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March 25, Thursday Severe Weather

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Well I really hope we do get junk convection in the morning that throws a wrench into this. I see this going very high end or bust completely. I just don’t feel we will get anything between.. Check out this sounding..... nasty

5E44B3C8-CA4E-4924-BE90-8713A9EAA5D9.jpeg

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21 minutes ago, Chip said:

Well I really hope we do get junk convection in the morning that throws a wrench into this. I see this going very high end or bust completely. I just don’t feel we will get anything between.. Check out this sounding..... nasty

5E44B3C8-CA4E-4924-BE90-8713A9EAA5D9.jpeg

Where are you?

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Warm front showers and storms are already getting started. They are a little further north than I expected.


.

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1 hour ago, Chip said:

Well I really hope we do get junk convection in the morning that throws a wrench into this. I see this going very high end or bust completely. I just don’t feel we will get anything between.. Check out this sounding..... nasty

5E44B3C8-CA4E-4924-BE90-8713A9EAA5D9.jpeg

Maybe for your specific area, but for the event as a whole I think there's just too much that's highly favorable to get by without at least a few significant tornadoes tomorrow. My floor for tomorrow is basically a slightly more intense repeat of last Wednesday (add 1 or 2 long-track EF3+), and that's if the warm sector is quite messy.

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So I have some good news… At least temporarily… The new HRRR model came in and has tons of convection that should hamper this event if this verifies! Cross your fingers

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I’m starting to think the cap is going to be strong. NAM is just a epic outbreak except for the strong cap.


.

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SPC AC 250559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
   AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado outbreak is expected today into early this evening across
   parts of the Southeast northward into the Tennessee Valley. Several
   long-track strong tornadoes, destructive winds and very large hail
   are forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley, eastward across
   parts of the Southeast and northward into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across Parts of the Southeast and
   Tennessee Valley Today into Early This Evening...

   ...Southeast/Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...
   A potent shortwave trough and an associated 75 to 90 kt mid-level
   jet will eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains
   today. At the surface, a low will move northeastward and deepen
   across the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley today. Strong
   moisture advection will take place in the lower Mississippi Valley
   as a 50 to 65 kt low-level jet strengthens. Surface dewpoints will
   increase into the 65 to 70 F degree range by late morning throughout
   much of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi and western Alabama. The
   low-level moisture combined with surface heating will result in a
   moderately unstable and volatile airmass by late morning. A band of
   strong large-scale ascent, in advance of the shortwave trough, will
   move quickly northeastward across the Arklatex this morning.
   Convection appears likely to initiate around midday ahead of this
   band of ascent from southeast Arkansas southward into northeast
   Louisiana and eastward into southwest Mississippi. This cluster of
   thunderstorms is expected to organize and rapidly intensify, moving
   northeastward across central and northern Mississippi into
   northwestern Alabama during the afternoon. Moderate instability,
   strong deep-layer shear and impressive amount of lift on a large
   scale will be favorable for widespread severe thunderstorm
   development, and a tornado outbreak is expected.

   RAP and NAM Forecast soundings this afternoon across the warm sector
   from central Mississippi northeastward into northwest Alabama show
   an impressive environment for severe storms. MLCAPE is forecast to
   increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across much of central and
   northern Mississippi by midday. Surface winds are forecast to become
   backed to the south-southeast across the eastern half of
   Mississippi. This combined with 60 kt of flow near 850 mb will
   result in 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 400 to 500 m2/s2
   range. In addition, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet will
   be optimal for the development of tornadic storms. Supercells are
   forecast to develop rapidly after initiation across central
   Mississippi early this afternoon and move quickly
   north-northeastward into northeast Mississippi. Significant tornado
   parameter is forecast to increase to near ten across northeast
   Mississippi and northwest Alabama by 21Z, making conditions very
   favorable for long-track strong tornadoes. As the low-level jet
   consolidates and couples with the progressive mid-level jet, a
   violent long-track tornado will be possible.

