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Winter 2021-22


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On 7/6/2021 at 6:07 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Eh...I wouldn't say the dullest. Imo we are just in the middle enough to make things interesting, lol But when it comes to snow...I think it's just gonna be a tempering down of expectations from pre-2017...a lot of great hits kinda spoiled us!

I would  imagine the weather in most  of  Hawaii is rather dull. Death valley  not the  most exciting  place either.

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On 7/6/2021 at 6:07 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

think it's just gonna be a tempering down of expectations from pre-2017.

I don’t think there’s any rational basis for a statement like this. Emotional maybe. There were some lame winters in the early 70’s, seemingly all through the 80’s and the early 90’s. We had decent to good winters 2 of the last 3 years so I don’t think I’ll jump on the “it’s over forever” train just yet.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think there’s any rational basis for a statement like this. Emotional maybe. There were some lame winters in the early 70’s, seemingly all through the 80’s and the early 90’s. We had decent to good winters 2 of the last 3 years so I don’t think I’ll jump on the “it’s over forever” train just yet.

US didn't see a hurricane 11 years after Katrina. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think there’s any rational basis for a statement like this. Emotional maybe. There were some lame winters in the early 70’s, seemingly all through the 80’s and the early 90’s. We had decent to good winters 2 of the last 3 years so I don’t think I’ll jump on the “it’s over forever” train just yet.

I mean...a PAC jet dominated winter 3 (or is it 4?) years in a row doesn't warrant at least rational speculation? I mean it seems like we are in unknown territory here, does it not? Unless there was another time in our history where the dang PAC dominated several winters in a row? The lack of cold air source last winter despite the -AO/-NAO that typically gives us an above average winter? I don't know dude...And seeing as it's been almost 6 years since BWI saw a foot, or got too far above median, I'm really beginning to wonder. We haven't gone that long since the 70s. The 80s weren't quite like it...1983...2 footer...1987...above average. 5 year separation. We are working on 6 years...

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...a PAC jet dominated winter 3 (or is it 4?) years in a row doesn't warrant at least rational speculation? I mean it seems like we are in unknown territory here, does it not? Unless there was another time in our history where the dang PAC dominated several winters in a row? The lack of cold air source last winter despite the -AO/-NAO that typically gives us an above average winter? I don't know dude...And seeing as it's been almost 6 years since BWI saw a foot, or got too far above median, I'm really beginning to wonder. We haven't gone that long since the 70s. The 80s weren't quite like it...1983...2 footer...1987...above average. 5 year separation. We are working on 6 years...

Stop panicking lol.

This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Stop panicking lol.

This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.

That's what I mean. The "here" and "there" might be getting less frequent. Not so much panicking as weak resignation...5 years and counting since even sniffing over 5 inches. It did not used to be this way. I've looked at the winter from 1980 through now. I'm not sure we've ever gone this long without an area-wide footer coming in some point--at least not since the 70s. Really we can only manage 3-4 inches maximum in a storm in the corridor...whereas before..."now and then" was every 3-4 years. It has been almost 6. 

I'm gonna miss WSWs, truly....but median is just 2 inchers and 3 inchers...and that would be easier to accept IF we were still able to get a great winter every 3-4 years like we used to. That way it wouldn't be like now where it's like..."dang, it's been 5 years!"...was never like that in my brief lifetime. My concern is what used to be 3-4 times per decade may be even less--and that's assuming things aren't so broken that it can't happen, smh.

But again...scenery snows (the 1-4 inchers)...I'm learning to appreciate those too. Last winter was more appreciation of that mixed with some sadness missing what we used to be able to get more often (which wasn't "frequent" but never 6 years apart) But...hopefully I'm wrong and we get surprised!

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I mean. The "here" and "there" might be getting less frequent. Not so much panicking as weak resignation...5 years and counting since even sniffing over 5 inches. It did not used to be this way. I've looked at the winter from 1980 through now. I'm not sure we've ever gone this long without an area-wide footer coming in some point--at least not since the 70s. Really we can only manage 3-4 inches maximum in a storm in the corridor...whereas before..."now and then" was every 3-4 years. It has been almost 6. 

I'm gonna miss WSWs, truly....but median is just 2 inchers and 3 inchers...and that would be easier to accept IF we were still able to get a great winter every 3-4 years like we used to. That way it wouldn't be like now where it's like..."dang, it's been 5 years!"...was never like that in my brief lifetime. My concern is what used to be 3-4 times per decade may be even less--and that's assuming things aren't so broken that it can't happen, smh.

But again...scenery snows (the 1-4 inchers)...I'm learning to appreciate those too. Last winter was more appreciation of that mixed with some sadness missing what we used to be able to get more often (which wasn't "frequent" but never 6 years apart) But...hopefully I'm wrong and we get surprised!

Sounds like you’re trying to convince yourself. 

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5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Stop panicking lol.

This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.

I’ve never been as disinterested in an upcoming winter as I am at this point.

I took a break from weather altogether last year due to just being worn out by the pandemic, but I think this year takes the cake in regards to just not caring about a pending winter.

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@Maestrobjwa - It's important to remember that return periods are averages - they aren't always exact. I agree we do seem to be getting less frequent big snows - but it varies. You could go 2 or 3 years in a row with  HECS and then nothing for a decade - just as easily as you could go 6 without one and then just have one. It's not something that fits a mold every time.

If science worked that way, we'd probably be staring down the barrel of a Yellowstone eruption (on geologic timescales at least) - as some science indicates it can go off once every 600K years and hasn't in 640K. 

 

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21 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Western drought

9.png

6.png

7.png

Kinda interesting that you chose winters of 16-17, 19-20 which were not years with western drought (according to your first map) and did not include the winter of 12-13 or 18-19 which did follow a western drought.

I would say that I’m confused but I really am not. It’s pretty clear what you are doing.

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7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One thing that gets my hopes up this winter is we're coming out of a solar minimum and historically that has led to some really snowy winters!  1965-1966, 1986-1987, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010 (1977-1978 had lagged more following the minimum)

image.thumb.png.53d3c3ee083ba20cf4e1b70b398084ec.png

There's one problem with this...last winter was one year after the solar minimum. And lo and behold...we did indeed get our high lat blocking with the -AO/-NAO (isn't that what the whole theory with the minimum is about?) The problem is it didn't do any good!!

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18 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One thing that gets my hopes up this winter is we're coming out of a solar minimum and historically that has led to some really snowy winters!  1965-1966, 1986-1987, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010 (1977-1978 had lagged more following the minimum)

image.thumb.png.53d3c3ee083ba20cf4e1b70b398084ec.png

Yeah, that's a good point. I was wondering if the highest arctic ice melt Summer since 2010 so far (this year) would help us for the Winter. My feeling is something like 2018 is a good analog, leading to Winter 18-19. 

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