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Central PA - Spring 2021


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With this latest batch of heavier rain moving through, temps have dropped 5 degrees from the upper 50's to the low 50's (53.4).  And with the 8 o'clock obs from MDT showing a temperature of 55 degrees I think it's now virtually a lock that they will break their record low maximum for tomorrow of 57 degrees.  The airport isn't expecting anything above 53 for tomorrow max.  Now we just have to wait until midnight/1:00am for the new day to begin and see what the temp is at that time.  I'm thinking they have a shot at 53 or even 52 degrees for the record low max tomorrow.  That really is amazing for May 29th.  The normal high temp for tomorrow is 77 and the normal low is 57.  We're looking at a 25-degree departure on the high temps for tomorrow.  The date with the normal high temp being 52 degrees is around March 15th!!!  So that really does mean that we are looking at late winter daytime temps throughout our area for the first part of Memorial Day weekend.  Wow!

>>Edit...I forgot to mention that I'm up to 0.65" of rain for the event so far.

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43 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well it doesnt look like the midnight temps are gonna get in the way of any record breaking for tomorrow. Min max record looks to get smashed, perhaps sunday as well. Unreal. What a dreary shitty Memorial Day weekend. But one for the ages. 

Yep.  Just as I predicted 3 hours ago I thought there was a decent chance MDT would be down to 52 before the end of their observational day.  Well, at 10:56pm their temp was 52 degrees.  If it drops to 51 then the only question will be does it exceed 51 during the daytime tomorrow or not.  I think the odds are 50/50 for a 51 degree max for tomorrow or at worst, 52 degrees.  I'm now down to 50.2 degrees with an northeasterly wind of 5-10mph, occasional gusts to 15.  Once my temp reaches 49.9 degrees my weather station will start displaying the wind chill temp...lol!  With a low here of 47 and a sustained wind of 10mph the wind chill would be in the low 40's.  With the rain falling those conditions are simply horrible for being outdoors.  I expect to turn my heat on tomorrow morning as I expect my inside temp to drop to around 70.  That's too cold for me.  I like 72 or 73.  Oh, and by the way, I have absolutely no problem with putting back on my sweats to wear tomorrow and again on Sunday.  One other interesting note is I see Ambient's local forecast has me with a high of 53.0 tomorrow and then drops it further for Sunday down to 50.4.  Hard to imagine Sunday being colder than Saturday.  We'll see.

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The Area Forecast Discussion 11:22p update for Williamsport says:

Record low maximum temperatures possible this weekend (Sat-Sun)
Saturday
Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

I am not sure my sweater will be enough!  I was not expecting this.  Is it possible I will be back in the winter coat again?  Well, yes, with the wind on top of the temperature, it is!

And yet we were well above average very recently.  I have said over and over this spring that this should be the last time for the winter coat but then I have it back on again.  I can't remember another spring like this.  We keep going up and down, up and down.  If we could do this all summer, I wouldn't mind.  I love breaks in the heat.

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5 hours ago, CoralRed said:

The Area Forecast Discussion 11:22p update for Williamsport says:

Record low maximum temperatures possible this weekend (Sat-Sun)
Saturday
Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

I am not sure my sweater will be enough!  I was not expecting this.  Is it possible I will be back in the winter coat again?  Well, yes, with the wind on top of the temperature, it is!

And yet we were well above average very recently.  I have said over and over this spring that this should be the last time for the winter coat but then I have it back on again.  I can't remember another spring like this.  We keep going up and down, up and down.  If we could do this all summer, I wouldn't mind.  I love breaks in the heat.

I agree that breaks in the heat are essential for me to make summer more tolerable. I can handle a few days of 90’s better if I know that there are a few days of 70’s on the way.

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CTP says we need might not get as much rain today as previously anticipated....

Models seems to have shifted in their solutions for later this
afternoon and tonight, whereas previously it appears another
wave would enhance shower activity over the eastern half of
central PA by tonight. It now appears more likely that this area
will be farther east and southeast, with a continuation of
moist southeast flow bringing drizzle and spotty light showers
with less QPF than previously expected later today and tonight.

Regardless, the persistent chilly/moist easterly flow will
maintain unseasonably cool and damp conditions with highs more
typical of March than late May.
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We do have a great chance of making history today. CTP has this in their discussion.

CLIMATE...
Record cold (minimum) high temperatures are possible on Saturday.

Current record cold high temperatures for 5/29 and 5/30:

MDT..57F (1990) | 58F (1953)
IPT..55F (1967) | 53F (1953)
AOO..52F (1990) | 54F (1984)
BFD..49F (1967) | 48F (1984)
STC..51F (1990) | 49F (1953)
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7 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Yep.  Just as I predicted 3 hours ago I thought there was a decent chance MDT would be down to 52 before the end of their observational day.  Well, at 10:56pm their temp was 52 degrees.  If it drops to 51 then the only question will be does it exceed 51 during the daytime tomorrow or not.  I think the odds are 50/50 for a 51 degree max for tomorrow or at worst, 52 degrees.  I'm now down to 50.2 degrees with an northeasterly wind of 5-10mph, occasional gusts to 15.  Once my temp reaches 49.9 degrees my weather station will start displaying the wind chill temp...lol!  With a low here of 47 and a sustained wind of 10mph the wind chill would be in the low 40's.  With the rain falling those conditions are simply horrible for being outdoors.  I expect to turn my heat on tomorrow morning as I expect my inside temp to drop to around 70.  That's too cold for me.  I like 72 or 73.  Oh, and by the way, I have absolutely no problem with putting back on my sweats to wear tomorrow and again on Sunday.  One other interesting note is I see Ambient's local forecast has me with a high of 53.0 tomorrow and then drops it further for Sunday down to 50.4.  Hard to imagine Sunday being colder than Saturday.  We'll see.

1.12” so far for me and sitting at 48. I always find it funny how different people are in their household temp preferences. To some it would seem crazy to think about turning the heat on if you’re sitting at 70 and others have no problem at all with the house being 60. Vice versa there are some who would never consider touching the AC until the house reaches 80. Me? Im good with anything in that general 65-75 range but outside of that the HVAC is getting tuned up. To each his own! 

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19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

1.12” so far for me and sitting at 48. I always find it funny how different people are in their household temp preferences. To some it would seem crazy to think about turning the heat on if you’re sitting at 70 and others have no problem at all with the house being 60. Vice versa there are some who would never consider touching the AC until the house reaches 80. Me? Im good with anything in that general 65-75 range but outside of that the HVAC is getting tuned up. To each his own! 

For us a lot depends on time of day.  64 is fine if we are up and doing things but at night that is a little chilly to get out from the under the covers.  I have my doors wide open right now.  Free A/C Y'all!   Maytown Electric COOP is going to suffer a dent in incoming funds this weekend.

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