is a lot of newer commercial buildup near along the east side of the airport… but also a lot of wide open area as well… 

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So basically it’s only feet from the runway where several large commercial airline jets take off every hour? Lol 

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32 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

So basically it’s only feet from the runway where several large commercial airline jets take off every hour? Lol 

No.  Interesting tidbit.  The horizontal and vertical runways your seeing near the ASOS are actually the originals from the 1930s when the airport was constructed.  They got beat to sht during WW2 use and rather than rebuild them the 2 new longer crisscross runways were built as aircraft size was increasing going into the 1950s.   If you notice the X’s on the pavement indicating aircraft to not use.  
 

I believe they use the area for training, storage, etc but your not seeing regular air traffic passing along that area.

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4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ok… the UHI theory hits a bit of a snag… The KBUF temp is taken at the ASOS which turns out is located in the dead center of the airfield… There is a lot of newer commercial buildup near along the east side of the airport… but also a lot of wide open area as well… 

9B2190AD-A704-4275-AAB4-0FD6902DF2DA.jpeg

6523706F-A0AB-49C2-A4B8-883773D16D47.jpeg

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I’m not sure if this hurts or helps that theory IMO.  The amount of pavement and building within one square mile of that ASOS is pretty intense. There is some serious thermal mass. 

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EDIT - OK, so I tossed the 8 closest PWS (by distance from KBUF) into a bookmark and plotted them to the map. The numbers plotted represent the lowest "overnight" LOW TEMP recorded at each site throughout the entire morning today..  Good agreement by nearby stations so have to believe issues is around KBUF reporting site.  Will run this again tomorrow morning and see if anomaly repeats?

 

9-20 LOW TEMPS.png

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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

OK, so I tossed the 8 closest PWS (by distance from KBUF) into a bookmark and plotted them to the map.  Somethings not right at night.  Good agreement by nearby stations so have to believe issues is around KBUF reporting site.  Will run this again tomorrow morning and see if anomaly repeats?

9-20 LOW TEMPS.png

As has been stated by others the PWS update by the minute where as KBUF only updates once an hour so perhaps that reading was from almost an hour before the PWS readings your seeing? 

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1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

As has been stated by others the PWS update by the minute where as KBUF only updates once an hour so perhaps that reading was from almost an hour before the PWS readings your seeing? 

No...  These represent the lowest overnight low temperature that was observed throughout the entire morning, not just a specific one time reading.  

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WU actually stores the PWS data by month, downloaded into a spreadsheet pretty easy and added some color... now that stands out!  These are the daily MIN TEMPS at the closest sites to KBUF (<3miles away).  KBUF isnt the warmest low every day, but on average it is.  One fluke day it was coldest due to PM storms and our low for the day coming at 1159pm.  Thing I notice is that on the average days KBUF isn't just a little warmer its like 2-3 full degrees warmers than the other nearby sites.  IMO something is likely causing the "overnight low" TEMP to be inflated on a regular basis in comparison to all of these neighboring sites.

 

Thoughts?

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3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

WU actually stores the PWS data by month, downloaded into a spreadsheet pretty easy and added some color... now that stands out!  These are the daily MIN TEMPS at the closest sites to KBUF (<3miles away).  KBUF isnt the warmest low every day, but on average it is.  One fluke day it was coldest due to PM storms and our low for the day coming at 1159pm.  Thing I notice is that on the average days KBUF isn't just a little warmer its like 2-3 full degrees warmers than the other nearby sites.  IMO something is likely causing the "overnight low" TEMP to be inflated on a regular basis in comparison to all of these neighboring sites.

 

Thoughts?

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I’m guessing the amount of concrete surrounding the site is keeping temps up at night. The amount of heat stored would be no different than UHI in a city. 

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5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

WU actually stores the PWS data by month, downloaded into a spreadsheet pretty easy and added some color... now that stands out!  These are the daily MIN TEMPS at the closest sites to KBUF (<3miles away).  KBUF isnt the warmest low every day, but on average it is.  One fluke day it was coldest due to PM storms and our low for the day coming at 1159pm.  Thing I notice is that on the average days KBUF isn't just a little warmer its like 2-3 full degrees warmers than the other nearby sites.  IMO something is likely causing the "overnight low" TEMP to be inflated on a regular basis in comparison to all of these neighboring sites.

 

Thoughts?

