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Central PA - Summer 2021


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15 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll bite. Once. :) 

I'm fully vaccinated and have been for months. My wife just got her first dose last week and will be fully vaccinated in August. None of my 4 grown kids have gotten vaccinated, and all of them have ZERO interest in getting jabbed. 

As much as I'd personally like them to, and as much as I'd love to see the nationwide percentage be much higher than it is, the CDC has done nothing to instill trust (and confidence) in making Covid-related decisions. My kids were done with all of this months ago...I fear that their tune will change if and when they get sick, which I'm starting to believe increasingly will happen. Fact is, my kids (ages 19 up to 26) are just a small sample of our nation's opinion on this. So many people have tuned out due to changing messages, conflicting reports, he said this, she said that...they're over it. They don't care. Like I said, it bothers me greatly but I can't change their minds. And I go through all of this...all the conversations that we've had, all of the reports that I read, everything that we do know about the virus and it's variants - and I come to the realization that this is something that we're going to be dealing with for a very long time. 

Right now, the cases seem to be growing at a quicker rate than any of the previous waves. And yet so many people aren't even aware of what's happening AND don't care. 

 

everyone in my family is vaxxed except for 1 nephew (42). dead set against it. it makes for good debates at the pool when everyone is on his chit. With all the med calls i go on, i'm glad i got it, though i more worry of exposure to fentanyl or getting hit by a rubbernecker on interstate calls then getting covid

15 hours ago, canderson said:

The issue is if you're asymptomatic you can still spread to others. I couldn't give a shit less about an adult who dies who decided not to get a proven vaccine because Darwin awards have to go to somebody and the country could use less people. But Covid is known to cause heart issues in young kids who can't be vaccinated yet and I don't want to ever jeopardize a child. Full vaccination significantly protect you, but all vaccines show diminished effectiveness against Delta, compared to other versions of the virus. It's likely rare, but it's a thing and I don't ever want to lead to a sick kiddo. 

This will be lone post on this topic.

Back to weather - two months until we will be in full fall (aside from some hot days here or there)! 

I'm hoping for a true fall this year. 

12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Surprised it was removed since others (like myself) had posted stuff.    I did see a moderator in this forum an hour or two ago.

That's rare isn't it? i didn't think us perfect angels needed moderating :D

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2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

everyone in my family is vaxxed except for 1 nephew (42). dead set against it. it makes for good debates at the pool when everyone is on his chit. With all the med calls i go on, i'm glad i got it, though i more worry of exposure to fentanyl or getting hit by a rubbernecker on interstate calls then getting covid

I'm hoping for a true fall this year. 

That's rare isn't it? i didn't think us perfect angels needed moderating :D

I think someone complained as I saw a Green Tagger at the bottom of the list and then an hour later MJS said his post was gone.  

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59 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z has the SER bring the transient heat this time but it (SER) too is being pushed around by the next trough from the north...540 line et all. 

Still no indication that heat really wins on the GFS or any other model. This time it’s the 0z that has a little more of it, for those who believe in that stuff.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some of the northern areas are in D3 and D4 drought status as well.   A fairly sticky 62 here this AM. 

Not being in D3 and D4 could be the thing that saves us easterners from any ridiculous heat. I mean I know you’re in a somewhat dry period, but it’s got nothing on the situation west of the Mississippi. Especially in Pittsburgh, which I’ve been told just doesn’t get droughts.

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Still no indication that heat really wins on the GFS or any other model. This time it’s the 0z that has a little more of it, for those who believe in that stuff.

Each run finds a reason, sometimes different sometimes similar, to bring back the cool regime after a few days of moderate heat around the first weekend of August. 

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Just now, TimB84 said:

Not being in D3 and D4 could be the thing that saves us easterners from any ridiculous heat. I mean I know you’re in a somewhat dry period, but it’s got nothing on the situation west of the Mississippi.

My dry period is a lot better than even last year and of course nothing like out West.  Last year was the worst drought this area had ever seen according to the locals.   Some 3-4 months with just 1" of rain total between all the months.  So my comments about drought and dry are more about saving the grass vs. a major drought.  

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

My dry period is a lot better than even last year and of course nothing like out West.  Last year was the worst drought this area had ever seen according to the locals.   Some 3-4 months with just 1" of rain total between all the months.  So my comments about drought and dry are more about saving the grass vs. a major drought.  

I hadn’t really thought about it, but my grass is a little crunchy now. I think I got a pop-up storm at some point in the past 10 days, so mine would be a bit higher, but PIT’s past 10 day precip total stands at 0.01”.

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I hadn’t really thought about it, but my grass is a little crunchy now. I think I got a pop-up storm at some point in the past 10 days, so mine would be a bit higher, but PIT’s past 10 day precip total stands at 0.01”.

Does not take long to dry up. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Does not take long to dry up. 

No, and it was a sneaky dry stretch. I was actually kind of surprised to realize this morning that we’ve gone 10 days with almost no rain. I checked 3 weather stations close to me, and none of them had more than .10” for that entire stretch.

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9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Severe storms tomorrow, tornado threat too

 

 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks.  Western half of PA in marginal for storms today as well.  

Speaking of things that snuck up on me. Wonder if tomorrow goes ENH for anyone.

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9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

 

Speaking of things that snuck up on me. Wonder if tomorrow goes ENH for anyone.

Although modeling looks very active for pop up showers, the typical Cape numbers are not all that impressive in several I just randomly checked...including near you.   Temps are fairly moderate as well.  Not even showing any 90's today now.   Mid 80's tomorrow. 

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33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think someone complained as I saw a Green Tagger at the bottom of the list and then an hour later MJS said his post was gone.  

