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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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St Louis issues first svr warning for Lewis County in ne MO, the first warning of what may be our first genuine svr concerns for central IL this season.

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Just now, Indystorm said:

Svr storm watch issued for much of central lL until 9 p.m.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0131.html

ww0131_overview_big.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   245 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Illinois
     East-central Missouri

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
     900 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Initial cluster with multiple supercells should develop
   east across the Mississippi River into central Illinois. Additional
   storms may develop farther south in east-central Missouri.
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Funny look with the counties that are in the polygon but not actually in the watch.  Guess LOT didn't want to put any of their counties in.

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Bulk wind shear and helicity are both starting to increase from southern to central IL per SPC mesopage.  Line starting to bulge and separate in a few places.  This could get interesting.

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Stuck in the Dr. office watching radarscope and each warning picks up speed :lol:

I'm not overly optimistic, they always weaken or split as they near and restrengthem after passing. I just hate being windowless 

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6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Approaching the two big cells at the end of the line now

Looks like Tail-End Charlie coming up on Virginia, IL might do something.

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Looks like Tail-End Charlie coming up on Virginia, IL might do something.

It is rotating in the mid levels.


.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
450 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 450 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER ARENZVILLE, OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEARDSTOWN,  
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  VIRGINIA AND LITERBERRY AROUND 510 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
PHILADELPHIA.  

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
525 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ILC017-129-137-167-032245-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210503T2245Z/
Menard-Sangamon-Cass-Morgan-
525 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MENARD...NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON...SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 525 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Pleasant Plains,
or 14 miles east of Virginia, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
530 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 529 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLEASANT  
  PLAINS, OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 30  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  ATHENS AROUND 550 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
SALISBURY, LINCOLNS NEW SALEM, CANTRALL AND CAPITAL AIRPORT

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