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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Friday's low was 35 and yesterday's was a chillier 31, with the Friday high at 47 and yesterday's high 46. 

This morning was a bit surprising with some early fog and/or stratus (although with the temp/dp what they were and no wind between about 3 am - 5 am, I can see why)... but that has since lifted with a few puffs of wind. It's currently clear and and 37 with dp 36.

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45 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

These are essentially a blend of the thoughts I posted a week or 2 ago. Below avg snowfall, slow start, TPV anchored over the N Pole, and variability. We are going to get bored with mid/upper 40s to low 50s for stretches then get a few of those days where we struggle to get out of the teens. I do think our cold spells come via blocking not necessarily related to any SSWE. A bigger storm (deeper cyclone) threat is more likely this winter based on several factors, one of which is Nina potentially staying weak/mod but quickly moving to neutral or even weak Nino by late winter. Slow start, moderate middle, higher variability late. 

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Something really interesting I wanted to share... the October 2021 averaged PDO index value came out to -2.55. In the entire PDO historical data set dating back to 1900, that's the most negative it's ever been since 1961. In fact, in the entire data set which takes monthly values, there's only ever been around 9 months across the past 121 years that have had a lower negative PDO value. That means 9 out of 1,450 months

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Mixed signals for the winter is how I see it. It's been dry since the hurricane flood in early September that's not good. But it's a cold November and that pattern is really locked in going forward into December with cold delivery from Canada. Analogs for warm October - cold November have led to good winters.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, RedSky said:

12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. 

 

 

Looks like a clipper redevelopment deal, those are notoriously hard to nail down this far out. CMC has something similar just further north as the clipper doesn't dig as far south as the Euro. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Even if we can score a 1-3" type deal with just the clipper, that'd be a nice score before December. 

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Ended up with a high of 52 yesterday and low of 47 - but my 51 high today came just after midnight as one front was about to come through, so the low is the current. The rain was a bit stingy (a line from last night basically evaporated as it approached) but I did get 0.10" this morning.  Once the 2nd front came through, it sucked the moisture out of the atmosphere quite quickly.  Did have stratocumulus obscuring the sun much of the day, although there were some breaks of sun.

Currently 40 with a dp of 25.

MJO Phase (90 days) FWIW -

 

obs_phase90_full-11222021.gif

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8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Mixed signals for the winter is how I see it. It's been dry since the hurricane flood in early September that's not good. But it's a cold November and that pattern is really locked in going forward into December with cold delivery from Canada. Analogs for warm October - cold November have led to good winters.

 

 

If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that.

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12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that.

I don't know, that pattern looks like it could very easily flip into a +NAO/-EPO regime by mid month which wouldn't be as bad. No use extrapolating that far out when we're seeing such big changes every 24 hours though in the long range.  If we do get skunked in Dec though, historically speaking, that's usually a death knell for winter around here in a nina. Almost every single nina that featured a skunked december is a ratter. 

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Beautiful day across the area albeit a bit chillier than normal. Of note this morning's low of 28.6 here in East Nantmeal was our coldest since the 26.3 back on April 3rd. The 30.2 in Sea Isle City NJ was the coldest and only the 2nd below freezing low this season. The 1st was last Saturday at exactly 32 degrees. Happy Holiday week to all!!

Backyard.20211123_110954580.jpg

SICHi.20211123_111004030.jpg

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