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Severe Weather May 3rd 2021


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Monday has looked like an odd setup with funky lower level wind profiles, but the 500mb pattern is definitely intriguing. Euro has slowly been trending towards higher dews farther west, meeting up with the stronger upper level winds. Will be interesting to watch.

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Fairly notable differences for Monday between the core models we typically base our forecasts off, GFS and NAM are further east with the cold front on Monday while the ECMWF develops a triple point with a SFC low across central OK with a weak dryline extending southward into northern Texas. on Monday afternoon/evening. ECMWF solution would actually be quite interesting from a chasing perspective, while the NAM and GFS would probably yield mostly nocturnal SVR-caliber storms along the cold front. 

Interested to see if the 12z Euro "sticks to its guns."

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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

D3 slight not even rrmotely close to the original D5. Barely inside this subforum!

Seems like this is going to be one of these slow years then boom, 1 major event defines the whole season.

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3 hours ago, TheSuckZone said:

Seems like this is going to be one of these slow years then boom, 1 major event defines the whole season.

Or, it could just be like the past few years:

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

At this point, I'll be happy with just getting another derecho in the middle of June (ala 2019). I just want out of this pattern of BN temps and grungy / gloomy skies. 

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Or, it could just be like the past few years:

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

At this point, I'll be happy with just getting another derecho in the middle of June (ala 2019). I just want out of this pattern of BN temps and grungy / gloomy skies. 

You live in Addison TX. Have you not been paying attention to the past week in N TX?

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I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form.

SKimcS6.png

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form.

SKimcS6.png

Those are pretty high CAPE values for 06Z (1 AM CDT), but not entirely unexpected that there would be a capping layer at that time of night.

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The 12z Euro (and at least a couple previous runs) would indicate an MCS forming over OK/MO/AR Monday evening/night. The GFS/NAM not really excited about that at this time. It has been slower with the front when compared to the NAM/GFS as well. 

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Gotta say, it is interesting to see the Hi-Res models are bullish with convection this evening around DFW. 

5000 J/KG of CAPE and nearly 9 C/KM mid-level lapse rates are advertised around the same time on the 3km NAM, so it would be fun.

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This could be another one of those days where we see monster-sized hail somewhere in the Metroplex, if the cap weakens as the Hi-Res models are advertising.

I'm surprised the SPC hasn't at least expanded the Slight Risk area southward along the dry line, given they done so all season up until now when the Hi-Res models looked less impressive. 

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

This could be another one of those days where we see monster-sized hail somewhere in the Metroplex, if the cap weakens as the Hi-Res models are advertising.

I'm surprised the SPC hasn't at least expanded the Slight Risk area southward along the dry line, given they done so all season up until now when the Hi-Res models looked less impressive. 

BTW, I should add, one thing we got going for us this time (finally) is that the much of the day will feature full sunshine.

Couldn't really say that for the other events we've had this season. 

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Just now, weatherextreme said:
 
 
wlHOaPqZ_normal.png
 
The Fort Worth radar (KFWS) is being taken down for a few hours to replace a bearing before the storms develop. It should return to service by 3PM today, if not sooner. #dfwwx #txwx

lol.

I applaud them for doing this ahead of the storms. I just hope nothing else goes wrong that delays this repair.

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spccoday1.tornado.latest.png?v=874

 

HE SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG  
THE DRYLINE TO SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX BEFORE  
SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OK. LARGE BUOYANCY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL  
HAZARDS, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS  
ON THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE THIS EVENING RENDERING  
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW LONG DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MAINTAINED.  
GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE LARGE MLCAPE,  
THERE IS CONCERN FOR AT LEAST CONDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO  
POTENTIAL ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK. IF UPSCALE  
GROWTH OCCURS TOO QUICKLY, THIS MAY NOT BE REALIZED, BUT HAVE  
HIGHLIGHTED A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.  
OTHERWISE, UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING  
RENDERING A PREDOMINANT SEVERE WIND THREAT SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST  
TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.  
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