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Central PA - Spring 2021


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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A chilly 29 to start off the work week.

It's that time of year - opening up the site this morning and seeing that the last posts in subs happened up to 10 hours ago tells you everything you need to know without going any further.

Come on now, these days that are 67 and sunny just drive my passion for weather. I can’t be the only one.

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10 hours ago, paweather said:

Seems I didn't miss much. LOL. Is my Easter Snowstorm still on track? 

verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter.  Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm.  We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates).  If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the  cannooks and blows up.  Just not sure how that happens...Dunno.

gfs_T2ma_namer_45.png

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47 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter.  Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm.  We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates).  If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the  cannooks and blows up.  Just not sure how that happens...Dunno.

 

GFS has been making early April a freeze out for several runs in a row.

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11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Haven't looked at models much at all for the past 2-3 weeks - is the GFS on an island with that depiction? 

Quite busy this week so have not looked much but when I last looked at the euro it did not go out that far yet.  Gas was advertising teens for April 1 or 2 when I looked in the last day or 2

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Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

And I thought they just upgraded the GFS?

 

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19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

And I thought they just upgraded the GFS?

 

The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there.397729EB-B1D3-4377-90FF-9930E6EDD226.jpeg.4c6f2909f246c945335905af2889a9f4.jpeg

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57 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. 

Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. 

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37 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there.397729EB-B1D3-4377-90FF-9930E6EDD226.jpeg.4c6f2909f246c945335905af2889a9f4.jpeg

I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version)

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version)

The only model I feel “authorized” to criticize is the GFS since our tax dollars pay for it. And it’s been a disaster lately.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. 

Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. 

Ha, yeah, the HRRR I looked at was ... wrong. Shocking! 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. 

Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. 

Yes I noticed that as well and thought the same thing.  However, things have been filling in pretty steadily since then and a couple decent downpours rolled through.  Looks like a nice blob blowing up around the Baltimore area heading this way as well.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes I noticed that as well and thought the same thing.  However, things have been filling in pretty steadily since then and a couple decent downpours rolled through.  Looks like a nice blob blowing up around the Baltimore area heading this way as well.

It took all of 5 minutes after I made that post before the floodgates opened and it POURED. Oops. :) And yes...I'm watching that blob over the Baltimore area that is on a trajectory to dump on us if it holds together...

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CTP echoes my wind thoughts but they're even more ominous that I imagined. 

However, main the focus Friday will be on the potential of
strong, gusty winds developing behind the front. Latest model
guidance supports a classic high wind scenario for central Pa,
with strong subsidence and steep low-level lapse rates in dry
slot south of a deepening low pressure track. Forecast soundings
indicate 40kt+ gusts are likely over much of the region Friday.
The strongest isallobaric couplet and best chance of 50kt+
gusts appears targeted for northwest Pa. Given that this event
is still over 48hrs out, have opted to highlight and threat in
the HWO and wait for later guidance to guide any potential high
wind watch.
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