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Fall 2021 Thread (September, October, November)


Carvers Gap
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Here's the Ensembles for Day 15. Warmer risks would be -GLAMM otherwise cold could happen. 

image.thumb.png.4aa3adf4963f35ed763c1baa6050020c.png

Welcome to the Cynical South @Blue Moon but I thought you're from here. As you know if it could snow in the South, still forecast rain. In Oswego NY, it's just the opposite. If it could snow in Upstate NY it will.

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Man, it feels like winter out there.  And the ensembles do not look warm after d10.  Monster ridge going up right along the West Coast.  Give it a few more runs, and I might be read to say that winter is about to begin north of I40 during the second half of November.  Now, that doesn't mean snow necessarily, but it does mean we are about to flip cold.  

@Blue Moon, were you in this area for a time?

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We might be able to get that to work courtesy of the ABNA however the wavelength is a little squirrelly like you note. 

This is the European weekly composite of weeks 5-6. Historically those weeks offer zero forecast value but it's fun to look! It's not far from the coldest group of historical years. Again, just garbage. Should I move this to banter? There is the China tie-in so will put it here. 

image.png.dadf6309245a08c86f45787e75c2d5b7.png

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

We might be able to get that to work courtesy of the ABNA however the wavelength is a little squirrelly like you note. 

This is the European weekly composite of weeks 5-6. Historically those weeks offer zero forecast value but it's fun to look! It's not far from the coldest group of historical years. Again, just garbage. Should I move this to banter? There is the China tie-in so will put it here. 

image.png.dadf6309245a08c86f45787e75c2d5b7.png

Hi Jeff. My concern is if we dont get cold with shorter wavelengths, it may be tougher to get cold with longer wavelengths in winter. Is that a possibility or what do you think?

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14 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Here's the Ensembles for Day 15. Warmer risks would be -GLAMM otherwise cold could happen. 

image.thumb.png.4aa3adf4963f35ed763c1baa6050020c.png

Welcome to the Cynical South @Blue Moon but I thought you're from here. As you know if it could snow in the South, still forecast rain. In Oswego NY, it's just the opposite. If it could snow in Upstate NY it will.

Yes sir, I am from Middle Tennessee and recently moved up here. You know I'll always be rooting for anywhere in Tennessee to get snow. Happy there's a chance on the board for the first week of November!

ETA: @Carvers Gap Yes, I used to live in Middle TN just outside of Nashville. I also lived in Knoxville for a few years.

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Way, way out there but the 12z Euro ensembles show a very cold pattern at 500.  Source region might be lacking at first, but if that holds....it could tap some really cold air from over the top.  We have seen this several times during the past few years as a head fake, so I am holding my fire.  However, I like what I see from this far out.  

That is a cold look Fountain!

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Cold returning after the mild interlude next week really would not surprise me. See if we can book a BN average for November.

ECMWF monthlies came out today. First look, I grunted winter canceled after December. Chart is seasonable Dec.

January and February composites are mild. However splitting into clusters, it's actually fairly close to 50/50 each month. There's a warm cluster; and both months, there's a pretty good cold cluster. In other words it's TBD.

If November can end cold going into December, it could hold for a few more weeks until the first January thaw. Though not every year, a cold November is a bullish correlation for winter.

If we come back Monday to a mild forecast and November crap-out, I'll sign off until March, lol!

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11 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Cold returning after the mild interlude next week really would not surprise me. See if we can book a BN average for November.

ECMWF monthlies came out today. First look, I grunted winter canceled after December. Chart is seasonable Dec.

January and February composites are mild. However splitting into clusters, it's actually fairly close to 50/50 each month. There's a warm cluster; and both months, there's a pretty good cold cluster. In other words it's TBD.

If November can end cold going into December, it could hold for a few more weeks until the first January thaw. Though not every year, a cold November is a bullish correlation for winter.

If we come back Monday to a mild forecast and November crap-out, I'll sign off until March, lol!

Jeff, I will take your word on it lol. I'm thinking alot warmer winter this winter, even though last winter wasnt cold, outside of a week to two weeks in February. I just want to see one winter event in my area. 

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17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Way, way out there but the 12z Euro ensembles show a very cold pattern at 500.  Source region might be lacking at first, but if that holds....it could tap some really cold air from over the top.  We have seen this several times during the past few years as a head fake, so I am holding my fire.  However, I like what I see from this far out.  

That is a cold look Fountain!

LOL.  I have no idea what a cold look Fountain is(maybe spellcheck derived it from "forecast"???)....Probably should have said that is a cold portrayal by that model since model output is technically not a forecast.  

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  I have no idea what a cold look Fountain is(maybe spellcheck derived it from "forecast"???)....Probably should have said that is a cold portrayal by that model since model output is technically not a forecast.  

Them cold look fountains are the one's that just look like they'd just have to have cold water flowing out of them. Lol

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I'll be happy to meet you half way. Warmer than normal OK. Can we go AN severe weather too?

On 11/5/2021 at 4:57 PM, Mr. Kevin said:

Jeff, I will take your word on it lol. I'm thinking alot warmer winter this winter, even though last winter wasnt cold, outside of a week to two weeks in February. I just want to see one winter event in my area. 

Anyway weekend forecasts have turned colder in the 6-15 day with excellent agreement and some sub-seasonal support. Models themselves are nearly unanimous in the 6-10 day. The tight clusters in the 11-15 day are unusual, and welcome to cold fans.

