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Hurricane Elsa


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Being  july 01 and  moving at  28 mph and in the eastern carib i wouldnt  be surprised  if  it  opens  up and dies  out. Euro doesnt exactly  show  much before  it  gets to hispaniola

 

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OK...

  1. Toilet paper - check (From COVID panic)
  2. Water - check (Leftover from Irma in gallon jugs a little shrunken)
  3. Canned food - check (from many years of storms)
  4. Batteries - check (Every year, every season)
  5. Beer - Time to stock up! (Never enough)

image.thumb.png.378e96be686b2e8e0705503e4153ba4e.png

 

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Convection is trying to wrap upshear around the LLC. The mid-to-upper easterly flow might be starting to amplify now. We'll see if that can counter the high speed low level flow somewhat for less of a deep layer tilt to the vortex. May still remain somewhat weak regardless.
be61165d16e0995ce60dcd90f347aa43.gif

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9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Convection is trying to wrap upshear around the LLC. The mid-to-upper easterly flow might be starting to amplify now. We'll see if that can counter the high speed low level flow somewhat for less of a deep layer tilt to the vortex. May still remain somewhat weak regardless.
be61165d16e0995ce60dcd90f347aa43.gif

Going to be interesting tonight. 

Definitely could see some strengthening tonight.

The convection is trying to pull around the center and water vapor shows further development possible over night.

Plus the dry air to the NW is being cut off. 

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1 hour ago, Prospero said:
  • Toilet paper - check (From COVID panic)
  • Water - check (Leftover from Irma in gallon jugs a little shrunken)
  • Canned food - check (from many years of storms)
  • Batteries - check (Every year, every season)
  • Beer - Time to stock up! (Never enough)

That has been a pre-requisite in my new home since i moved down here.

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6 minutes ago, wizards93939 said:

Stfu clown. 

I beat the nws and noaa on every severe and hurricane outlook. My track record speaks for itself. 

You are a known troll , you hype every event I know you from the NYC forum.

How many times do I have to ban you? Sigh......goodbye

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25 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Little speck of -80° cloud popping up...

Screenshot_20210701-195959_Chrome.jpg

I've been watching that. The organization this evening has improved greatly over the last few hours.

I think that judging by the satellite. Mid and UL becoming stacked with the LLC.

But by 5am advisory looking at a stout TS/min hurricane.

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Regardless of the final outcome, this system wants to grow.  Outflow is looking better based off of latest ir. I think we  should see slow intensification until the islands,  I would guess more than TS status but I’m not a met and just guessing

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Elsa?

"Elsa has the magical ability to create and manipulate ice and snow. She inadvertently sends Arendelle into an eternal winter on the evening of her coronation. Throughout the film, she struggles first with controlling and concealing her abilities and then with liberating herself from her fears of unintentionally harming others, especially her younger sister."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsa_(Frozen)

Reminds me of Prospero a little. Guess Elsa is dabbling in Tropical Storms, maybe tired of snow and ice. ;)

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I’d lean bearish on near term intensity. Having such a fast forward motion and attendant strong fetch on the northern side is going to favor a very lopsided system even if shear and dry air are negligible. I suspect that the system will appear reminiscent of some of those later season gulf storms from recent years that suffer from the same issue, just rotated 90 degrees. Think the best shot for respectable intensification is after FH48 when this is in the eastern Caribbean and slowing down.

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

You ready for the 4th and a hurricane party?

We might have a Matthew and Irma track going on.

 

My Birthday is the 6th. Actually loving the thought of a storm on the way, but also hoping it is nothing but a good ol' fun storm with some cool waves, respectable wind and rain, no power outages. I'll accept some minor yard clean up with typical tree debris which we get every season no matter what. It's a delicate balance.

Party? Of course, but please no Matthew or Irma! Irma was over two weeks with no power, a nightmare. Even Hermine's one serious band put a trash oak on our house and knocked out power. TS Debbie was strong and dumped 16 inches of rain on us. That was a bit over the top even for me.

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11 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I’d lean bearish on near term intensity. Having such a fast forward motion and attendant strong fetch on the northern side is going to favor a very lopsided system even if shear and dry air are negligible. I suspect that the system will appear reminiscent of some of those later season gulf storms from recent years that suffer from the same issue, just rotated 90 degrees. Think the best shot for respectable intensification is after FH48 when this is in the eastern Caribbean and slowing down.

You can already see that the strong flow aloft is not  going be much of an issue.

And the lower levels will start slowing down as the ridge breaks down ahead of the incoming troughs.

Minimal shear aloft plus the surface ridge axis splits and creates a "fork in the road" 

This storm will start slowing down. Before it curves. Eastern GOM or EC of FL.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, FLweather said:

You can already see that the strong flow aloft is not  going be much of an issue.

And the lower levels will start slowing down as the ridge breaks down ahead of the incoming troughs.

Minimal shear aloft plus the surface ridge axis splits and creates a "fork in the road" 

This storm will start slowing down. Before it curves. Eastern GOM or EC of FL.

 

 

We'll take this one in the GOM as the East Coast of FL does not need anything right now during the "search and rescue" which for whatever its worth is still "search and rescue."

Later in the in the season, we'll pass and watch the chasers on Miami Beach on our PCs and TVs from our homes on the Gulf.

Fair enough?

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21 minutes ago, Prospero said:

 

Party? Of course, but please no Matthew or Irma! Irma was over two weeks with no power, a nightmare. Even Hermine's one serious band put a trash oak on our house and knocked out power. TS Debbie was strong and dumped 16 inches of rain on us. That was a bit over the top even for me.

What are you going to do when you get a real storm? I feel like all of western Florida except the charley zone is in for a rude awakening sometime soon. 

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1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

What are you going to do when you get a real storm? I feel like all of western Florida except the charley zone is in for a rude awakening sometime soon. 

We've been spared direct hits, but I was here for Charlie, Francis, and Jeane, which all took down trees and power, and countless damaging storms since then. Irma was the worst. But in our circle of friends and family, homes and businesses have been destroyed, who knows how much financial loss we have all endured -- almost every year on some level. Last year was an oddity they all missed us. We've been awoken rudely so many times, but yes no direct hits in the Tampa Bay area for a long time. I was a kid with Agnes, the highest storm surge I have ever seen. Wiped out a lot of businesses on the beaches.

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15 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

What are you going to do when you get a real storm? I feel like all of western Florida except the charley zone is in for a rude awakening sometime soon. 

Irma made landfall near Naples as a cat 3...

If anyone is in for a rude awakening it's the east coast of Florida.  Hasn't had a hurricane landfall since Katrina.

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