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CAPE

April Long Range Discussion

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Hopefully a -NAO becomes more prevalent again in the coming years, and when it will do some good. We also need a legit Nino to go with it, if that is even possible anymore.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Hopefully a -NAO becomes more prevalent again in the coming years, and when it will do some good. We also need a legit Nino to go with it, if that is even possible anymore.

 

I wish for severe cold next winter. What a depressing winter it was here. Cold could never penetrate East. 

How about all the snow maps with at times 30 inches or more snow depicted.  What a joke Para was and even EPS did poorly. Only psu got his snow. 

The - NAO cycle may be starting,  but as you know impossible to tell. No need to even worry about what next winter will bring, until at least November. I would expect the same typical pattern warm September, warm October and then the sudden flip to colder. 

Looking at the Atlantic I  am glad I had several trees removed. Looks like a warm Atlantic already.   

Once we get away from West winds the next few days and well below average air temps I look for a quick warm up for the surf zone. The SW Atlantic is above normal at this time.     

 

Map of SST anomalies

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

The cold will return when heating oil is $5 a gallon!

Thank goodness for woodstoves! :D

 

Inflation is increasing ! 

 

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Think we may have been spoiled with March with the relative dryness and warmth for the most part of the month. April is looking kinda crappy. Sun and Mon look nice but outside of that we seem to be stuck in between the blocking in the north atlantic and developing storms to our west.  Kinda appears to be an overall blah pattern, maybe not a ton of rain but just dreary and chilly-ish

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18 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Think we may have been spoiled with March with the relative dryness and warmth for the most part of the month. April is looking kinda crappy. Sun and Mon look nice but outside of that we seem to be stuck in between the blocking in the north atlantic and developing storms to our west.  Kinda appears to be an overall blah pattern, maybe not a ton of rain but just dreary and chilly-ish

I am fine with an extended period of cool weather, as long as it isn't cloudy, damp, and dreary. 55-65 is perfect for the first half of April. Early Spring should offer a period similar to Fall, but all too often we switch right to 70s and humid.

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am fine with an extended period of cool weather, as long as it isn't cloudy, damp, and dreary. 55-65 is perfect for the first half of April. Early Spring should offer a period similar to Fall, but all too often we switch right to 70s and humid.

Yeah but it looks like there may be a fair share of days where it is  damp and dreary...caught in between those features kinda says chilly and dreary to me but I hear ya. Hopefully the storms drive up more to our northwest or something

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30 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah but it looks like there may be a fair share of days where it is  damp and dreary...caught in between those features kinda says chilly and dreary to me but I hear ya. Hopefully the storms drive up more to our northwest or something

We are gonna get some rain in a pattern like that in Spring, but hopefully fronts are progressive and we don't get a stalled system that puts us in an easterly flow with clouds, showers, and drizzle for a week.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We are gonna get some rain in a pattern like that in Spring, but hopefully fronts are progressive and we don't get a stalled system that puts us in an easterly flow with clouds, showers, and drizzle for a week.

Definitely potential for that sort of thing though going forward. Back door fronts, cut off lows, etc. 0z GGEM goes full tuck with a coastal next weekend that mostly stalls.

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We are gonna get some rain in a pattern like that in Spring, but hopefully fronts are progressive and we don't get a stalled system that puts us in an easterly flow with clouds, showers, and drizzle for a week.

Great long range agreement for a coastal and possible strong slow moving . And a inland SS can't be ruled out .I'm personally ready to track a strong coastal( 2-5" wind driven rain event).  I've taken advantage for the most part of the 10-15 beautiful days the past month . Plenty of 50-70 sunny to go around.  

Eps 

Interesting look

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8034400.png

 

Ninjd 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We are gonna get some rain in a pattern like that in Spring, but hopefully fronts are progressive and we don't get a stalled system that puts us in an easterly flow with clouds, showers, and drizzle for a week.

You were saying?

 

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My sons first baseball tournament is next weekend, so I’m giving 100% odds of rain, highs in the 40s, wind, and low stratus.

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My sons first baseball tournament is next weekend, so I’m giving 100% odds of rain, highs in the 40s, wind, and low stratus.