Back to the sub-seasonal. Yukon ridges like to be stubborn this time of year, once re-established. Big MJO pulse about to come out of the Indian Ocean into the West Pacific. That's a cold 6-15 day signal!

If this verifies, November will average colder than normal. Correlation with balance of winter is good, but no promise. I would favor that cold balance early. First January thaw could end the party, but I'm getting ahead of reality. November is the primary objective. 

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However there's a disturbance in the Force. Invest in the Indian Ocean could disrupt the MJO cycle. That'd cause the cold to hang up in the Midwest above a suppressed SER.

Otherwise the moderate La Nina should promote cold intrusions into the South eventually. If the MJO pulse survives the Indian Ocean shenanigans, the cold may be sooner rather than later.

Finally, a persistent -WPO is forecast. In past La Ninas with -WPO November cold did kind of hang up; however, Decembers were very cold into the Southeast. Something to watch.

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10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

However there's a disturbance in the Force. Invest in the Indian Ocean could disrupt the MJO cycle. That'd cause the cold to hang up in the Midwest above a suppressed SER.

Otherwise the moderate La Nina should promote cold intrusions into the South eventually. If the MJO pulse survives the Indian Ocean shenanigans, the cold may be sooner rather than later.

Finally, a persistent -WPO is forecast. In past La Ninas with -WPO November cold did kind of hang up; however, Decembers were very cold into the Southeast. Something to watch.

Jeff, I thought the mjo was supposed to be going into 4 5 and 6 but maybe not now. Or delayed but not denied? I'm not sure. Hopefully the mjo will be moving soon

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Leaning towards an ensemble head fake this AM regarding the return to cold after this weekend's amplification.  Lots of modeling(too lazy to name them all) are beginning to show BN heights over Alaska with fading BN heights here.  BN heights over Alaska generally teleconnect to a warm SE.  The Euro Weeklies eventually re-drop the hammer during December in regards to cold here.  Message today....cold this weekend, more moderation than was shown last week both in terms of warmer temps and duration, and still cold for the middle part of December.  Again, this is shoulder season so things will be all over the place.  Jeff's comments above pretty much explain what is driving the change.  The IO has been an absolute thorn for several years...I don't see this winter being any different.  Huge grains of salt though.  Models probably are not done bouncing around.  November can be an incredibly difficult month to model as cold/warm pools(new cold pools/diminishing warmth) are moving thousands of miles from their summer latitudinal norms.  Wavelengths are changing.   This is dice stuff.  At least this time, we kind of know that really cold looks past d8 often verify -----but just not in the place where originally modeled.  

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Looks like SER all winter. Just kidding! Joe Bastardi mentions 1989 and 2000 Decembers. He has not been right about anything in years.

Yeah November looks really choppy as Carvers writes just above. I concur. 

That pattern with Bering Sea ridging allows AK to go BN heights November, mild here. However past La Nina years that pattern November have evolved into a colder Southeast US solution by December. Just not Joe B cold, lol!

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4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks like SER all winter. Just kidding! Joe Bastardi mentions 1989 and 2000 Decembers. He has not been right about anything in years.

Yeah November looks really choppy as Carvers writes just above. I concur. 

That pattern with Bering Sea ridging allows AK to go BN heights November, mild here. However past La Nina years that pattern November have evolved into a colder Southeast US solution by December. Just not Joe B cold, lol!

Yeah im hoping November sets the pattern going into winter.  I wouldn't mind choppy as long as we get chances. 

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10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks like SER all winter. Just kidding! Joe Bastardi mentions 1989 and 2000 Decembers. He has not been right about anything in years.

Yeah November looks really choppy as Carvers writes just above. I concur. 

That pattern with Bering Sea ridging allows AK to go BN heights November, mild here. However past La Nina years that pattern November have evolved into a colder Southeast US solution by December. Just not Joe B cold, lol!

Jeff, I think maybe the mjo isnt moving or alot slower than anticipated. Hopefully at some point this late fall or winter we can have one winter storm. Its always difficult in the south even in the best of patterns in 

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Euro and GFS gave us a nice thanksgiving week present overnight.

0z Euro

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611419f98ef3671287e02

 

6z GFS:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ef97005979b23ea836

 

At this much of a time remove, probably not a lot to get excited about, but there were a couple ensemble hits later in Thanksgiving week. 

 

MJO convection looks pretty dispersed to me:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611505f3e2a20289eb13d

 

Looks like the RMMs have it in the COD.  I could be wishcasting, but I don't think I remember seeing that much convection in the equatorial region of the N. hemisphere that far east, on the Himawari 8 satellite. 

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The MJO indeed stalled last week per looking at the historical index and also satellite movies.

On 11/10/2021 at 7:51 PM, Mr. Kevin said:

Jeff, I think maybe the mjo isnt moving or alot slower than anticipated. Hopefully at some point this late fall or winter we can have one winter storm. Its always difficult in the south even in the best of patterns in 

We have another Invest in the IO which could throw yet another wrench. However - key difference - is that convection is already in the West Pac. No surprise models have turned colder for the 6-15 day.

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Man, that is a monster block over Greenland showing up on both the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS for the end of November - monster.  Euro Weeklies have it as well.  Weeklies are back to a cold look until late December when winter shifts back out West.  Huge grains of salt, folks.  I do think the blocking signal has merit.  The Euro picked up on this last week.  It has been really windy during the past week.  I usually notice this during the fall when their are nearly opposite air masses near each other - Captain Obvious I know.  That said, this means that we are not likely going to be in a zonal patter for long periods of time.  If we want cold, we don't want universally meh air masses UMAM.  My term.

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