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Central PA - Summer 2021


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23 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

651d6a16f33fa0094448241a7e05b7dc.jpg
Guess this line determines the haves and have nots.


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South and East of that line has the best shot at tornados later. Lancaster seems to be in an odd spot: not exactly in the "heaviest" rain axis but also not SE enough for the best Tornado chance. However, I assume as this begins to shift a bit east the axis of rain will also shift with it

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3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

maybe that will help keep our totals down. 

The biggest bulk of our rain is gonna come later this afternoon/evening where we have a period of a few hours dropping 1-2 inch per hour rates. But it also matters where exactly the heaviest rain sets up so we'll have to see where that happens

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6 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The biggest bulk of our rain is gonna come later this afternoon/evening where we have a period of a few hours dropping 1-2 inch per hour rates. But it also matters where exactly the heaviest rain sets up so we'll have to see where that happens

Hrrr depicts what I’d call a pivot zone or deform like area you’d see in winter storms. Whoever gets caught in that zone floods 

 

looks to be close to Garrett County now

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12 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hrrr depicts what I’d call a pivot zone or deform like area you’d see in winter storms. Whoever gets caught in that zone floods 

 

looks to be close to Garrett County now

We also got one in Allegheny (as evidenced by the large amount of warnings over us) and got 2-3 inches in a 6 hour span.

 

it is causing significant issues.

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Strong wording for CTP
e post-tropical transition of Ida (interaction with the mid- latitude westerlies and quasi-stationary front draped near the MD/PA line) will bring extreme rainfall and considerable flooding impacts to south central PA today into early Thursday. Strong signals in the latest hires ensemble guidance leads to high confidence extreme 24-hr rainfall totals of 4 to 6+ inches with local amounts up to 8 inches possible. The 01/00Z HREF probability of 24hr QPF to exceed 100yr ARI is 70-100% which increases confidence in extreme rainfall even more. To put this into a more localized climatological perspective, we are forecasting a top-5 maximum daily rainfall total at Harrisburg. 
 
 

433bd98a7a7918080d19a4bc9f114d2a.jpg


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3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

We also got one in Allegheny (as evidenced by the large amount of warnings over us) and got 2-3 inches in a 6 hour span.

 

it is causing significant issues.

Yes thanks for pointing that out.  Your band is sinking south as the band around Morgantown is still pushing north.  That’s the zone 

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Been moderate to heavy rain all morning and since the later overnight hours here. Bit of a breeze too.

 The next several hours are when the worst of this in terms of rainfall rates traverses central and the LSV. Circled on the image is the area of enhanced heavy rainfall that has shown up well on all the model guidance the last few days. Roughly south of the dashed line I drew is generally where I think the heaviest rain will reside. Very concerned about my area and especially along the turnpike where parts of Bedford/Fulton/Franklin saw heavy rain last night before this main precip shield. I’d be willing to bet that double digit amounts have the best chance of showing up in that area. 

1472961367_Screenshot2021-09-01at10_53_03AM.thumb.png.1bdb1c4bde32e5bfd0b9d0960f19cfee.png

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I was this morning at Home depot. 

Current radar has several heavy cells over York county 

As of 11AM we have 1.56 imby in Springettsbury township, York county.

I’m far enough south/central that I might be spared the higher totals shown for northern York county, Dauphin and Cumberland. Hope everyone is safely riding this out.

(Edit: thanks to Bubbler for sharing the iweathernet link; I don’t have a rain gauge)

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