I played baseball in the snow several times but in HS in 1991 we played Catoctin HS 1 day and it was blowing snow shortly after 1st pitch and the field got about 2 inches . We played all 7 innings.  I remember countless night games in travel ball /college / independent ML in WV with temps in the 20s . Unfortunately a part of the game but usually short lived and its 55- 65 and sunny 2 days later .

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We are gonna get some rain in a pattern like that in Spring, but hopefully fronts are progressive and we don't get a stalled system that puts us in an easterly flow with clouds, showers, and drizzle for a week.

I'm definitely ready for warmer weather...but I'm a little weird, too, in that I enjoy drizzly, onshore flow conditions for a few days at a pop, anytime of year. I was "landlocked" growing up in northern PA, and moving to this area provided new opportunities to learn how the nearby bay and ocean impact our wx....still fascinates me. I realize that most of you that grew up in this area don't find cool days with fog and heavy drizzle fascinating at all.  ;) 

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Great long range agreement for a coastal and possible strong slow moving . And a inland SS can't be ruled out .I'm personally ready to track a strong coastal( 2-5" wind driven rain event).  I've taken advantage for the most part of the 10-15 beautiful days the past month . Plenty of 50-70 sunny to go around.  

Eps 

Interesting look

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8034400.png

 

Ninjd 

I think you're one of few people who would be wishing that one in lol

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I think you're one of few people who would be wishing that one in lol

Anything anomalous or interesting when it comes to active weather 

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Anything anomalous or interesting when it comes to active weather 

Hey, if thats your prerogative...If it were October Id be more inclined to agree, maybe it would foreshadow a winter event and its generally more expected in October but during baseball season, coming out of winter when outdoor stuff is starting up? No thanks.  I still have to disagree about there being plenty of 60-70 degree days and sunny in this area but okie dokie

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7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I have a feeling early April NAO has maybe anegative correlation to next Winter. 

Chuck...

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44 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

only 7.5 months until tracking season!

Or if you’re losetoa6 two months until this tracking season ends and then 3 until the next one begins.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Or if you’re losetoa6 two months until this tracking season ends and then 3 until the next one begins.

Isnt that the truth haha. Maybe there will be snow showers in June!

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Or if you’re losetoa6 two months until this tracking season ends and then 3 until the next one begins.

I track year around brother.  Snow /Noreasters / flash flood threats/ severe/ tropical ...anything anomalous or interesting weather . I'm definitely not the only weather geek who tracks year around.  Fair weather is a dime a dozen and BORING. But that's my opinion 

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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Or if you’re losetoa6 two months until this tracking season ends and then 3 until the next one begins.

I'm actually kinda in his camp outside of the fantasy chasing snow when it was clear it was over.   I wouldn't mind some slow moving coastal.  I like exciting weather.  But Im just more realistic about it

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16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm actually kinda in his camp outside of the fantasy chasing snow when it was clear it was over.   I wouldn't mind some slow moving coastal.  I like exciting weather.  But Im just more realistic about it

I hear you and tbh I think you come across as a great dude .

 

Its not about being realistic.  It's about choosing to look for how it CAN happen vs how it CAN'T happen.  It's a hobby after all  . Why would I be involved in a hobby to just dwell on the negative. Just saying 

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I hear you and tbh I think you come across as a great dude .

 

Its not about being realistic.  It's about choosing to look for how it CAN happen vs how it CAN'T happen.  It's a hobby after all  . Why would I be involved in a hobby to just dwell on the negative. 

Oh I get it.  I was serious...I would love a cold, cloudy day with heavy rain from a really weird coastal because I know that in about 3 weeks, I'm going to be able to walk outside for 2 minutes before I stew in ball soup.  Every day.  For 5 months.   We can have a cold, rainy days.   The warm, hot weather days more than make up for it. 

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh I get it.  I was serious...I would love a cold, cloudy day with heavy rain from a really weird coastal because I know that in about 3 weeks, I'm going to be able to walk outside for 2 minutes before I stew in ball soup.  Every day.  For 5 months.   We can have a cold, rainy days.   The warm, hot weather days more than make up for it. 

Ban worthy.  

The problem with chilly, drizzly days in April means we will literally flip from 55 to 85/humid.  Give me sustained seasonal in April (60s/70s) and “boring”.

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