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August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats


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There's a well-defined MCV/shortwave over western IA that the RAP has adequately analyzed. That will easily promote development across the area this afternoon. Seems like the 12Z models all have a similar evolution but with significant timing differences.
1066415362_ScreenShot2021-08-10at9_15_55AM.png.d5e911c3cb19cb05922223988c13ec56.png
 

You just beat me to it. Was just about to rag on the SPC (per usual) for saying there was no “overt” MCV.


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not understanding this portion of 1630Z update, they trimmed it yet says they expanded it....

 

Given the aforementioned possibilities of more than one storm cluster and the area of large to extreme CAPE, have expanded the higher damaging wind probabilities farther south into MO/IL

1630Z

day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif

 

Previous 1300Z

day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif.3b1dc687d738d8810515e3d91ffdb01e.gif

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14 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The HRRR is trash. Look at the spreads it’s cranking out. 97/67? Lol nah. 
 

Let’s try 91/78. Based on obs, that’s where we’re heading

I did not realize the HRRR was crashing the dewpoint this afternoon.  I wonder why it would do that.

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7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks like things percolating in iowa now

The MCV/wave is now evident in the DSM region on vis sat.

Have already had development on the southern flank well south of DSM, and now are seeing the real show getting going in NE IA, which should unzip down to I-80

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  • Hoosier changed the title to August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats

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