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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The way the trough has evolved on modeling it's almost TOO negatively tilted, resulting in rather meridional 500mb flow, which seems to mostly lag behind the warm sector.

Sunday apparently is now also of interest across the same general area.

Well, if anything that'll work better for me so I guess we'll see 

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Fairly complex scenario/evolution of things today...

The first two MCS that have been moving across MN/WI early this morning into early this afternoon have sort of merged/organized into one complex, now affecting E WI...and likely eventually pushing into MI as well.

Further west, I had mentioned earlier this morning that any local potential would depend on festering activity on the southern edge of the morning MCS's. This activity survived the morning and also has organized into an MCS along the MN/IA border. This MCS has a fairly good environment ahead of it, characterized by a solid instability/moisture/theta-e reservoir, quality shear with multiple waves/MCV's riding the north edge of the ridge, and a nice thermal ridge nosing in. Should see this MCS ride E or ESE, near/along the OFB in place from earlier activity across N IA/S WI.

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To add to the above, SPC will need to add a slight risk to portions of IA/S WI/N IL with the the 20z SWODY1.

If not for potential issues with the lead re-organizing complex in E WI and capping concerns, one could push for an ENH risk for that aforementioned corridor.

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To add to the above, SPC will need to add a slight risk to portions of IA/S WI/N IL with the the 20z SWODY1.
If not for potential issues with the lead re-organizing complex in E WI and capping concerns, one could push for an ENH risk for that aforementioned corridor.

I’ve seen enough to say an ENH is needed on the 20z update in a corridor across NE IA into N IL.


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This one will be blowing up phones:

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

IAC019-055-061-242045-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-210824T2045Z/
Buchanan IA-Dubuque IA-Delaware IA-
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN DUBUQUE AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES...

At 309 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Strawberry Point to near Dundee to Masonville,
moving east at 45 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR northeast Buchanan and northern
Deleware county!

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Manchester and Edgewood around 320 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Delhi, Greeley, Delaware, Oneida, Earlville, Colesburg, Dyersville,
New Vienna, Worthington, Epworth, Farley, Holy Cross, Luxemburg and
Bankston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4267 9088 4241 9087 4235 9111 4240 9180
      4253 9176 4264 9175 4265 9090 4267 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 277DEG 40KT 4265 9157 4252 9158 4245 9160

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

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