Its the new norm.  Sad but true.  We've all seen some fiesty debates here and other places, but now those with keyboard power can control the conversation....and as i watched Johns Hopkins's Dr Makary (and others) questioning the CDC and some of its inconsistencies....I hope the keyboard cops think about it before they hit the delete/ban buttons.

Like it or not, there are many varying opinions about why the change in mask usage is being forced upon us.  If you think politics isn't part of it....well, I REALLY feel for you.  

If you dont see me for a while.....hello communism.     

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Although modeling looks very active for pop up showers, the typical Cape numbers are not all that impressive in several I just randomly checked...including near you.   Temps are fairly moderate as well.  Not even showing any 90's today now.   Mid 80's tomorrow. 

CTP seems a little more bullish on the severe potential tomorrow than PBZ. They even have the severe wording in point/zone forecasts. PBZ says primarily showers with a few thunderstorms.

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13 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Surprised it was removed since others (like myself) had posted stuff.    I did see a moderator in this forum an hour or two ago.

 

10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't see your post, but I'm sorry it was removed. :( I don't know why you were singled out. 

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it??  Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it?  I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it.  I mean, it even got a like from @paweather haha.  Again, I agree it was too long but didn't think that was grounds for removal.  I always try and come from a place of reason and data, with a little opinion sprinkled in ha.  Heck, I recall when the first major worldwide data dump on covid came way back when from the Italian Ministry of Health and I was all over it haha.  You know, the one that first showed us that the average age of death from covid was roughly equivalent to the overall age of death in the population at-large and that covid victims had an average of ~2.5 comorbidities.  Data that was only reaffirmed over time by other countries.  Also a bit disappointing that I can never view that post anywhere again, even privately, because I did put a good bit of effort into it.  I digress but I just abhor censorship of any type, particularly for reasonable arguments that were only made after numerous others had broached the topic.

Anyway, looks like I bottomed out at 64 again last night.  Severe potential seems to be increasing for tomorrow, will have to look into that a little deeper.  Might even have a stray storm around today, will someone get lucky?  Stay tuned!

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

CTP seems a little more bullish on the severe potential tomorrow than PBZ. They even have the severe wording in point/zone forecasts. PBZ says primarily showers with a few thunderstorms.

I think some of that may be due to timing, right?  The main area of forcing goes through you guys in the AM. 

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53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My dry period is a lot better than even last year and of course nothing like out West.  Last year was the worst drought this area had ever seen according to the locals.   Some 3-4 months with just 1" of rain total between all the months.  So my comments about drought and dry are more about saving the grass vs. a major drought.  

Man, it's always easy to forget just how different conditions can be in locations not separated by much distance.  I'm only like 60 miles northeast of you and last summer I had 3.6" in June, 4.07" in July, and 8.34" in August.  This summer has not been nearly as kind to me.  I had forgotten just how rough you guys had it out that way.  Hopefully you don't see anything near that bad again.

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12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it??  Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it?  I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it.  I mean, it even got a like from @paweather haha.  Again, I agree it was too long but didn't think that was grounds for removal.  I always try and come from a place of reason and data, with a little opinion sprinkled in ha.  Heck, I recall when the first major worldwide data dump on covid came way back when from the Italian Ministry of Health and I was all over it haha.  You know, the one that first showed us that the average age of death from covid was roughly equivalent to the overall age of death in the population at-large and that covid victims had an average of ~2.5 comorbidities.  Data that was only reaffirmed over time by other countries.  Also a bit disappointing that I can never view that post anywhere again, even privately, because I did put a good bit of effort into it.  I digress but I just abhor censorship of any type, particularly for reasonable arguments that were only made after numerous others had broached the topic.

Anyway, looks like I bottomed out at 64 again last night.  Severe potential seems to be increasing for tomorrow, will have to look into that a little deeper.  Might even have a stray storm around today, will someone get lucky?  Stay tuned!

I saw the name of the Green Tagger and can PM you with it if you want to ask them for a reason.

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I think some of that may be to timing, right?  The main area of forcing goes through you guys in the AM. 

Correct, some models significantly weaken the MCS coming out of the Upper Midwest (which makes sense given timing), while others don’t weaken it as much.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man, it's always easy to forget just how different conditions can be in locations not separated by much distance.  I'm only like 60 miles northeast of you and last summer I had 3.6" in June, 4.07" in July, and 8.34" in August.  This summer has not been nearly as kind to me.  I had forgotten just how rough you guys had it out that way.  Hopefully you don't see anything near that bad again.

My dry period started the second week of May and stretched until some point in August though I forget exact details of when it started to rain again.  This year is a good example of those convection winners and losers.  I have done "ok" the last month but still below average (probably same as you but maybe you are a little less ok) while Harrisburg has more than doubled their average.   Adams county had it tough as well last year. 

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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it??  Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it?  I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it. 

New World Order...

feelings > facts.  

 

Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask?  I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. 

I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored.....

again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you.

Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

 

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

New World Order...

feelings > facts.  

 

Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask?  I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. 

I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored.....

again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you.

Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

 

This might be the post of the year...and it has nothing to do with snow and everything to do with life in general. 

It needed to be said. 

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29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

New World Order...

feelings > facts.  

 

Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask?  I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. 

I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored.....

again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you.

Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

 

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020 in my opinion.   

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020.   

That was my point yesterday...the ineptness of the CDC.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020 in my opinion.   

 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That was my point yesterday...the ineptness of the CDC.

The only thing I’ll say to this is, we don’t bash meteorologists when they’re wrong or reverse course on something.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020 in my opinion.   

fair points Bubbles....can't ague w/ your statements at all. 

People who feel duped for the reversal, have every right to do so.  The facts AND the data support their frustrations.  

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