Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[wolfie09]

CPC is always warm lol They had this week warm as well..They have the next 12 months warm, litterly lol

In reality it's mostly overnights skewing the mean..NWS D6/7 has low 60s for highs and around 50 for a low.. Average is 62l42 at that time..

 

 

D7/8 GFS Afternoon vs morning

[BuffaloWeather]

Well we’ve been above normal every month this year except feb, may and July. So cpc Is doing okay. The departures have been substantial in the above average month's. The below average months have been right in the -0 to -1

[wolfie09]

This frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary east of Lake
Ontario Saturday Night, with increasing chances for rain showers.
Additionally a shortwave from the west will bring chances for rain
showers towards WNY later Saturday Night. Instability will be
minimal, and will not include any thunder within the forecast.

The increased cloud cover for Saturday Night will promote
temperatures several degrees warmer than Friday Night, with
overnight lows Saturday Night in the lower 50s well inland, to
around 60 near the lakeshore.

Model consensus diverges heading into the first part of the new
week. GFS continues with the dry weather owed to high pressure
remaining in control. The Canadian shows ridging building back in
from the north, pushing the boundary back to the south of the area,
drying things out for the most part. Meanwhile the Euro stalls the
boundary over our region keeping showers in the forecast right
through the end of the period. With all of this in mind, SChc PoPs
will be in place across the majority of the area due the degree of
uncertainty amongst model guidance, with the feeling that better
chances will exist across the western Southern Tier and lesser
chances east of Lake Ontario at this time.

Daytime highs will average in the 60s each day, while overnight lows
average from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region.

[wolfie09]

Surprised no pops for Monday..

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 62.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

[BuffaloWeather]

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         69   2:23 PM  
  MINIMUM         46   6:32 AM      
  AVERAGE         58    

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The highlighted isn't odd, we've been pretty warm this month. What were the low temps in the surrounding stations last night? KBUF hit the low between 5 and 6 am

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html

So this is were it gets strange... All the stations hit their minimum temp between 5am and 7am.  KBUF actually was somewhat in line with the other stations at that time frame only 1.5-2.0 degrees above the average station temp.  The larger variance appears to have been experienced earlier in the overnight as KBUF was running far and away warmer (5-6 degree range) for several hours.  This is the same large variance we saw earlier in the night too between 9pm and 11pm.  I think this would support more of the UHI theory over a sensor as the trapped heat would slowly lose its grip as the night went along.  Interesting note here... KBUF didn't drop below 50 until after 2 am, while all other stations were below 50 by midnight.      

[vortmax]

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So this is were it gets strange... All the stations hit their minimum temp between 5am and 7am.  KBUF actually was somewhat in line with the other stations at that time frame only 1.5-2.0 degrees above the average station temp.  The larger variance appears to have been experienced earlier in the overnight as KBUF was running far and away warmer (5-6 degree range) for several hours.  This is the same large variance we saw earlier in the night too between 9pm and 11pm.  I think this would support more of the UHI theory over a sensor as the trapped heat would slowly lose its grip as the night went along.  Interesting note here... KBUF didn't drop below 50 until after 2 am, while all other stations were below 50 by midnight.      

For that UHI effect, maybe check the wind direction. Was it pushing that warmer air from over the parking lot to the sensor? 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Now tonight KBUF seems perfectly in line when I checked on it.  There is a small warm pocket to the south west of the airport with a sharp cutoff to cooler temps to the north.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

5 hours ago, vortmax said:

For that UHI effect, maybe check the wind direction. Was it pushing that warmer air from over the parking lot to the sensor? 

Virtually no wind last night.  Sensor is smack dab in the middle of the airport 

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Virtually no wind last night.  Sensor is smack dab in the middle of the airport 

My question is how is UB (a mesonet run reading) almost 8 degrees colder than the airport right now? I guess I’d like to know if this is an acceptable reading as it is monitored by the U of Albany. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

45 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

My question is how is UB (a mesonet run reading) almost 8 degrees colder than the airport right now? I guess I’d like to know if this is an acceptable reading as it is monitored by the U of Albany. 

This was 6pm last night to 8am this morning.  KBUF has a huge 5-6 degree departure from maximum for several hours overnight.  It does start and end the night somewhat in line with the other stations (within 1.5 degree max variance) but not sure what hangs it up from 9pm - 3am?