   The cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to move from parts
   of northern Mississippi and northern Alabama into the Tennessee
   Valley late this afternoon and early this evening. Supercells and
   bowing line segments will likely be severe, producing wind damage,
   tornadoes and large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
   diameter may occur with the stronger updraft cores. The wind damage
   threat is forecast to become more widespread as a squall line
   organizes along a cold front in the Mississippi Valley. This line of
   severe storms is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Ohio
   and Tennessee Valleys this evening, producing widespread wind
   damage. Wind gusts of greater than 65 knots will be possible.

   Further north in areas near the Ohio River, instability is forecast
   to be considerably weaker than in areas to the south. In spite of
   the weaker instability, enhanced lift and strong deep-layer shear
   will make severe storms possible. As storms move north-northeastward
   across the Ohio Valley this evening, isolated large hail and wind
   damage will accompany supercells and bow echoes. An isolated tornado
   threat will also exist.

   ..Broyles/Cook.. 03/25/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1157Z (7:57AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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3kNAM is showing what Jeff said up above.The  OFB starts to work its way up from MS/AL.In the mean time a inverersion will be into place late morning into early afternoon,this inversion will break early afternoon and the storms should start to explode mid afternoon

 

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2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

3kNAM is showing what Jeff said up above.The  OFB starts to work its way up from MS/AL.In the mean time a inverersion will be into place late morning into early afternoon,this inversion will break early afternoon and the storms should start to explode mid afternoon

 

Do you think they extend that high end area any or do you feel like mostly TN will stay moderate risk?

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12 minutes ago, Chip said:

Do you think they extend that high end area any or do you feel like mostly TN will stay moderate risk?

Not sure

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Chattanooga area needs to be on the look out this morning from the cells in Alabama. Some rotation there.

It’s going to be a wild day. Time to buckle up.

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This just hit me.... With the SRH values as insane as they are isn’t it feasible the updrafts are so strong they rip themselves apart... 

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MRX AM update:

Wanted to talk about the environment expected this afternoon and
evening. The main mid/upper lvl trough continues to dominate much
of the CONUS this morning with the main shortwave showing up
clearly in moisture channels. This shortwave and associated speed
max will translate east as this shortwave digs into the MS river
valley. Impressive kinematics will overspread much of the
southeast this afternoon with 80-100 kt mid level winds. An
associated low level jet is expected to develop late this morning
peaking near 60-70 knots. This LLJ is already starting to be seen
in the HTX Vad wind profile with strengthening flow just above
4kft. From a more mesoscale picture, a warm front is currently
just to our south and west generally from northern MS through
northern AL and into central GA. Plenty of showers continue to
overspread along and north of this boundary. MUCAPE increases just
south of this boundary where an increase in lightning activity
can be seen. This front will continue its northerly motion thorugh
the morning and into the afternoon. All available hi-res guidance
suggests showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
areal coverage through the morning and afternoon. While this
normally will keep boundary layer instability on the lower side, I
think the impressive LLJ will aid in advection and should
overcome this. Also, guidance is pointing at some clearing taking
place late this afternoon. If some sun can come out then this
heating could encourage further increases in instability.

The shear/CAPE parameter space is concerning to say the least.
Deep layer shear will only increase by the afternoon and into the
evening hours. 0-0.5km/0-1km/0-3km shear near 35/45/70 knots
respectively suggest that the environment will be more than
conducive for rotating updrafts today. SRH between 400-600m2/s2
leading to large looping hodographs combined with >300j/kg of
MLCAPE suggests tornado potential increases late this afternoon
and into the early evening for the southern valley and portions of
the Cumberland Plateau. The threat of long-tracked supercellular
structures and long-track tornadoes are also possible given the
low LCL`s, 0-3km CAPE, and impressive near surface shear. Again
this window seems to be from 00z-03z. HREF and HRRR continue to
show several updraft helicity tracks through the area further
increasing confidence of the above. Further severe weather hazards
will be damaging winds and large hail with any of these supercell
structures or any semi-linear convective structures.
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Is. . . is that crayon?

Color pencils. LOL... SPC is doing an hourly update so put their Twitter feed on alert.


.

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6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Color pencils. LOL... SPC is doing an hourly update so put their Twitter feed on alert.


.

Actually pretty cool,like they did in the old days

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