Hurricane Agnes Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Hot damn! That front pushed the clouds and rain away and left a perfectly star-filled and moon-lit sky with the eclipse perfectly visible this morning! Yes the current temp is 40 (with dp a low 26) but was out there checking it out (between ~4:45 am - 5:15 am). ETA @6:42 am - from Mt. Holly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Viewing was perfect and the location among the major constellations made it the best lunar eclipse I have seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 One background state I've noticed for several weeks is the beat down/lack of any SER. One would think thats a better sign than a full lat pig SE ridge that we are fighting early in the season. Lets see when the Midwest starts accumulating snow. Thats a good indicator for us as the pattern steps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Overnight low of 27 here. Current temp 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Friday's low was 35 and yesterday's was a chillier 31, with the Friday high at 47 and yesterday's high 46. This morning was a bit surprising with some early fog and/or stratus (although with the temp/dp what they were and no wind between about 3 am - 5 am, I can see why)... but that has since lifted with a few puffs of wind. It's currently clear and and 37 with dp 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Three days ago I was certain the weekend cold doomed the remaining insect population. Nope. One yellow jacket and....and my dragonfly returned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Three days ago I was certain the weekend cold doomed the remaining insect population. Nope. One yellow jacket and....and my dragonfly returned Stink bugs and cucumber beetles/weevils still all over my jawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Kathy Orr/FOX29 winter outlook... https://www.fox29.com/video/1004628 Cecily/6abc winter outlook https://6abc.com/winter-weather-forecast-2021-cecily-tynan-adam-joseph-snow-philly/11248186/ 43F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 45 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Kathy Orr/FOX29 winter outlook... https://www.fox29.com/video/1004628 Cecily/6abc winter outlook https://6abc.com/winter-weather-forecast-2021-cecily-tynan-adam-joseph-snow-philly/11248186/ 43F These are essentially a blend of the thoughts I posted a week or 2 ago. Below avg snowfall, slow start, TPV anchored over the N Pole, and variability. We are going to get bored with mid/upper 40s to low 50s for stretches then get a few of those days where we struggle to get out of the teens. I do think our cold spells come via blocking not necessarily related to any SSWE. A bigger storm (deeper cyclone) threat is more likely this winter based on several factors, one of which is Nina potentially staying weak/mod but quickly moving to neutral or even weak Nino by late winter. Slow start, moderate middle, higher variability late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:38 PM, KamuSnow said: I should probably let it go, but what was your actual high? 69? Hi Kamu - 69.2 to be precise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Something really interesting I wanted to share... the October 2021 averaged PDO index value came out to -2.55. In the entire PDO historical data set dating back to 1900, that's the most negative it's ever been since 1961. In fact, in the entire data set which takes monthly values, there's only ever been around 9 months across the past 121 years that have had a lower negative PDO value. That means 9 out of 1,450 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Mixed signals for the winter is how I see it. It's been dry since the hurricane flood in early September that's not good. But it's a cold November and that pattern is really locked in going forward into December with cold delivery from Canada. Analogs for warm October - cold November have led to good winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 There was a bee in my car today. 47F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. Looks like a clipper redevelopment deal, those are notoriously hard to nail down this far out. CMC has something similar just further north as the clipper doesn't dig as far south as the Euro. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Even if we can score a 1-3" type deal with just the clipper, that'd be a nice score before December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. Yea that was a close call, could be the euro over developing systems, but we'll see...any support for this on the individuals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Looks increasingly likely we will finish with below normal temps for November - this would be the 7th below normal November in the last 10 years here in NW Chesco. However, maybe a nice warm up to start December?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Ended up with a high of 52 yesterday and low of 47 - but my 51 high today came just after midnight as one front was about to come through, so the low is the current. The rain was a bit stingy (a line from last night basically evaporated as it approached) but I did get 0.10" this morning. Once the 2nd front came through, it sucked the moisture out of the atmosphere quite quickly. Did have stratocumulus obscuring the sun much of the day, although there were some breaks of sun. Currently 40 with a dp of 25. MJO Phase (90 days) FWIW - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 hours ago, RedSky said: Mixed signals for the winter is how I see it. It's been dry since the hurricane flood in early September that's not good. But it's a cold November and that pattern is really locked in going forward into December with cold delivery from Canada. Analogs for warm October - cold November have led to good winters. If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that. I don't know, that pattern looks like it could very easily flip into a +NAO/-EPO regime by mid month which wouldn't be as bad. No use extrapolating that far out when we're seeing such big changes every 24 hours though in the long range. If we do get skunked in Dec though, historically speaking, that's usually a death knell for winter around here in a nina. Almost every single nina that featured a skunked december is a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Beautiful day across the area albeit a bit chillier than normal. Of note this morning's low of 28.6 here in East Nantmeal was our coldest since the 26.3 back on April 3rd. The 30.2 in Sea Isle City NJ was the coldest and only the 2nd below freezing low this season. The 1st was last Saturday at exactly 32 degrees. Happy Holiday week to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 It's friggin cold outside for November I find it interesting how this cold is far over performing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 38F at noon. No bees in sight but the squirrels must have found a bag of coke...racing around like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12z euro for sunday, first clown maps of the season, gotta love it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z euro for sunday, first clown maps of the season, gotta love it! Only 5 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 I want to say Lucy is holding the first football but it has no support therefore not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I want to say Lucy is holding the first football but it has no support therefore not yet Cmc and ukie for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc and ukie for SNE Were not merged yet dude so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Were not merged yet dude so.. I post in every subforum. I'm like shit all over. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Flurries and 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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