1509088987_stationlocation.png.0ccbd3d6c780877f4f082016e925c5fd.pngheatmap.thumb.png.a94856edaabd0c8791563912ce7be320.png

I'm discussing this with a few Mets on the AMX discord. OSU and Stebo are both mets and Stebo works at the Detroit airport taking observations. Stebo said they check the instruments and inspect them all the time so its highly unlikely its an instrument issue. As we already discussed its most likely an urban heat issue. Everywhere I go in Buffalo there is construction. 

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48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm discussing this with a few Mets on the AMX discord. OSU and Stebo are both mets and Stebo works at the Detroit airport taking observations. Stebo said they check the instruments and inspect them all the time so its highly unlikely its an instrument issue. As we already discussed its most likely an urban heat issue. Everywhere I go in Buffalo there is construction. 

So let’s say that’s the case. It’s still an inaccurate reading based in outside variables. The only true way to monitor this is in a sunny day and a clear cool night. IF the theory is correct then the sensor will be surrounded by heat trapped near the concrete creating a false temperature climb. That skews the numbers in a a big way.

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7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

WU actually stores the PWS data by month, downloaded into a spreadsheet pretty easy and added some color... now that stands out!  These are the daily MIN TEMPS at the closest sites to KBUF (<3miles away).  KBUF isnt the warmest low every day, but on average it is.  One fluke day it was coldest due to PM storms and our low for the day coming at 1159pm.  Thing I notice is that on the average days KBUF isn't just a little warmer its like 2-3 full degrees warmers than the other nearby sites.  IMO something is likely causing the "overnight low" TEMP to be inflated on a regular basis in comparison to all of these neighboring sites.

 

Thoughts?

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Did you send this data to KBUF? If not I was going to send tonight. 

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Proper placement of weather instruments according to wunderground and the NWS..

The most common error in installing a weather station is associated with misplacing the thermometer sensor. Meteorologists define temperature as the temperature in shade with plenty of ventilation. When placing your weather staion, make sure:

  • The thermometer sensor never receives direct sunlight.
  • The thermometer receives plenty of ventilation and is not blocked from the wind.
  • If the thermometer is placed on a roof-top, make sure it is at least 5 feet above the roof-top.
  • If the thermometer is placed above grass, again, it should be at least 5 feet above the grass surface.
  • The thermometer is at least 50 feet from the nearest paved surface.

Suggestion - use a radiation shield for your thermometer. This way, your weather station can be placed in direct sunlight, with the thermometer located inside the radiation shield.

Screenshot_20210921-095751.png

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32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you send this data to KBUF? If not I was going to send tonight. 

I'm going to send this afternoon.  Now that I have all the PWS data downloaded into a workbook Im having some fun cutting the data different ways.  One last thing I wanted to look at was to dig into the hourly data a little more for the morning time and see when KBUF isn't making the same dip as the other stations.  Here I ran the HIGH temp vs LOW temp.  KBUF is right in the middle when it comes to the high temp aspect, so not a sensor issue.  The disparity it temps is just coming during the overnight / early morning low hours. 

 

Just a side note I would probably pull the Willi79 station data from the set as it likely has a bad sensor or placement as it is showing as the warmest daytime station and the coldest nighttime station which is a bit unlikely.    HIGHTEMPS.thumb.png.38a84a04651136b7d3b6b5f1c4c35a14.png

LOWTEMPS.png

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OSU says he doesn't see how UHI explains that, all those other locations have asphalt and concrete too. 

It seems like the amount of concrete directly surrounding the ASOS at the airport is certainly much more than a neighborhood where trees and grass are interspersed all over, I mean just look at this picture.  Which area is WAY different than the others??...hmmmm, seems pretty obvious to me.  The trees also do an amazing job of shadowing concrete at points during the day while the airport just bakes from sunup to sundown.

I also wonder if the thermal mass of the runways and parking lots create better mixing that prevents the atmosphere from decoupling as effectively directly around the airport during the nighttime hours. 

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21 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Our winters are definitely warming. Pretty crazy how the midwest has actually gone down in average temps Dec-Feb. Look at the scale, its nothing too extreme, but again this is only 18 year scale. It takes decades for the warm to really be felt. 

*It's vs the 1981-2010 longterm average so makes it seem less worse than it actual is. If it was vs the longterm average it would likely be more dramatic. 

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Makes me wonder how many new parking lots have been built near official stations. That could easily be a contributing factor as to why temps (especially in the winter) are warmer over the past 20 years.

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5 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Makes me wonder how many new parking lots have been built near official stations. That could easily be a contributing factor as to why temps (especially in the winter) are warmer over the past 20 years.

This is always my go to point to exonerate local effects.  I don't think there are many parking lots in the arctic...

 

ArcticSeaIceMinimumCoverage.jpg

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