So far tonight KBUF has been reporting in line with nearby stations.  TS see my post above, there is a small pocket of warmer air sitting over Cheektowaga area and airport.  Several stations were reporting a bit warmer.  Closer to UB area is colder.  11pm readings had a bit more of a variance but still small compared to yesterday.  What's different tonight from last night that could have caused this lag???    

[BuffaloWeather]

26 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This was 6pm last night to 8am this morning.  KBUF has a huge 5-6 degree departure from maximum for several hours overnight.  It does start and end the night somewhat in line with the other stations (within 1.5 degree max variance) but not sure what hangs it up from 9pm - 3am?

So far tonight KBUF has been reporting in line with nearby stations.  TS see my post above, there is a small pocket of warmer air sitting over Cheektowaga area and airport.  Several stations were reporting a bit warmer.  Closer to UB area is colder.  11pm readings had a bit more of a variance but still small compared to yesterday.  What's different tonight from last night that could have caused this lag???    

Maybe they fixed it today after the tweet?

[Syrmax]

8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe they fixed it today after the tweet?

Yup 

[Revracer800]

This is truly a fall day. Mid 50's for a temp and lake effect rain falling on and off most of the morning so far. Love it lol. 

[wolfie09]

Sunday and Sunday night, forecast is trending wetter areawide as
shortwave energy and a potential weak sfc low approaches the Lower
Lakes. Have again nudges POPs up areawide with the best chance for
precipitation likely occuring Sunday afternoon and then
continuing into Sunday night.

Chances for showers will slowly wane heading toward the middle of
the week. Exactly how long it takes for this to occur is the
question. There are still some timing differences amongst model
guidance, however the overall consensus trends toward the surface
boundary eventually getting shoved south of the area as Canadian
high pressure tries to build across the region. Depending on when
this process takes place will determine when we finally start to dry
things out a bit around here

 

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Sunday and Sunday night, forecast is trending wetter areawide as
shortwave energy and a potential weak sfc low approaches the Lower
Lakes. Have again nudges POPs up areawide with the best chance for
precipitation likely occuring Sunday afternoon and then
continuing into Sunday night.

Chances for showers will slowly wane heading toward the middle of
the week. Exactly how long it takes for this to occur is the
question. There are still some timing differences amongst model
guidance, however the overall consensus trends toward the surface
boundary eventually getting shoved south of the area as Canadian
high pressure tries to build across the region. Depending on when
this process takes place will determine when we finally start to dry
things out a bit around here

 

Really hope it holds off for bills game got tickets. I bought the tickets a few days ago when KBUF forecast was 68 and sunny for Sunday. I really need to look at the models instead of trusting them, they suck. 

[vortmax]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Really hope it holds off for bills game got tickets. I bought the tickets a few days ago when KBUF forecast was 68 and sunny for Sunday. I really need to look at the models instead of trusting them, they suck. 

 Yes, apparently the EC won as it was showing the boundary hanging around. Dang, I was gonna go solo camping for a few days Sat-Wed. Might have to hold off. 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, vortmax said:

 Yes, apparently the EC won as it was showing the boundary hanging around. Dang, I was gonna go solo camping for a few days Sat-Wed. Might have to hold off. 

Only hope is it starts raining after the game Sunday, there is a chance its more sporadic earlier in the day. Where are you going camping? 

[wolfie09]

Take it with a tablespoon of salt..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Take it with a tablespoon of salt..

 

These maps make sense. I think slightly warmer than average winter with above normal snow. Looks like a weak La Nina map. Where them clippers at?

[wolfie09]

Closer to the Great Lakes, the big story this winter will be lake-effect snow.

“Lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes --- look out,” Pastelok warned. “If it all does come together, we could have a pretty busy season as far as lake-effect snow [goes] for all of the Great Lakes.”

The first rounds of lake-effect snow are likely to start in late November and into December, but the pattern that meteorologists often refer to as "the lake-effect snow machine" will kick into high gear as the calendar turns to 2022.

One reason the worst of the lake-effect snow is expected to hold off until January is the state of the Great Lakes heading into the season. The water temperatures in all five lakes as of late September were above normal. Water temperatures were about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, about 2.5 F above normal in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, and 5 F above normal in Lake Superior, according to NOAA Coast Watch.

