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September 2021


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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

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8 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

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4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Vector disease ecologist here, and yeah NYC is definitely now in the subtropical category. The humid continental climate now begins just north of the city. This isn't anyone "re-defining" anything. Overnight low temperatures have increased dramatically. Our daytime highs is NOT where we have seen the most substantial increases. 

why is it so difficult to exterminate mosquitoes and drive them into extinction?  We find it so easy to drive desirable species to extinction why can't we actually make species we dont want to go extinct?

 

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1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

California is running out of water and the "record" crop yields are being destroyed, ask any farmer in the midwest, they are leaving the industry in droves.

 

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5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

I already know we're in a subtropical climate zone so I'm not even going to spend much time on this, here is a copy and paste of the first search result.

New York City, after years of being considered a humid continental climate, now sits within the humid subtropical climate zone. The classification requires that summers average above 72 degrees Fahrenheit — which New York's have had since 1927 — and for winter months to stay above 27 degrees Fahrenheit, on average.Jul 24, 2020
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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

#1…..89 days….2018

#2….77 days…..2019

#3….68 days…..2016

#4….64 days…..2021…2020
 

6EA49ED3-2D5E-445D-8BFF-28637F348E34.thumb.jpeg.ef41ab81ebc546ec5b3ed9d2959638cf.jpeg

 

Please help me create a black hole so we can suck up all this dirty humidity and send it to some other corner of the universe or another universe entirely.

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, December 2015 going +13 was the big reset month. Each El Niño since 2002-2003 has added new changes to our climate. You can look back and see new patterns of extremes following the 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 events. So each global temperature jump creates a new type of baseline for us.

so how do WE reset it back? It seems like we need to do some tinkering with ENSO, on a large scale if we can develop the technology to alter ocean currents we should be able to stop these large ENSO swings from happening.

 

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9 hours ago, binbisso said:

  true but conversely a 594dm  Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region

it's that accursed upper level low and all the clouds that are responsible for that.  It's unbearable enough with all this high humidity.

Someone help me nuke the Atlantic Ocean please

 

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our 2nd warmest mid-September on record.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21
Missing Count
1 2005-09-21 74.7 0
2 2021-09-21 72.0 0
3 2017-09-21 71.6 0
- 1998-09-21 71.6 0
4 2018-09-21 71.5 0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21
Missing Count
1 2005-09-21 77.9 0
2 2021-09-21 75.2 0
3 2017-09-21 74.1 0
- 1957-09-21 74.1 0
4 1998-09-21 73.9 0
5 2018-09-21 73.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21
Missing Count
1 2005-09-21 75.9 0
2 2021-09-21 73.4 0
3 1971-09-21 73.3 0
4 2017-09-21 73.0 0
5 2018-09-21 72.7 0

How come 1983 isn't on this list?

 

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7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills. 

3-5 inches in the Poconos and 1-3 inches around here?

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of cold air behind the cold front will still keep the September monthly minimums high. All our stations are currently near the warmest September minimums on record. Notice how stations like HPN and ISP haven’t fallen below 50° this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 59 9
2 1910 57 0
3 2015 56 0
- 1921 56 0
4 2018 54 0
- 2017 54 0
- 2016 54 0
- 2010 54 0
- 2002 54 0
- 1982 54 0
- 1960 54 0
- 1891 54 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 57 9
2 2015 54 0
3 2018 53 0
- 2002 53 0
- 1994 53 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 62 9
2 2010 59 0
3 2018 57 0
- 2016 57 0
4 2015 56 0
- 2012 56 0
- 2002 56 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 58 9
2 2015 56 0
3 2018 54 0
- 2017 54 0
- 2002 54 0
- 1994 54 0
- 1968 54 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 52 9
2 2018 51 0
3 2008 48 0
- 2002 48 0
- 1999 48 2
- 1968 48 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 54 9
2 2015 52 0
3 2018 51 0


 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 48 9
2 2018 44 0
3 2015 42 0


 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 48 10
2 1934 45 0
3 2018 44 0


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 55 9
2 2018 52 0
3 2017 50 0
- 2015 50 0
- 2002 50 0
- 1977 50 0


 

 

it wont be cold per se but it will be dry low humidity and overnight lows in the 50s which will feel chilly

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Heavier rain could arrive during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is likely tonight through Friday. A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. Parts of central Pennsylvania could see 3”-6” of rain.

