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May 2021 Discussion

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With little to none thru the weekend..Wednesday storms are best threat and even that is iffy . GFS all alone on coastal so that’s tossed. Euro and Canadian are dry the whole weekend. Maybe couple showers Friday evening / night 

Euro and GFS are the same.

Edit-Fri-Sun. Yeah toss Monday cstl.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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A Friday rain-out wouldn't be the worse moral-ethical thing to "suffer".  Most guidance worth using are opening skies to sun, with light wind by dawn on Saturday... Cool drink of water morning vibe to the atmosphere. But +5C 850mb by Saturday afternoon, amid a N flow that is sort of d-slope, most MOS will probably be over assessing the cool complexion at this range - guaranteed. They'll be assuming a lapse mixing depth of 900 mb which is too shallow under solar max.  Now, if it stayed cloudy ... different setting. It's interesting the polar jet is getting more dominating in the guidance ... it's that super synoptic "tuck" tendency f up summer again - but ironically..it's confluence big bubble no trouble us.

Otherwise, would be about perfect timing for making ends meet with hydro maintenance, while not f'ing up everyone's weekend - ...

Or, we can go back to the runs from two days ago that put all that mess on Sunday/Monday...    

I agree the GFS is not likely to succeed over the late weekend.

I also think there's potential convective rain in the fore' here on Wednesday.  Descent theta-e/SB CAPE, ..in a well mixed deep SW flow boundary layer with ample heating through 18z.  Sending an open mid troposphere impulse with a wind max's right exit region nosing into the area may find sufficient triggers in Lake boundaries and/or hill tops over PA/NY and send some activity quickly E ...  I think lapse rates may only be so-so just judging by the more modest height falls.. But 90/72 bath is high octane with even subtle height falls collocated with an approaching jet max toward 00z ... we'll see.  SPC does have the eastern Lakes/OV and NE in "MRGNL" ... That smacks as the type of scenario where they wait until the morning of that day to upgrade.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wednesday is actually pretty close to a fairly decent severe weather potential but looks like that plume of steep lapse rates exits prior to best ingredients/arrival of lift. 

Timing sort of sucks with evening fropa too. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Timing sort of sucks with evening fropa too. 

Yeah that kinda blows. Looks like we may have enough elevated instability into the overnight to keep some activity going, though severe threat will be diminished...but actually could be a decent light snow. There is even some indications for a boost in elevated CAPE across eastern sections overnight 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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This dates back to some of Friday's conversation but tomorrow's temperature forecast may be a bit tricky. NBM gets BDL into the mid-70's with the GFS at 74 and NAM at 72. Was even getting some mixed signals at EWR. I guess tomorrow is just going to be a product of how well we mix? With the warm front in the vicinity there certainly should be some sort of inversion aloft and this is advertised on forecast soundings...NAM is a bit stronger (promoting less mixing) while the GFS is weaker (promoting stronger mixing). It sucks b/c the NAM tends to underdo mixing while the GFS tends to overmix. Tomorrow may be a day where we get late-afternoon high's (5-6 PM) which I thought about Friday. 

One thing I find super interesting though is wind direction...soundings show SSW sfc winds and llvl winds at BDL...you would expect to orientate towards SE or SSE with a warm front approach...but perhaps b/c of the W-E configuration of the front we'll maintain S/SSW? This would be interesting b/c on at least a more SW component we tend to mix better. Anyways...I could see BDL struggle for 70-71 or they mix happy and get 77-78 lol

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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I guess too a question is whether the inversion is warm front related or if there is enough of a southerly component for some marine induced inversion...the later would be huge b/c this would prevent stronger mixing. I would expect if the inversion is more warm front related that gets reduced due to sfc heating and the strong BL winds would help mix better?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

What time of the days Weds do you think has the most potential?

For southern New England I would think the window for showers and thunderstorms is between 5-10 PM...as you go east across the region though the window will increase with time...out in eastern MA probably not until after midnight. Looks like enough instability that many probably see a decent light show.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This dates back to some of Friday's conversation but tomorrow's temperature forecast may be a bit tricky. NBM gets BDL into the mid-70's with the GFS at 74 and NAM at 72. Was even getting some mixed signals at EWR. I guess tomorrow is just going to be a product of how well we mix? With the warm front in the vicinity there certainly should be some sort of inversion aloft and this is advertised on forecast soundings...NAM is a bit stronger (promoting less mixing) while the GFS is weaker (promoting stronger mixing). It sucks b/c the NAM tends to underdo mixing while the GFS tends to overmix. Tomorrow may be a day where we get late-afternoon high's (5-6 PM) which I thought about Friday. 

