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Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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28 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Shawn Milrad tipped us off to the EML showing up via 00z sounding from LZK/Little Rock...

2021032500.72340.skewt.parc.gif

Good ole Shawn has had his Twitter account on private for ages...

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15 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Lolol that's Spann's way of saying/identifying he's 1 of us! He definitely doesn't intend to "degrade" fellow weather enthusiasts!

Very few meteorologists in the US puts forth as much effort as James Spann to personally interact with his followers/fans/viewers. 

Edit to add about Spann's almost unprecedented efforts to engage with his viewers. 

Spann has his upside and downside, but the man knows his landmarks and local geography to an unbelievable extent....and I’m almost certain these details save some people’s lives in crunch time.

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If you want a good idea of what our lapse rates are going to be looking like tomorrow, take a peak at the MAF and DRT 00z RAOBs. 

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CIPS analogs deep into weenie territory now, but the pre-frontal signal for long track tornadoes in the MS/AL vicinity has been very consistent. It also aligns closely to a blend of CAMs. I won’t mention the top analog, but I will say the forecast LLJ tomorrow at 00z is stronger than any of the 15 analogs.

PRLONGTC01_nam212F024.png

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This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update.

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  • Weenie 2

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update.

inb4 60% sig /s

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update.

The man, the myth, the legend.

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HRRR seems to be becoming progressively **less messy with each run. Not a good trend. If it means anything to you, 04z HRRR also pops a 200+ mile long UH track.

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Broyles mentions violent long-track tornadoes will be possible. Even name checks STP increasing to ten. Not sure how often I’ve seen violent long-track tornadoes or STP mentioned in an outlook discussion.

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Normally you see forecast soundings like this localized along a warm front or at the triple point, but almost never do you see something like this taking shape over an entire region. Click anywhere from the KY/TN border down to I-20 and you're gonna get something that looks like this. These are the types of environments that produce violent tornadoes, and the spatial expanse of this type of environment tomorrow is nothing short of jaw dropping. Barring slowed warm front progression or storm mode concerns, I just don't see how we get away from this event unscathed. This is a totally different animal from last wednesday. Not even comparable.

As such, if confidence increases, I wouldn't be surprised to see the high stretch in that area from the I-20 corridor to the KY/TN border.

Image

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Sorry for the drive-by as I have been focusing on the impacts of this rapidly deepening surface low in my local area, but agree with the consensus here... this setup looks like big problems, and I'll be surprised if we're debating a high risk bust this time.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sorry for the drive-by as I have been focusing on the impacts of this rapidly deepening surface low in my local area, but agree with the consensus here... this setup looks like big problems, and I'll be surprised if we're debating a high risk bust this time.

I'm pretty sure there has not been a high risk issued in the history of high risks where people think we will be debating the busts in 24 hours time. That's kinda the point of the high risk -- the numbers are maxed out so the high risk goes up. Just my .02.

I'm still not completely overwhelmed by this setup, but the very high significant tornado index numbers across parts of AL/TN are certainly eyebrow raising. I'll be surprised if we make it through today without an EF3 somewhere.

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After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode.  Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario...

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2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode.  Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario...

So what is the ceiling here?

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1 minute ago, Chip said:

So what is the ceiling here?

The ceiling is certainly a historic, and unfortunately destructive and deadly, outbreak.

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Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

Both the 7z hrrr and the latest 11z hrrr... yikes

All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh?

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