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7 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

I lived on Sanibel for 3 years. Worked with boat captains and Meteorologists. Being from NY I was fascinated by the different weather down there. It was made clear to me that Florida had a Subtropical climate from just below the Tampa Bay area . North of there was not due to the  continental influence on the weather. I saw the difference especially in overnight lows . As far as the 70's, I still have the Time Magazine that was devoted to ”The next ice age cometh"?. It was very clear how NOAA and the scientific community we're leaning back then.

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The last 8 days of September are averaging 71degs.(64/78), or +5.

Month to date is  72.0[+1.3].         September could end near  71.7[+2.5].

73*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast.       75*(92%(RH) at 9am.          77*(87%RH) at Noon.        Reached 78* at 2pm.        Rain got here about 6pm.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today.  75-78, 1" to 2", s. wind to e. + gusty.

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

California is running out of water and the "record" crop yields are being destroyed, ask any farmer in the midwest, they are leaving the industry in droves.

 

Doesn't change the fact that with the longer growing season the planet is experiencing record high food production. And as far as where you live there are still months of bare trees and frozen ground  incapable of anything growing. That is not subtropical no matter how you spin it

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8 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics."

Pure tropical climates are those in the Caribbean where temps are stable all year round 80- 90 by day/ 70-80 at night. So basically people here are broad brushing subtropical to the point that you are equating our yearly climate to South Florida which is absurd. You want to say we are experiencing stretches of S FL humidity...Have at it. But they don't get a cold frontal passage from mid June till October. Not 1 cool, dry day the entire Summer

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Humid and front coming through today and into tomorrow making way for a third spectacular weekend and into early next week.  Next cold front comes through next week Wed 9/29.  By later next week eyes on what will be Hurricane Sam and the western Atlantic ridge building back and backing and bogging flow/traffic.  So we will likely see a progession

9/23-24  front rain

9/25 - 9/27: dry and splendid (mainy mid - upper 70s)

9/28 - 9/30 : front / bit cooler

10/1 - beyond: onshore / humid warm flow as Western Atl Ridge builds back west.

 

(what will likely be) Sam : around the southeast coast 9/30- 10/5(ish)

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it so difficult to exterminate mosquitoes and drive them into extinction?  We find it so easy to drive desirable species to extinction why can't we actually make species we dont want to go extinct?

 

It is difficult for a variety of reasons (not to mention a very bad idea). It is very difficult to target just a single type of insect. No matter how we do it, there are often non-target species that die off. In Florida they have released GMO mosquitos that will hopefully reduce the population. But more on the ecology side, we don’t want to make mosquitoes extinct. The larval stage feeds tons of amphibians and fish. They are quite beneficial to aquatic systems. We could work to control the larvae stage through fish, etc and many areas do this. You can stock a small pond with fish that will consume abundant larvae. The adult stage as well fed a variety of organisms. While we hate them, and believe me, I get bit aa ton, they are beneficial. Once disease starts spreading though, you Weill see health departments start spraying. NJ actually has one of the best mosquito programs in the country. 

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9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

are there any mosquito diseases that cause a sudden onset of frequent heart palpitations, asking for a friend

its possible my rock and roll lifestyle is about to kill me but it would be a lot funnier if my habit of taking long nature walks is why i die in my sleep next week

That doesn’t sound good! Heart palpitations can be stress induced, but there is also Lyme carditis (https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/treatment/lymecarditis.html) to be on the look out for. Ticks are definitely responsible for more disease in our latitude than mosquitoes. It could also be that rock and roll lifestyle haha. But getting outside is still one of the healthiest things we can do. 

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Endless summer pattern continues with another top 10 warmest month around the area through the 22nd.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22
Missing Count
1 1961-09-22 76.2 0
2 2005-09-22 75.9 0
3 2015-09-22 74.9 0
4 2016-09-22 74.5 0
- 1983-09-22 74.5 0
5 1971-09-22 74.2 0
6 2021-09-22 74.0 0
7 1980-09-22 73.8 0
8 2018-09-22 73.6 0
9 1989-09-22 73.5 0
- 1957-09-22 73.5 0
10 1947-09-22 73.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22
Missing Count
1 2015-09-22 72.3 0
2 2005-09-22 72.2 0
3 2018-09-22 71.8 0
- 1980-09-22 71.8 0
4 1983-09-22 71.5 0
5 2016-09-22 71.4 0
6 2021-09-22 70.9 0
7 1998-09-22 70.4 0
8 1971-09-22 70.3 0
9 2008-09-22 68.9 0
10 1996-09-22 68.8 0
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