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Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier
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mcd1109.gif.808f5858d6a837b48ff490293c441342.gif

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1109
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri through
   central/northeastern Illinois and adjacent northwestern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261645Z - 261845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely will continue to increase
   through 1-3 PM CDT, posing at least some risk for isolated tornadoes
   and damaging downbursts.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing along a
   narrow corridor of destabilization largely driven by daytime
   heating.  This is occurring near a remnant convectively generated
   surface boundary, along which low-level convergence is focused and
   maintaining mid 70s F surface dew points, from the Greater St. Louis
   metro area north-northeastward into the Greater Chicago area.  This
   is also along the southeastern periphery of a lower/mid tropospheric
   cyclone centered over Iowa, with a remnant MCV also migrating
   northeast of the Springfield, MO area, toward St. Louis.

   Lapse rates are generally weak, but the low-level moisture appears
   to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, which
   could increase to 1500-2000 J/kg with continuing insolation. 
   Furthermore, the axis of destabilization is aligned with a
   south-southwesterly 850 mb jet migrating across the middle
   Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes region.

   Moderate to strong low-level shear will support rotation in
   developing updrafts, some of which may occasionally strengthen and
   pose a risk for at least brief tornadoes.  Otherwise, consolidating/
   upscale growing storm clusters are also possible and may be
   accompanied by a risk for damaging downbursts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/26/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...
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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't know what it is but today just kinda has the feeling of something happening close by.  

Low level flow is slightly veered out ahead of current activity, but still have some low level directional shear to play with.

chi_sfc.gif.de3712afb192132f7f31ae8dc8207129.gif

Didn't take long for that to verify...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE
1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

ILC063-099-105-261730-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210626T1730Z/
LIVINGSTON IL-LA SALLE IL-GRUNDY IL-
1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE AND SOUTHERN GRUNDY
COUNTIES...

AT 1201 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DWIGHT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DWIGHT, GARDNER, MAZON, CORNELL, SOUTH WILMINGTON, RANSOM, VERONA AND
KINSMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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In addition to my own Calumet region I am also getting really concerned for north central IN because of higher helicity, breaks in the overcast, and discrete cells starting to pop up ahead of the main line.  Although cells are moving ne at around 40 mph the line seems to be moving fairly slowly eastward.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Some crazy flooding scenes around Detroit and just to the North.. Some rainfall totals, my area definitely just missed the heavy stuff.

Garden City: 6.61"

Grosse Pointe: 6.50"

SE Ann Arbor: 5.34"

Ypsilanti: 4.75"

Detroit City: 4.74"

Ann Arbor: 4.22"

Detroit Metro: 2.38"

Wyandotte: 1.62"

What's really crazy is that, based on everything I can find, there was virtually no lightning with this activity. 

It's extremely unusal to see those type of rainfall amounts (outside a Tropical Storm / Hurricane) without lightning. 

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Been getting some decent gusts out ahead of this activity.  The corridor as a whole does not seem to be in a hurry to shift eastward so looks like it will still be a while til anything gets in here.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
208 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CRETE, OR OVER  
  STEGER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  ST. JOHN AROUND 215 PM CDT.  
  SAUK VILLAGE, LYNWOOD AND FORD HEIGHTS AROUND 220 PM CDT.  
  SCHERERVILLE, LANSING AND DYER AROUND 225 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
HIGHLAND, MUNSTER, MERRILLVILLE, GRIFFITH AND GARY.  
  
THIS INCLUDES...  ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY.  
   

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11 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
208 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CRETE, OR OVER  
  STEGER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  ST. JOHN AROUND 215 PM CDT.  
  SAUK VILLAGE, LYNWOOD AND FORD HEIGHTS AROUND 220 PM CDT.  
  SCHERERVILLE, LANSING AND DYER AROUND 225 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
HIGHLAND, MUNSTER, MERRILLVILLE, GRIFFITH AND GARY.  
  
THIS INCLUDES...  ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY.  
   

Looks to be on a similar path to the one in Dyer on Memorial Day 2019.  Gonna be a close pass...

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

What's really crazy is that, based on everything I can find, there was virtually no lightning with this activity. 

It's extremely unusal to see those type of rainfall amounts (outside a Tropical Storm / Hurricane) without lightning. 

I can attest...no thunder, no lightning 

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