As of late September, some of the warmest waters in the Great Lakes were concentrated in Lake Erie, where readings at stations on the coast of Cleveland and Buffalo topped 67 degrees. In the southern parts of Lake Michigan, near Chicago, water temperatures remained above 60 degrees at the end of September.

With only intermittent intrusions of cold air before a persistent flow of Arctic air in January, the lakes will remain open for business well into winter.

Buffalo, New York, is predicted to measure around 100 inches of snow this winter, slightly above the average of 95 inches and noticeably above last season, during which the city measured a total of 77 inches.

Farther west, the bigger story will be the unrelenting waves of cold air.

“If you live in the northern Plains and Great Lakes, I think you really have to pay attention to the cold shots that come down," Pastelok said referring to Arctic air blasting down from Canada.

Temperatures in January could end up being 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit lower than they were last winter across the Plains -- and the Arctic air is likely to remain in place over the region into February.

[BuffaloWeather]

28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Closer to the Great Lakes, the big story this winter will be lake-effect snow.

“Lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes --- look out,” Pastelok warned. “If it all does come together, we could have a pretty busy season as far as lake-effect snow [goes] for all of the Great Lakes.”

The first rounds of lake-effect snow are likely to start in late November and into December, but the pattern that meteorologists often refer to as "the lake-effect snow machine" will kick into high gear as the calendar turns to 2022.

One reason the worst of the lake-effect snow is expected to hold off until January is the state of the Great Lakes heading into the season. The water temperatures in all five lakes as of late September were above normal. Water temperatures were about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, about 2.5 F above normal in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, and 5 F above normal in Lake Superior, according to NOAA Coast Watch.

As of late September, some of the warmest waters in the Great Lakes were concentrated in Lake Erie, where readings at stations on the coast of Cleveland and Buffalo topped 67 degrees. In the southern parts of Lake Michigan, near Chicago, water temperatures remained above 60 degrees at the end of September.

With only intermittent intrusions of cold air before a persistent flow of Arctic air in January, the lakes will remain open for business well into winter.

Buffalo, New York, is predicted to measure around 100 inches of snow this winter, slightly above the average of 95 inches and noticeably above last season, during which the city measured a total of 77 inches.

Farther west, the bigger story will be the unrelenting waves of cold air.

“If you live in the northern Plains and Great Lakes, I think you really have to pay attention to the cold shots that come down," Pastelok said referring to Arctic air blasting down from Canada.

Temperatures in January could end up being 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit lower than they were last winter across the Plains -- and the Arctic air is likely to remain in place over the region into February.

With a normal Nina you would get an early lake effect season on average. Late Nov-Mid January should be the typical time to get a bunch of events. 

[vortmax]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Only hope is it starts raining after the game Sunday, there is a chance its more sporadic earlier in the day. Where are you going camping? 

Just south of Naples.

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

These maps make sense. I think slightly warmer than average winter with above normal snow. Looks like a weak La Nina map. Where them clippers at?

That looks like a very fun track for possible East Coast storms. It's been quite some time since we've seen those OR Alberta Clippers.

40 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Just south of Naples.

My wife and I stayed at an Air BnB just outside Naples. Beautiful area. We loved it. The Grape pies though? Not so much.... lol. Sorry, native Finger Lakers..we were not fans. haha

[BuffaloWeather]

Hoping the NAM is correct for Sunday

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM holds off the worst until later afternoon

[BuffaloWeather]

Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night will be the better chances for
rain showers as a surface boundary begins to form just to the south
of Lake Ontario, and isentropic lift increases. The deep moisture
within now diffluent flow aloft will likely bring widespread rain to
our entire region. Will have categorical PoPs across WNY...and to
the east where diffluent flow will be weaker...just likely PoPs.
Upward to a half an inch or more of rain is possible within
prolonged rain and drizzle later Sunday afternoon and through the
overnight time period.

[wolfie09]

12z euro looks like it came in north with the LP system..End result is heavier rains in the north country, we all still see some rain Sunday/Monday..

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

12z euro looks like it came in north with the LP system..End result is heavier rains in the north country, we all still see some rain Sunday/Monday..

The one time I hope we dry slot. Keep me updated wolf. 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

12z euro looks like it came in north with the LP system..End result is heavier rains in the north country, we all still see some rain Sunday/Monday..

Oh, gosh...that track...gives me nightmares of pretty much every winter that I've lived here....