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Voyager

Central PA - Spring 2021

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Being that I'm the forum Warmanista, I figured it appropriate for me to start a thread for discussion of all topics and events of the Spring equinox.

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15 hours ago, Voyager said:

Being that I'm the forum Warmanista, I figured it appropriate for me to start a thread for discussion of all topics and events of the Spring equinox.

I need to find some snow maps soon for this Spring thread!

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We could see some thunderstorms by around the end of the work week, possibly severe . Im ready for tha cpa 17 year cicada for  its trophy fishing and easy turtle snatching . Just be sure to protect your fruit bearing  trees if you got them in a few weeks.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I need to find some snow maps soon for this Spring thread!

The GFS is sure to spin something up soon.  It still spinning up a terrible April Fools day for the  warm crew.

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I need to find some snow maps soon for this Spring thread!

Oh no you don't... :P

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A chilly 29 to start off the work week.

It's that time of year - opening up the site this morning and seeing that the last posts in subs happened up to 10 hours ago tells you everything you need to know without going any further.

Come on now, these days that are 67 and sunny just drive my passion for weather. I can’t be the only one.

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10 hours ago, paweather said:

Seems I didn't miss much. LOL. Is my Easter Snowstorm still on track? 

verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter.  Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm.  We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates).  If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the  cannooks and blows up.  Just not sure how that happens...Dunno.

gfs_T2ma_namer_45.png

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47 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter.  Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm.  We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates).  If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the  cannooks and blows up.  Just not sure how that happens...Dunno.

 

GFS has been making early April a freeze out for several runs in a row.

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9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Haven't looked at models much at all for the past 2-3 weeks - is the GFS on an island with that depiction? 

The 6z GFS says that March will go out like a Lion.

Maybe we will have 1 more chance of seeing some snow flakes this season?

39505A64-C5BE-4803-A4F7-C781E091BBC5.png

F3C65A8D-576B-431C-A94F-5C3CE34F1C65.png

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11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Haven't looked at models much at all for the past 2-3 weeks - is the GFS on an island with that depiction? 

Quite busy this week so have not looked much but when I last looked at the euro it did not go out that far yet.  Gas was advertising teens for April 1 or 2 when I looked in the last day or 2

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5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS says that March will go out like a Lion.

Maybe we will have 1 more chance of seeing some snow flakes this season?

 

 

:gun_bandana:You just had to, didn't you??? :P  :lol:

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I have been watching this for a few days it has went from slight to Mod in 24 hours. I think there is more tornado potential with this being a negativity tilted system running into better vertical wind shear and I believe higher MLCAPE values than last weeks positively tilted system . A QLCS is forecast to rip through the OHV over night. At least any tornadoes should be week within the convective line at that point. AR and MO may also be upgraded . If this trend of severe weather  close too or east of the Mississippi becomes a pattern all of Pa. will  experiences more severe storms this spring then it has in the last decade . I hope the south stays safe while good storm data and film can be collected , and I can get a few rumbles within earshot .

image.png.41fdf70274f070184f19f47f31e600b5.png

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

And I thought they just upgraded the GFS?

 

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Well it looks like another windy one inbound . I guess I will be hanging in the basement after work on Friday. The one great thing about high winds is that Nanny also gets quite anxious when its windy and will often hide her wigless head between my legs, pass out cold and snore. When I pull down my zipper and pinch Nannys nose her old hot snore breath tickles my grundle quite splendidly .

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19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

And I thought they just upgraded the GFS?

 

The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there.397729EB-B1D3-4377-90FF-9930E6EDD226.jpeg.4c6f2909f246c945335905af2889a9f4.jpeg

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57 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. 

Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. 

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37 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there.397729EB-B1D3-4377-90FF-9930E6EDD226.jpeg.4c6f2909f246c945335905af2889a9f4.jpeg

I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version)

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version)

The only model I feel “authorized” to criticize is the GFS since our tax dollars pay for it. And it’s been a disaster lately.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. 

Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. 

Ha, yeah, the HRRR I looked at was ... wrong. Shocking! 

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