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Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier
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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Sky is brightening to the west and winds are kicking up a bit again.  Atmosphere may try to recharge.

Near Kankakee right now, sun is shining, some wispy high shit that I don't know the name of along with some rising cumulus. Looks great

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 Mesoscale Discussion 1112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Lower
   Michigan...northwestern Indiana...central Illinois...into east
   central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 321...

   Valid 261947Z - 262145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 321 continues.

   SUMMARY...More substantive thunderstorm intensification is ongoing
   and likely to continue through late afternoon.  Stronger storms will
   continue to pose a risk for tornadoes, with organizing clusters also
   posing a risk for damaging downbursts.  Areas east and southwest of
   Tornado Watch 321 are being monitored for the possibility of
   additional watches.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant convectively generated surface
   boundary/deformation zone between a pair of MCV remains the primary
   focus for deepening convective development and scattered vigorous
   embedded thunderstorm activity.  Boundary layer dewpoints are
   increasing through the lower 70s F across interior southern Lower
   Michigan, and remain in the mid 70s F southwest of Chicago into the
   St. Louis area along this zone, where low-level hodographs also
   remain sizable beneath a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet. 
   The primary jet core now appears to be nosing into southern Lower
   Michigan, but a secondary core appears to be currently migrating
   across/northeast of the St. Louis area.

   Despite weak lapse rates, the high boundary-layer  moisture content
   appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. 
   Coupled with the strong low-level vertical shear, the environment
   appears to be coming increasingly conducive to strengthening
   low-level mesocyclones within the stronger storms through late
   afternoon.  These may occasionally pose a risk for tornadoes and/or
   strong downbursts.
 

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Tornado Warning for South Bend IN.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
409 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern St. Joseph County in north central Indiana...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Gulivoire Park, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  South Bend around 415 PM EDT.
  Mishawaka, Georgetown and Roseland around 425 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Osceola and Granger.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 76 and
87.

 

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Here we go again.

WFUS53 KLOT 262034  
TORLOT  
ILC105-262115-  
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0015.210626T2034Z-210626T2115Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 334 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A   
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHENOA, OR 8 MILES WEST OF FAIRBURY,   
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  FAIRBURY AROUND 350 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
PONTIAC.  
  
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...  
 I-55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 189 AND 195, AND NEAR MILE MARKER 203.  
   
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A  
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
  
  

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Storm aspect of it is pretty lame, wouldn't even call it heavy rain for having 2" PWATS. Maybe 34-40mph gusts right arounf the time tornado warning was issued. Sirens never went off. Lightning stopped just before the rain got here. Just a moderate rain falling.

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Confirmed tornado in MI.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
448 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

MIC067-262145-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210626T2145Z/
Ionia MI-
448 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
IONIA COUNTY...

At 448 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Lake Odessa, or 9
miles west of Portland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Ionia around 455 PM EDT.
  Portland around 500 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lyons,
Hubbardston, Pewamo and Muir.

 

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Got your warning......

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
356 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 355 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR LIMESTONE, OR NEAR BOURBONNAIS, MOVING NORTHEAST  
  AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  MANTENO AROUND 410 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
PEOTONE AND BEECHER.  
  
THIS INCLUDES...  WILL COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.  
   
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...  
 I-57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 318 AND 330.  
   

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From MKX's afternoon AFD:

Quote
his afternoon a corridor of SBCAPE to 1000 J/kg has built for
counties over southeast Wisconsin. While MLCAPE is low suggesting
some capping, some pop-up showers have formed. Effective Bulk
Shear is impressive pushing 50kts over the area, so we`ll keep an
eye out to see if anything takes off. The severe potential has
really been sabotaged by lingering cloud cover and the threat
still remains marginal.

Good to know they think just like me. :lol:

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southwest of Lansing MI - confirmed tornado

5CiDCGX.jpg

Quote


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN EATON COUNTY...
        
At 514 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located between Olivet and 
Charlotte, moving northeast at 35 mph.

 

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5 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

To be truthful I have somewhat higher anxiety for this oncoming line of storms than I did for the first because of boundaries laid down by the first line and we are approaching "the magic hour."

I'm not sure the threat is higher for this round than the one before.  Low level flow actually looks more veered in the wake of the earlier activity.  Talking strictly about our area.  Still a chance though.  

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

southwest of Lansing MI - confirmed tornado

5CiDCGX.jpg

 

I’m getting concerned about the path this storm is taking. It’s moving in the direction of the Lansing metro area (especially the SE part). If this storm can hold together, there would be concern for a tornado in a highly-populated area.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
426 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 426 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR BEECHER, OR NEAR PEOTONE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  CRETE, UNIVERSITY PARK AND BEECHER AROUND 435 PM CDT.  
  STEGER AND ST. JOHN AROUND 445 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
SAUK VILLAGE, LYNWOOD, FORD HEIGHTS, SCHERERVILLE, CROWN POINT, DYER,  
MERRILLVILLE, HIGHLAND, MUNSTER AND GRIFFITH.  
  

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17 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

Two alerts for a tornado warning in one day. That’s a personal best for me.

I thought we had multiple warnings on the evening of Cristobal last year.  Maybe just close by then?

There's a pic on twitter of a low hanging funnel in Dyer from earlier.  Can't tell if it's a tornado.

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