One thing I find super interesting though is wind direction...soundings show SSW sfc winds and llvl winds at BDL...you would expect to orientate towards SE or SSE with a warm front approach...but perhaps b/c of the W-E configuration of the front we'll maintain S/SSW? This would be interesting b/c on at least a more SW component we tend to mix better. Anyways...I could see BDL struggle for 70-71 or they mix happy and get 77-78 lol

Agreed over all with implied/explicit limitations vs oddities in various guidance.  NAM is weirdly cold biased for tomorrow imho -

I personally don't believe the NAM is right about the T1 temp over Logan between 18z to 00z tomorrow. It's T1 ( 980 mb sigma ...about mid way up the Prudential Tower in eye-ball sense) is  too cold in the FOUS grid....  given/relative to its own synoptic layout even.  It appears overly conserving the 900 to surface lapsing rate from today brief cool down.. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM succeeds here... I suspect the model's maybe hyper sensitively environmentally aware of the Long Island sound?  not sure tho -

I was wondering/considering if the wind direction might be mixing in cold oceanic boundary layer from the S, over eastern zone as culprit.  ALB is warmer at 19C and that's a red flag for this - the impetus being there is no vomit cold shelf waters upstream of that location.  Labrador current condemns this climate to hell in the spring and summer.  ...I really almost want to relo out of New England...the older I get, the more I resent this geo anus. 

 

 

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed over all with implied/explicit limitations vs oddities in various guidance this morning.  NAM is weird for cold bias tomorrow imho -

I personally don't believe the NAM is right about the T1 temp over Logan between 18z to 00z tomorrow. It's T1 ( 980 mb sigma ...about mid way up the Prudential Tower in eye-ball sense) is  too cold in the FOUS grid....  given/relative to its own synoptic layout even.  It appears overly conserving the 900 to surface lapsing rate from today brief cool down.. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM succeeds here.

 

 

The huge issue is when it comes to forecasting temperatures the NAM is flat out garbage. However, the NAM does a good job at sniffing out factors which could result in temperatures coming in below guidance...and come to think about it...has the NAM ever really given signals where temperatures could overshoot guidance lol. It looks like there might be a small pocket of cooler 925 temps (which happen to reside right over much of SNE)...but they do begin to warm significantly late in the afternoon. 

The ingredients are certainly there for a warm day tomorrow...and despite not getting into the true warm sector until very late, with enough sunshine the llvl airmass is plenty warm enough to give lower 70's...especially if can probably mix closer to 850. I foresee BD jumping like 3-5F between 4:00-5:00 PM tomorrow

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For southern New England I would think the window for showers and thunderstorms is between 5-10 PM...as you go east across the region though the window will increase with time...out in eastern MA probably not until after midnight. Looks like enough instability that many probably see a decent light show.

Seems like a fairly dry fropa very similar to yesterday 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The huge issue is when it comes to forecasting temperatures the NAM is flat out garbage. However, the NAM does a good job at sniffing out factors which could result in temperatures coming in below guidance...and come to think about it...has the NAM ever really given signals where temperatures could overshoot guidance lol. It looks like there might be a small pocket of cooler 925 temps (which happen to reside right over much of SNE)...but they do begin to warm significantly late in the afternoon. 

The ingredients are certainly there for a warm day tomorrow...and despite not getting into the true warm sector until very late, with enough sunshine the llvl airmass is plenty warm enough to give lower 70's...especially if can probably mix closer to 850. I foresee BD jumping like 3-5F between 4:00-5:00 PM tomorrow

Yup ... I added to that ( editing...) after the fact...

" ... I suspect the model's maybe hyper sensitively environmentally aware .."

It may be that it is attempting to 'see' too many limitations on heating based on NCEPs dream of having superior BL resolution- but it's like what Mike Ekster and I discussed leaning over a stairwell back in the Providence Easter BB get together days...It's like the model sees too much and it creates its own destructive interference - so to speak...

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like a fairly dry fropa very similar to yesterday 

I don't think it's a dry fropa. Now if people are expecting 0.50-1.00'' of rain they're going to be let down. I think there will be some localized amounts around 0.50'' but for the most part probably a couple tenths of an inch to those who get anything. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... I added to that ( editing...) after the fact...

" ... I suspect the model's maybe hyper sensitively environmentally aware .."

It may be that it is attempting to 'see' too many limitations on heating based on NCEPs dream of having superior BL resolution- but it's like what Mike Ekster and I discussed leaning over a stairwell back in the Providence Easter BB get together days...It's like the model sees too much and it creates its own destructive interference - so to speak...

 

BOOM!

Wants to achieve atmospheric equilibrium too quickly or something 

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