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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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10 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I have a pet rock courtesy of Charlie's halloween ventures. It helped me through some rough times and hopefully will continue through Winter. Doctor thinks I'm crazy. I told him come to this site w/a winter storm pending and follow a 00z Euro thread to see some really crazy individuals. Bridge jumping, blow torch photos, people hallucinated seeing snow, bright snow lights, people artificially making snow, upside down rulers for greater snow depth and all... 

36F as of 3am

 

My personal favorite is dark greens and yellows overtop my region for hours resulting in ground truth observations of light snow .25"hr rates, while the light greens in other regions report 2" an hour. 

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Low this morning was 43 and it's currently sunny and 60 with dp 44.

Just seeing this new WPC product change for flood potential -

I suppose it makes it easier to deal with although I always interpreted a Flash Flood Watch as a sudden, short duration event vs a Flood Watch as something that could go on for some time (although they apparently still plan to use the FF Watch for certain circumstances).

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Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. 

I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow). 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. 

I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow). 

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

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22 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

Last February was cold with 30-40" snow and New England like snow depth so..

 

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 

What's the last +12"+ December event in Philly? I feel a solid 4-8, 6-10 classic Dec 5 event this year

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Had a low of 48 this morning but didn't hit 70 today - "only" 65 but it was still a pleasant fall day.

Currently 50 with dp 44.

CPC was calling for an above average temp and equal chances precip winter due to La Nina -

winteroutlook_seasonal_temperature_2021_

winteroutlook_seasonal_precipitation_202

I think it will depend on how strong (or weak) the La Nina becomes.  The chances for snow to rain are higher -

LaNina_winter_globe_updated_large_0.png

although last year's La Nina resulted in an above-normal amount of frozen precipitation in the CWA, but some of us had a couple events that were absolute sleetfests. :axe:

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So far this morning, all kinds of dry slots have opened up and I only started getting some rain about 5 am and then it sortof disappeared and then briefly returned and sortof went away. Currently have 0.26", with heavier bands to the west and east.  I just lifted and replanted a peony yesterday hoping to get it rained in so we'll see.

Since fronts are moving through (warm first and cold soon), my high so far just before the rain, was 63, with a low of 56 coming just after midnight.  Currently overcast, misty and 62, with dp the same. 

SPC SWDY1 did put the eastern part of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe -

 

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